I’ve never quite understood people’s obsession with the day to day polls. Especially with the polls on Obama, since none of those polls are going to really matter until this ugly nomination process is settled and our energies are focused on Obummer.
As for Saint Rick, his economic platform is mediocre, at best, which is why he runs on family/religious issues and feel good messages about freedom and taking things back and blah blah blah. Repetitious messages aimed at distracting the type of folks who don’t ever look too deeply at anything.
Why polls so far out:
History tells us since Gallup started polling presidential contest after WWII, pundits have concluded that if the incumbent is not consistently over 50% in overall approval a year out from the election that he is vulnerable to defeat.
Furthermore it has been found that no incumbent has ever won re-election if his overall approval number going into the fall election was under 47%. By the same token any incumbent going into the fall campaign at above 51% has been re-elected. You could call the gap in between (47%-51%) no man’s land, where the election could go either way.
President Obama, has been below 50% consistently since July 2009 and as I pointed out was sitting at 45% in overall approval during the week of the midterm elections.
He is definitely vulnerable to defeat. Is he certain to be defeated? No. But I would venture he is at the edge of no man’s land currently—bottom line no one knows if Obama will be re-elected or not, not even Obama.
Why polls now? Because they give our side hope and keep us enthusiastic and passionate. How would you feel if Obama was currently polling at 60%? Depressed. Not enthusiastic to vote in the primaries or the general election.
But a close election keeps everyone in the game and brings most everyone out.
As for Santorum, time will tell. But you can’t dismiss the polls on Michigan and Ohio; Feb 28 and March 6 respectively are just around the corner. If Santorum wins both states it is a whole new ball game. He could win the nomination, especially if he makes a severe dent in Gingrich’s southern stronghold on Super Tuesday.
Time will tell.
“As for Saint Rick, his economic platform is mediocre, at best, which is why he runs on family/religious issues and feel good messages about freedom and taking things back and blah blah blah. Repetitious messages aimed at distracting the type of folks who don’t ever look too deeply at anything.”
Oh and also repealing Obamacare, something that Romney and Newt can’t effectively make the case for because of their support for Romneycare.