Why polls so far out:
History tells us since Gallup started polling presidential contest after WWII, pundits have concluded that if the incumbent is not consistently over 50% in overall approval a year out from the election that he is vulnerable to defeat.
Furthermore it has been found that no incumbent has ever won re-election if his overall approval number going into the fall election was under 47%. By the same token any incumbent going into the fall campaign at above 51% has been re-elected. You could call the gap in between (47%-51%) no man’s land, where the election could go either way.
President Obama, has been below 50% consistently since July 2009 and as I pointed out was sitting at 45% in overall approval during the week of the midterm elections.
He is definitely vulnerable to defeat. Is he certain to be defeated? No. But I would venture he is at the edge of no man’s land currently—bottom line no one knows if Obama will be re-elected or not, not even Obama.
Why polls now? Because they give our side hope and keep us enthusiastic and passionate. How would you feel if Obama was currently polling at 60%? Depressed. Not enthusiastic to vote in the primaries or the general election.
But a close election keeps everyone in the game and brings most everyone out.
As for Santorum, time will tell. But you can’t dismiss the polls on Michigan and Ohio; Feb 28 and March 6 respectively are just around the corner. If Santorum wins both states it is a whole new ball game. He could win the nomination, especially if he makes a severe dent in Gingrich’s southern stronghold on Super Tuesday.
Time will tell.
Straight polling question. What constituency is Satorum/ Romney going to do better than McCain did?
Also minority participation is supposed to be up 28% which is considered to be the low end number. Without getting any additional minority support which I do not see happening I just do not see how the numbers add up.
It would take 65% of the white voters which has not happened since Mondale and that was 34. I am concerned and do not see a way out. Again not talking policy just straight numbers.