Posted on 02/12/2012 6:28:12 PM PST by techno
Here are the results of three recent polls of the GOP presidential contenders:
-------------PPP (2/9-10)--FOX NEWS(2/8-9)---GDTP*(TODAY)
SANTORUM-------38------------30-------------27
ROMNEY---------25------------30-------------34
GINGRICH-------17------------16-------------16
PAUL-----------13------------15-------------8
* 5 DAY GALLUP DAILY TRACKING POLL
On January 26, 2012 except for a spike in his "horse race" numbers two weeks before Christmas to 37% of the GOP primary vote nationally with the Gallup daily tracking poll, Newt Gingrich hit his high-water mark of 32% after winning the South Carolina primary on January 21. That was to be expected. But what was NOT expected is that the former Speaker of the House would then proceed to drop from 32% to 16% in the horse race, all in a matter of the last 17 days.
Meanwhile on Jan. 26 Rick Santorum sat at 13% in the horse race and now has doubled his support to 27%.
On Jan. 26 Mitt Romney was sitting at 26% and now stands at 34%.
On Jan. 26 Ron Paul found himself at 13% and today sits at 9%.
Conclusion:
I have no doubt in my mind if these poll numbers stand this way going forward, you would have witnessed perhaps one of the colossal political blunders in GOP primary politics or politics in general anywhere.
My conclusion is based on the numbers and events of the recent past. Nothing is made up or exaggerated.
On January 21, 2012 Newt Gingrich won the SC primary. He was sitting in the mid 20's at the time with the GDTP and so was Mitt Romney. They were in a virtual tie.
Mitt Romney had won the NH primary but after losing SC, felt immense political pressure to win Florida, with the understanding that the Sunshine state was a must-win. In retrospect I don't know how true that would have been.
Using a football analogy, if you are behind two touchdowns with 5 minutes left to go in the game what do you do? You go to the air with a sense of urgency or desperation. You unleash everything you have. You don't save anything because you feel there is no tomorrow.
I believe this is how Mitt Romney felt in the week leading up the Florida primary on January 31. So in political terms he also went extensively to the air and flooded the airwaves with a multitude of attack ads attacking Newt Gingrich on a number of issues in a most vicious, mean-spirited manner. It has been referred to by pundits as carpet bombing which is defined as an extensive and systematic bombing intended to devastate a large target.
As it turned out Romney won Florida comfortably by 15 points. What was he worried about? But folks this is what bullies do when they are capable of doing it (vast advantage in money); they beat up on someone who is perceived to be a threat but at a disadvantage to wipe out the competition and to prove to the world they are the king of the hill.
Now folks, this is where it becomes interesting. Like John McCain in 2008, Mitt Romney could have conceivably ridden into the sunset and laid claim to the nomination. Objectively he had no reason to believe Newt Gingrich would recover from such a mortal wound. Every poll showed a dramatic drop-off in support for Newt since the start of the carpet bombing.
Here is the dynamic which I think unfolded after the SC primary. Romney and Gingrich were like two warring crime families who believed if one could knock the other out of the game, the surviving gang would gain complete control of the city and rule with impunity and without any danger of being challenged for supremacy.
Meanwhile there was a third crime family in a neighboring city watching these events closely and wondering aloud, could these two crime families beat each up so badly and inflict permanent damage to each other that it proved a Pyrrhic victory for the victor and a devastating unrecoverable loss for the loser? In that case, this third family could move in suddenly with its resources and begin to take over because the the other two crime families had weakened themselves so badly and left themselves so vulnerable so that neither family had the strength to fight back.
In a nutshell, I believe this is exactly what happened to boost Rick Santorum to the top of the mountain and perhaps destroyed the candidacies of both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in the process. Newt was the victim of carpet bombing. Mitt rolled over him as the Germans rolled over the French in 1940 on their way to Paris using blitzkrieg tactics. Again Newt has lost 50% of his support since the carpet bombing began.
As for Mitt Romney, I believe he has suffered some serious political fallout from adopting these brutal tactics against Gingrich and the fallout is especially most pronounced from conservatives and evangelicals who at CPAC told Mitt don't you dare use these tactics against Rick Santorum. And furthermore these tactics simply reinforced why conservatives and evangelicals have not taken to Romney in the first place.
Mitt probably thought that if he won Florida that he would like McCain be declared by the media as the presumptive winner and that conservatives and evangelicals would gradually filter over to his tent as had been done in the past when the media declared a winner.
And this is where Romney's FATAL FLAW (besides Romneycare) came back to bite him in the rear end. Mitt Romney has had 6 long years to sweet-talk, cajole, rap with, have one-on-one conversations, engage groups in informal discussions, visit churches, speak to conservatives and evangelicals from the stage, break bread with them--whatever you want to call his interaction with conservatives and evangelicals--and it has gone for naught. He has never succeeded n building a bridge to the party base. If Romney had, enough of them in theory might have been able to embrace him as the nominee as they did with McCain four years earlier. Instead the greater majority of these folks still consider Romney as an anathema and I believe after the Florida primary rededicated themselves to stopping Mitt Romney from winning the nomination.
Contrary to popular belief and my occasional comments questioning the intelligence of the base, these folks for the most part are NOT so stupid or clued out that they cannot come to terms with the new political reality. And I believe as the new lay of the land began to emerge, a good number of Gingrich supporters did come to conclusion, although reluctantly, that Romney had indeed succeeded in inflicting a mortal wound to the Gingrich campaign which Newt would have a very difficult time to recover and rebound from.
Now why do I come to that conclusion? Look at the poll numbers. Since Jan. 26 and after Florida primary, Newt Gingrich's national poll numbers have been on a constant downward spiral while Rick Santorum's poll numbers have soared through the roof. Three polls now show Newt sitting at 16% or 17%. After his win in SC, Newt was in the high 20's or low 30's.
Santorum has turned out be that third crime family. In the PPP poll released in the middle of December he was sitting at 4% nationally. As you can see 7 weeks later he is now at 38%. And in essence here is why Romney's decision to carpet bomb Newt may be looked upon by political historians one day as a blunder of monumental proportions. There is no way in hell that Rick Santorum could have moved up the ladder so precipitately if not for Romney's decision to carpet-bomb Newt. Santorum was really an afterthought leaving Florida. There was talk he would drop out of the primaries. Now he has become 'the man'. And the reason he has become 'the man' can be summarized by what poster HitNRun posted at Hot Air a couple of days ago: "Santorum was the fifth choice of conservatives; he certainly wasn't the first."
As they say timing is everything. Santorum was the last conservative standing besides Newt. Conservatives and evangelicals over the last week or two have deserted Newt and gone over to Rick in huge numbers. This is not me offering idle speculation. Look at the numbers.
Now this begs the question what are the prospects that Newt Gingrich can win these folks back from Santorum? Let me offer an analogy. A woman who has often contemplated leaving and divorcing her husband finally reaches a point of no return and divorces him and eventually begins dating again with a man she likes and is comfortable with. Yes, there are cases where women who divorce their husbands come to "see the light" sometime down the road and marry him again but in the great majority of cases, once a woman has moved past the divorce and is comfortable in a new relationship she does not go back--she has burned her bridges and does not look in the rear-view mirror. And I would venture to say for many conservatives, evangelicals, and even Tea Party supporters that is the case for Rick Santorum. They are not about to anytime soon to return to Gingrich's tent. They have moved on and at least in the short term Newt in all likelihood will not be able to win the greater majority of them back. Over the long term, I guess anything is possible.
And finally there is an economic or metaphysical law called THE LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES in which outcomes are NOT what the proponent of a particular action intended, expected or envisioned.
Sarah Palin is definitely one of the most influential people in the Republican party and conservative circles. It was mainly because of her recommendation to vote for Newt in SC that Newt won there and also she deserves a lot of credit for the primary process still continuing and for Romney to be denied his coronation. But it is also because of her actions that Rick Santorum is now where he is in the polls. What Palin did over the last 60 days was to galvanize conservatives, evangelicals and TP supporters to awaken from their pessimism and doldrums and to instead vigorously oppose the nomination of Mitt Romney. They have followed her lead and done that. Mitt Romney is no longer the inevitable candidate. But what they have NOT done is to embrace the man she is championing, Newt Gingrich. Instead Rick Santorum is now the man of the hour.
The law off unintended consequences, my friends.
Most of the state votes electronically.
And no, they just won’t count any write-ins. They will ignore them.
There’s really unfortunately nothing to be done. Virginia’s delegates are winner-take-all if someone gets 50%; that’s true both for at-large and CD district.
It is highly unlikely that Paul will be able to beat Romney in any CD. The only chance is if enough people who want Gingrich or Santorum show up and vote for Ron Paul.
Except in a brokered convention, it is likely that Romney will make a deal with Ron Paul, so giving Paul the delegates won’t help.
I'm for Santorum. I don't care if he's not perfect. I don't care if he voted the wrong way or even how many times he voted the wrong way. I don't care if he thinks women have been pressured out of the home and into the workplace.
I don't care about anything except that he's a good man, a famiy man and a man of faith. The exact opposite of the aberration currently occupying the WH. I'm going to campaign for Santorum, work for Santorum, and pray that he can save this country.
The fact that Mitt is “severely” conservative rells me that he would pick up where Obama left off.
Creating an open door for herself? I don't know, but it would be a convention for the history books if so, with a very energized base.
I think Sarah wants a brokered convention. Her high profile support of Newt might have thrown the nomination his way ending the contest at Super Tuesday.
Now we have Newt with the South, Romney with the Eastern and Coastal States and Santorum with fly over states. This keeps up the convention will be brokered.
Ole “Pointy Boots” as some here in TX call him isn’t all that bad—but I’m not sure he’s up to handling things on a national level.
Yes, Mr. Paul is brilliant in some respects, but like me, he’s heading down the hill...Romney just plain turns me off....
I’m trying real hard to like Newt—
But in the end, I will cast my vote for anyone but obama...
You’re right about that-—as far as I can see, that’s our only hope.
well, except for the fact that Obama does everything by decree. So what good does it do to have majorities in the House and/or Senate? It’s as if we’re down to one branch of government.
he gets away with that BS, in large part, because of our position in the legislature. If we control the house and senate, he’ll be walking on egg shells for the next four years, especially with solyndra and fast and furious hanging over his head.
Gingrich won in SC because of the debate.
Gingrich lost in FL because of the debates.
But who are the "many"? Consider the source. "Many" from our own the Republican Party, having seen how she cleaned up the Alaska Republicans, fear her because she might do the same to them!
My dear Chas... nowhere did I act like I had a scoop or implied secret knowledge about little Ricky.
I just stated my belief that more will come out and there is plenty CONSERVATIVES will not like.
You don’t have to get all upset with me for pointing it out but if it makes you feel better to ignore say the money he took from PA ($40,000) for homeschooling in VA, good for you. Maybe Obama’s not so bad either, huh.
Have yourself a good day.
There’s a lot to what you are saying—and I don’t know what the answer to just about anything is these days, as far as politics are concerned.
Creating an open door for herself? I don’t know, but it would be a convention for the history books if so, with a very energized base.
I hope and pray that this is her strategy. She hinted long ago that this would be a very unconventional election and it seems she may be positioning herself for a brokered convention. By keeping Romney at bay and semi-endorsing the others at key times she is making it more likely that none of the current crew get the needed number of votes. Don’t think she was ever out of this race, at heart.
Join the club, pal! (We meet Tuesdays at the pub and sing Irish rebel songs)
;^)
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