Straight polling question. What constituency is Satorum/ Romney going to do better than McCain did?
Also minority participation is supposed to be up 28% which is considered to be the low end number. Without getting any additional minority support which I do not see happening I just do not see how the numbers add up.
It would take 65% of the white voters which has not happened since Mondale and that was 34. I am concerned and do not see a way out. Again not talking policy just straight numbers.
It was calculated after the 2008 election 4m+ white conservative voters did not show up at the polls on election day because they did not take to Mccain being a moderate.
With Santorum those folks would show up.
Bottom line our side needs for the white turnout to be in the range of 75.5%-76% of the electorate to win back the WH. With McCain it was 74%.
And we need to win the white vote by more than 20 points.
McCain only won it by 12 points (55% to 43%).
You say that cannot be done. How soon you forget:
2010:
White vote as percentage of the electorate: 77%
Breakdown of vote:
GOP 60%
Dems 37%
Remember that was a wipeout. It can be done again but it takes a conservative to fire up the base.
Romney can’t do it but Santorum can and so can Palin.
Obviously we know Palin can do it from 2008-2010.
As for Santorum when you command the support of 40%-50% of TP supporters, over 40% of your supporters are evangelicals and over 40% are conservatives you must be doing something right. Obviously if these folks don’t show up in Michigan and/or Ohio then Santorum is not as well regarded as I thought. We’ll see on Feb 28 and March 6.