Delegate Math (Best Projections through Super Tuesday)

It’s time to take a closer look at how the race will most likely stand at the conclusion of Super Tuesday. This is just my estimates, based on proportional allocation, however, I default to the experts at http://www.thegreenpapers.com. They are probably the most comprehensive in terms of what is an incredibly confusing process. This is a long analysis, but I wanted to have all the facts and data down. First, here are the projections up through what is known as of Maine:

IOWA (28) Okay, so here’s what we know. 28 delegates. Santorum won, but Romney was virtually tied with him. Most likely, both get a minimum of 7 delegates. Ron Paul was somewhat close, gets out most likely 6 delegates. Newt Gingrich comes out with at least 3, but maybe 4 delegates. It depends on whether Rick Perry picked up 1 or 2 delegates. At the IA convention, the 2 Perry delegates will be free to support whomever. Both will probably go to whoever remains in the race or is performing the strongest. As for IA’s 3 Superdelegates, Kim Lehman pledged her support to Santorum. Steve Scheffler has not made an endorsement, and IA GOP Chair Matt Strawn resigned amid voting issues in IA. AJ Spiker replaced Strawn as IA GOP Chairman and he endorsed Ron Paul. So, after IA, that leaves us with the following count:

NEW HAMPSHIRE (12) Romney dominated one of his back-yard states, so no big surprises here. NH has some rule about having to get 10% of the vote to qualify for delegates, so Santorum and Newt got shut out. Best estimates where that Romney got about 7 delegates, Paul 3, and Huntsman 2, but Huntsman pulled out a few days later. More than likely, Huntsman’s 2 delegates will probably go to Romney, but we’ll leave them in the Uncommitted Del category because they will be free to support whomever. Also, NH Superdelegates John Sununu, Sean Mahoney, and Phylis Woods do not have voting rights at the convention for NH’s violation of RNC rules. So after NH, that leaves us with the following count:

SOUTH CAROLINA (25) This is the state where Newt Gingrich made his move and dominated the vote. Gingrich won all Congressional districts except Charleston and Columbia, which were won by Romney. Like NH, SC was penalized in violation of RNC rules, so Superdelegates Karen Floyd, Glenn McCall, and Cindy Costa do not have voting privileges at the RNC. Delegates are winner-take all by Congressional District. So after SC, that leaves us with the following count:

FLORIDA (50) The big prize so far. Romney won this winner-take-all state. Because Florida violated RNC rules, they were penalized half their delegates, and Superdelegates Chair (Vacant), Paul Senft Jr, and Sharon Day will not have voting rights at the convention. After FL, the delegate counts stands as:

NEVADA (28) Romney was able to take 50% of the vote. All delegates in NV are tied to the caucus/convention, so Superdelegates Sue Lowden, Joseph Brown, and Heidi Smith do not get voting rights. Using % allocation, that gives Romney about 14 delegates, Gingrich 6, Paul 5, and Santorum 3, giving us the following new totals:

MINNESOTA (40) Rick Santorum pulled off a shocking upset here. While this is a 2-step process in getting delegates to the RNC, assuming all candidate’s representation at the state convention remains somewhat constant, Santorum will get about 16 delegates, Paul 10, Romney 6 or 7, and Gingrich 3 or 4. Additionally, Superdelegates here do have a say. Pat Shortridge and Pat Anderson remain uncommitted. Jeff Johnson has endorsed Newt Gingrich. After Minnesota, the delegate count stands as follows:

COLORADO (36) In probably the biggest stunner of the primary season, Rick Santorum scored an upset victory in what was supposed to be a heavily favored Romney state. Using proportional allocation, Santorum has about 13 delegates, Romney 12, and both Gingrich and Paul about 4. In terms of Superdelegates , Ryan Call, Mark Hillman, and Lily Nunez all remain uncommitted. Good thing too beacause former Chair Dick Wadhams was a personal friend of Karl Rove. After CO, the vote counts as follows:

MAINE (24) Romney edged out Ron Paul to take the state caucus. Incredible, when you think about the fact that 5,500 people voted have as many delegates at stake as the 600,000 people that voted in SC. Yeah, that makes sense, but whatever. In terms of Superdelegates, Charlie Webster has not publically endorsed anyone, but Jan Staples and Richard Bennett have both endorsed Romney. This will give Romney about 11 delegates come state convention time. Ron Paul will probably have about 8 delegates. Rick Santorum gets around 3, but could be 4 depending on the results in Washington County next week. Newt Gingrich probably gets at least 1 delegate. So, after Maine’s contest, we have the following numbers:

Additionally, not included in this count, Romney has 16 Superdelegates from states or territories that will vote later. Gingrich has 2 Superdelegates from future contests, and Santorum, Paul have 0. There are currently 94 Undecided or Uncommitted Delegates. Adding the full commitment totals yields the following current results after the Maine Caucuses:

Looking Ahead

Arizona (29) Delegates – This is winner take all. Also, a note of caution to the Gingrich people if Newt wins here. AZ is violating RNC rules with the same WTA format that FL conducted. Should Newt be successful in FL in getting a share of the delegates there, Romney may be able to offset that loss of delegates with an equally proportionate showing in AZ should he end up losing the AZ primary, because in a situation where Gingrich would win, Romney would still most likely take Northern AZ and Flagstaff where the Mormon population is strongest, along with other rural areas, while Gingrich would get a plurality in Maricopa and Sierra Vista, but Romney would still get a decent share of support around 20-25% giving him some delegates. In a proportional setting, if Romney lost, he could still get out of AZ with as many as 13 delegates. If FL’s vote is apportioned where Newt could get 16 delegates (32% of 50), Romney might only suffer a net loss of 3 delegates. Just something to keep in mind for later on down the road. Also, Superdelegates in AZ have no voting rights, all 29 delegates are tied to the primary.

Michigan (30) – This is similar to SC where winner take all by CD and a Bonus for winning the state. Santorum and Gingrich both eye CD1, CD2 with good chances. CD3 (Grand Rapids) was close last time. CD4 is competitive. Romney did okay well in CD5(Bay) . CD6 (SW) was a strong McCain area. The rest of the districts on the East towards Lansing and Detroit were very good for Romney. Still, even if Romney carries MI, with WTA by CD here, either Santorum or Gingrich could pick up at least 6-8 Delegates. Superdelegates do not have voting rights at the convention.

Alaska (27) – Okay, here’s another state where 11,620 voted in 2008, and yet they have more delegates in AK than the 600,000 people who voted in SC? LOL. Romney pretty much cleaned up as the outsider candidate at the Super Tuesday caucuses in 2008, but this time things tend to be different in Sarah Palin’s backyard. Compare this to the 109,000 that voted in the GOP Senate primary where Miller upset Murkowski. Alaska allocates delegates proportionally. Combined, Santorum and Gingrich should easily make up 60-65% of the vote here. It won’t be necessary, per se, for the weaker organization to join the stronger, unless one cares a lot about the margin of victory over Romney. At best, Romney probably gets no more than 25% here, which would be about 6 delegates, with Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul getting the other 18. Additionally, all 3 Alaska Superdelegates (Debby Joslin, Randy Ruedrich, Ralph Seekins) are uncommitted as of today.

Idaho (32) – The race was over in 2008 when Idaho voted, so no idea what Romney’s strength was, but Ron Paul got 24% in a two man race with McCain. Also, Superdelegates do not have voting rights in Idaho. Unlike Alaska, Idaho’s rules will compel Gingrich and Santorum to possibly merge together per caucus rules. Voting is done until a candidate gets 50% of the vote for that county or until two names are left. In other words, if Gingrich or Santorum can get 50% across the state county caucuses as a whole of the statewide total, one of the two will most likely win all 32 delegates. Otherwise, if the statewide leader has <50% total, the delegates will be allocated proportionally. If done correctly, there is NO reason why Romney should win ANY delegates in ID. Just going off the CO numbers, they should be able to hit 50% combined in just about every county. Hopefully, both teams will realize this before it is too late. My guess is Santorum is in better shape here for the time being.

North Dakota (28) – Once again, another state has the same number of delegates at stake as IA where 122,000 people voted, yet only 9,524 voted in 2008. ND rules state this is proportional. Compare this to John Hoeven, who didn’t have anyone running against him in the ND primary and still got 64,000 votes. All 3 North Dakota Superdelegates (Sandy Boehler, Curly Haugland, and Stan Stein) are uncommitted. If turnout is high, Romney shouldn’t get more than 20% of the vote, in fact, it could be far worse for him. Not a requirement here for Santorum and Gingrich to team up, their supporters just have to come out and vote. I have to believe there are far more of them then there are of Romney supporters in ND. The biggest issue is that Hoeven apparentally endorsed Romney back in November. Whether that translates to votes here, I don’t know.

Oklahoma (43) – This state will be worse than SC for Romney. The only place he finished 2nd ahead of Huckabee was in Okie City where he still was 8,000 votes behind McCain. OK is winner take all by CD and statewide. Evangelicals dominate the state, especially in the East, but are all around for the most part. Romney won’t win a single CD here and most likely won’t even campaign here. This is either Santorum or Gingrich. As of right now, the state lines up better for Santorum as a Midwest state. Additionally, all 3 Superdelegates (James Dunn, Carolyn McLarty, and Matt Pinnell) are uncommitted.

Virginia (49) – As good as OK is for Santorum or Gingrich, Romney has the ability to offset it in VA thanks to the most ridiculous rules for gaining access to the ballot, and the unconstitutional manner of disallowing write-in votes. For those waiting for a Gingrich comeback, I will make the prediction that in the Feb 22 debate, Newt will turn his indignation towards the VA primary snuff. I guarantee you he’s already working that in now as we speak. Whether or not it will make a difference, I don’t know. While Paul is certain to get protest votes, it probably won’t be enough to keep Romney from claiming 50% of the vote and all 46 delegates. Meanwhile, Superdelegates Morton Blackwell, Pat Mullins, and Kathy Terry remain uncommitted, which may be the only 3 delegates really up for grabs to Santorum or Gingrich.

Massachusetts (41) – If Romney had not been given the VA gift, he would still have been able to offset OK with MA. He has already won the backing of 2 of the 3 Superdelegates in Bob Maginn and Rob Kaufmann. Only Jody Dow remains uncommitted. Romney won everything in East Mass last time except Boston proper, which was very close. He’ll likely carry all of that again. If Gingrich or Santorum have a chance to win any delegates, it’s going to come from the West. However, Romney lost those counties by just a few hundred votes. In most likelihood, he will probably sweep the state. There isn’t any kind of base for Gingrich or Santorum to target, similar to NH. Even Ron Paul doesn’t have a base to work from here. The requirements are that a candidate must get 15% of the vote to qualify for delegates based on proportional allocation of the statewide vote. Maybe one of them can get there, but it’s hard to see how both get there. If they do, though, it’s 6 delegates. This is a state that Gingrich/Santorum supporters should combine based on how the polls line up, to ensure Romney doesn’t get all the delegates.

Vermont (17) – The race was over by the time VT voted in 2008. Still Romney is heavily favored to win in what can only be described as one of the most liberal Republican states in the country. It’s winner take all by district or winner take all if candidate receives a majority. There’s only 1 CD, so assuming Romney wins VT he’ll have 3 delegates. It then becomes a matter of whether Romney gets to 50% or not. If he does, he wins 11 more. If not, the 11 delegates are allocated proportionately. Like NH, ME, and MA, there’s really no where in VT for Gingrich and Santorum to target. This might be another ideal location for Ron Paul. The good news is that there’s no threshold to meet to get delegates if Romney fails to get >50%. Still, in theory, one has to win about 9% of the state vote to qualify for a delegate. I guess those numbers add up. Also, some conflicting rules between Green Papers and Superdelegate list. The list says they are bound to VT’s results, while the Green Papers say the attend unbound. For the record the 3 Superdelegates are Susie Hudson, Pat McDonald, and George Schiavone.

Georgia (76) – The funny thing about the 2008 primary. Mitt Romney’s strongest area was Atlanta and the surrounding suburbs, which included Gingrich’s old House seat. Something tells me he won’t get that same success again. Romney’s only other areas of strength were running about even in the other cities (Athens, Macon, Savannah, Augusta, and Columbus. Based on how delegates are allocated, there’s an excellent chance for Rick Santorum to pick up delegates. Essentially, GA has 14 CD’s and 3 delegates per CD. If a candidate gets 50% of the vote in that CD, they win all 3 delegates, otherwise it is a 2-1 split between the first place and second place in the district. Santorum could very well finish 2nd in many of these district and gain about 8 or 9 delegates. Additionally, 31 delegates are allocated based on the statewide total, which mandates a 20% threshold. This is bad news for Romney, who in the latest poll on Friday, got 16% of the vote. At most, Romney might get 11 delegates out of GA, or he might not get anything. The GA Superdelegates are also bound to support the statewide winner of the popular vote, which will most likely be Gingrich. Assuming Gingrich won GA with 45% and all of the CD’s under 50%, he would have about 45 delegates. If Rick Santorum can finish second in these 14 CD’s and keep Newt <50% in each of them, and pick up around 30% of the vote, he would get about 23 delegates. In the end, it doesn’t matter the delegate allocation between Gingrich and Santorum, the point is Romney isn’t going to get them. Romney might finish 2nd in some of the city-dominated CD’s and pick up about 3 or 4 delegates that way, but if he falls under 20% in the state, he’ll be shut out from getting any of the 31 delegates at stake. In other words, it’s highly unlikely Romney gets any more than 10 delegates total here, if that.

Tennessee (58) – Let’s start with the easy part. All 3 Superdelegates (Chris Devaney, Peggy Lambert, and John Ryder) are uncommitted. TN sort of has rules like GA, but a little different. 27 Delegates are allocated via CD and you either have to win 2/3 of the CD vote or finish over 50% in the CD with no one else getting over 20% to get all 3 delegates. With both Gingrich and Santorum projected to do well in this conservative state, that appears unlikely. The next rule is that the two highest vote getters with over 20% in the CD get a 2-1 split on delegates. Romney ran strongest in Nashville last time, McCain dominated Knoxville, and Huckabee won Memphis and most of the rural areas. 14 Delegates are allocated proportionally statewide, with a 20% threshold, unless a candidate gets 2/3 of the statewide vote. The other 14 are appointed by Executive committee. It’s these 14 that were made an issue in regards to the Santorum campaign not fielding a full slate of delegates. Except for maybe Nashville, Gingrich and Santorum will be expected to finish 1-2 in most of the Congressional districts. Assuming Romney gets 25% of the vote, and maybe a 2nd place in two of the Congressional districts, he can probably get 6 delegates. A strong 2nd for Santorum or Gingrich with 30% of the vote would yield about 11 delegates. Winning with 40% of the vote would yield 24 delegates. The Executive Committee and Superdelegates would then be added in. Most likely, these will go to either Gingrich or Santorum. Ron Paul appears shut out in here and in GA based on the 20% threshold.

Ohio (66) – Once again start with the easy stuff. All 3 Superdelegates are Uncommitted (Robert Bennett, Jo Ann Davidson, Kevin DeWine). 48 Delegates (3per CD) are allocated based on the winner of the CD without regard to the winning percentage, the winner gets all 3. The remaining 15 delegates are allocated proportionally based on the statewide total unless someone wins the state with more than 50% of the vote, which is unlikely with both Santorum and Gingrich in the race. Like TN and GA, to receive a portion of the 15 delegates requires a 20% threshold statewide total. OH is the big prize of Super Tuesday. Last time the race was over by the time it was held. But because there is no 50% requirement in each of the CD’s, a close race will make the delegate allocation close. Santorum’s strength is going to be in the rust belt in the South and Southeast and PA border counties, Romney will be around the cities, Gingrich will be out west. Without going CD by CD, it’s quite possible all 3 get out with 20 delegates each, based on current polling. We will have to see.

Washington (43) – The state set-up seems similar to MN and CO’s non-binding caucuses. This is a classic battle of East v West. Eastern Washington (Spokane) is heavily conservative, especially with Catholic and Evangelical support. Huckabee nearly had enough support to win the caucus, but McCain won just enough in the West in Seattle/Tacoma to offset it. Ron Paul also got a decent amount of support here with 22%. Given how the vote went in CO and MN, I’d have to give the edge to Santorum, but the delegate allocation (which is non-binding) may be close with Romney winning in Seattle and Tacoma. Superdelegates Jeff Kent, Fredi Simpson, and Kirby Wilbur are all uncommitted.

So the bottom line, what are we looking at as of the conclusion of Super Tuesday.

Based on the above information, in the “best” case scenario for Romney, he wins the AZ Primary (29), wins Michigan (21), Virginia (46), Vermont with 50%(17), Massachusetts (34), and wins delegates in AK(6), ND(5), GA(11), TN(6), OH(22), WA (15).

Add this to Romney previous total as of Maine and at the end of Super Tuesday, he’ll have around 345 Delegates (2 Supers in Mass were already accounted for).

I’ll combine Gingrich/Santorum totals because by the time we get to Super Tuesday, they might flip again. Between the two, they should be able to pick up delegates in MI(6), MA(6), AK(18), ID(32), ND(16), OK(43), GA(65), TN(49), OH(41), WA (19).

Add this to Gingrich/Santorum’s previous total as of Maine and at the end of Super Tuesday, they should have a combined 382 Delegates between the two.

Meanwhile, looks like a tough month for Ron Paul. He’ll get maybe 6 delegates in WA, maybe 4 delegates in ND. The threshold and CD allocation really hurt him, along with ID’s caucus rules. He’ll be at 47 Delegates total at the end of Super Tuesday.

And hence, we see the dynamic start to form. Romney/Paul will be projected to have 392 delegates to Gingrich/Santorum’s 382 at the end of Super Tuesday. This is important because like I mentioned before, if Romney has to get Rand onto the ticket to secure the nomination and Ron Paul’s delegates' support at a brokered convention, he most certainly will do so.

Super Tuesday Final Projected Totals –

Romney – 345 Delegates

Santorum/Gingrich – 382 Delegates

Paul – 47 Delegates

Uncommitted Primary/Caucus Delegates (4 – 2 for Perry and 2 for Huntsman)

Uncommitted Superdelegates: 94

Remaining Primary/Caucus Delegates: (1,415)

Sorry for the long post, but didn't want to leave any analysis out. Same info is in the Google Docs link.

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