Posted on 02/06/2012 8:07:32 AM PST by libertarian neocon
A couple of polls came out from Public Policy Polling this weekend showing that Santorum seems to be replacing Newt Gingrich as the main "not Romney" candidate in Minnesota and Colorado. There seems to be a desire to "give another conservative a chance" as well as to potentially field a candidate without as much baggage as Newt so that Mitt Romney's negative ad carpet bombing will not be as effective.
I think though that this reasoning is fallacious and switching support from Newt to Santorum at this point would be a major mistake. Let's just look at what I believe are the two main arguments for the switch:
1) "Give another conservative a chance". Didn't Rick already have a chance after his victory in Iowa? He had a ton of positive press coverage even when it appeared that he had narrowly lost (by 8 votes) in Iowa and he could have really taken advantage of it. But he didn't. He is just not as competent with voters or with the media as he should be. He followed up his surprising Iowa finish with a 4th place finish in New Hampshire, a 3rd place finish in South Carolina, a 3rd place finish in Florida and now a 4th place finish in Nevada. In none of these contests was he able to break through 17% of the vote (he got that in evangelical heavy South Carolina) and in two contests (New Hampshire and Nevada) he wasn't even able to break through 10%. And it isn't like Newt has the establishment media on his side keeping Rick down, if anything it is the opposite. After 25 debates and a victory in Iowa, Rick Santorum really has no excuse for not catching on, other than himself.
2) "We need a candidate with less baggage than Newt". Right now, because Rick Santorum has generally escaped much criticism in the media it appears that he would be a much safer candidate than Newt, one who could survive the carpet bombing of negative ads that will inevitably come from Romney once Rick is viewed as a threat to them. But this is an illusion as I don't think any candidate with any actual record could escape unscathed from Romney's attacks. Ad markets have been deluged with so many negative ads by the Romney team that their tactics practically meet the threshold to be considered brainwashing. Just think about what Newt has actually been attacked for. He has been attacked for an ethics charge related to the tax exempt status of a college course he taught (oooh, run for the hills!), something even the IRS decided did not hold water. He has been attacked for, as a private citizen, consulting for a politically unattractive client, Freddie Mac (If it was Iran, I would understand, but a publicly traded company that even Romney was invested in? Come on.). He has also been attacked for sitting on a couch for a commercial with a liberal democrat and actually promoting green energy (the horror)! All of these issues have been completely blown out of proportion by the Romney machine and the media and have nothing to do with Newt's very conservative record while in office.
I'm sure some people would argue that if they had anything on Rick Santorum, that they would have used it already. Not really. The Romney machine and its allies in the media establishment only attack when they see a threat to their candidate. I seem to remember a time when the very same people who are vilifying Newt today were cheering him on for his witty answers in various debates. The difference at the time was that they were trying to take down Rick Perry and Herman Cain and thought Newt had no chance. Just wait until they set their sights on Rick Santorum. There will be wall to wall ads about his involvement in the K Street Project, his endorsement of Arlen Specter (who became a Democrat and helped usher in Obamacare), his "leadership PAC" (which gave a paltry 18% of its money to candidates and spent the rest on everyday expenses for Rick Santorum), his scam of a charity and his numerous "gaffes" which will help sour his appeal among women and independent voters (he blamed the church's child molestation scandal on Boston being liberal, he equated homosexuality with bestiality and he said radical feminism is to blame for the decline of the American family). Then of course is his record which is more liberal than Newt's. He voted against NAFTA, against Right to Work and for steel tariffs, as well as various earmarks (especially in election years). If you don't think the Romney attack dogs won't find enough fodder in Rick Santorum's record to vilify him to the same extent that Newt has been vilified, think again. Remember, there was a time that even Newt had the highest positive intensity score in the entire field. Things change. In a few months, after the establishment is done with him, Rick Santorum's image as a straight shooting conservative family man will turn into one of a corrupt religious zealot who is only interested in his own advancement.
One final point. I know that conservatives seemed to have become addicted to switching horses in this primary race, going from Bachmann to Perry to Cain to Gingrich to Santorum and then back to Gingrich, but at some point, it just becomes too late. Due to his string of lackluster finishes, Rick Santorum continues to have a pretty decrepit organization which just recently couldn't even find enough signatures to get on the ballot in Indiana. Newt was attacked for not having an organization, so how does it make sense to go to a candidate who probably has an even worse one, especially with Super Tuesday coming up? Newt has his weaknesses, but like it or not, he is the best we have right now. He is a Reagan conservative who has a great ability to excite the base and explain to everyone else why we believe what we believe. We need to coalesce around him and defeat both Romney AND Obama and make America great again.
Blah, blah, blah...!
PPP Poll: Santorum Leads Romney in Minnesota
The Republican caucuses in Minnesota on Tuesday are a virtual tossup, with front-runner Mitt Romney trailing former Sen. Rick Santorum by a small margin, a poll showed Sunday. Romney, who strengthened his lead for the White House race with a solid win Saturday in the Nevada caucuses, faces a tougher challenge in the Midwestern state, based on the survey from Public Policy Polling. Full Story
Read more
http://www.newsmax.com/
Gingrich will never be president. Even in the highly unlikely event Gingrich beats Romney, He will still never be president as the swing voters desert him and even a lot of republicans sit on their hands.
Santorum will probably not defeat Romney, but in the unlikely event he beats Romney, at least the tea party and republican establishment will both work for him and the independents will come over too.
Besides, every non Romney has had their chance at the top of the polls and they have all blown it. Why not give the last non Romney a shot it too. Gingrich is not only a history professor, but he is also history as a presidential contender too. Stick a fork in him, he is done.
We are getting played again. Down now to the serious one among the candidates, Newt Gingrich, we are being asked to abandon him for the Rat Terrier, whose reason for running at all is that he is out of job. Santorum has served on a few boards but is as cutting edge as an inflated balloon on anything that matters.
Pro-Santorum Super PAC Ad Pits Santorum vs. Obama
http://lisagraas.com/blog/2012/02/01/pro-santorum-super-pac-ad-pits-santorum-vs-obama/
Nancy Pelosi write your post?
When the hell did Santorum discover someone named Barack Obama? He’s been so childishly obsessed with Newt that I am surprised he even knew the name Obama. Did someone google it for him?
“Gingrich will never be president. Even in the highly unlikely event Gingrich beats Romney, He will still never be president as the swing voters desert him and even a lot of republicans sit on their hands.
Santorum will probably not defeat Romney, but in the unlikely event he beats Romney, at least the tea party and republican establishment will both work for him and the independents will come over too.”
Newt seems to have more tea party support than Santorum so I dont see why he would be a better uniter than Newt? Also, the establishment will get behind any GOP candidate as they want positions in the new administration so they are really not at risk.
As I wrote in the piece, Santorum has had his chance after winning Iowa. He didnt do anything with it, finishing no better than 3rd or 4th
Rick’s “obsession” with Newt amounts to “No, I won’t drop out and direct my supporters to you.”
A more serious analysis than this article deserves.
All the democrat fascists and Vichy Republicans I know say that same thing.Probably because they're scared to death of what would happen to their little arrangement if Newt did become President. After all, Newt knows who back stabbed him, knows where the democrat bodies are buried, and more importantly, knows exactly what programs and goodies to get rid of in order to take all the toys away from the fascists and RINOs in about one budget he gets passed.
That would make the poor little democrat fascists and Vichy Republicans very sad. So, they whistle past the graveyard they thought they buried Newt in and hope his running for the Republican nomination is just a bad dream they can handle with sufficient quantities of smoke blown up one anther's, um, exhaust.
NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE www.nationalreview.com
Again, Why Not Santorum?
By Quin Hillyer
February 6, 2012 4:00 A.M.
Missouri’s “beauty contest” primary on Tuesday could be Rick Santorum’s big chance. If he defeats Mitt Romney in that event, as at least one poll shows he is poised to do, the punditocracy and public alike might finally recognize the considerable upside he would offer Republicans as their presidential nominee.
Rick Santorum can win the Republican nomination. Rick Santorum can indeed beat Barack Obama in the fall. And Rick Santorum can and would govern at least as conservatively as Ronald Reagan did.
http://www.nationalreview.com/blogs/print/290132
I’m not real sure I agree with your Gingrich assessment but I do agree with the Santorum analysis.
We shall see.
Sanitorium’s support in Minn would not increase measurably, no matter who might drop out of the election. Those that will support him are those that already do.
staytrue is Nancy!
The only reason Santorum is still on the radar is because he hasn’t yet been slimed by the Romney/GOP establishment machine. He has no real national traction and has not got a chance to carry the deep south. Newt does.
>> “Again, Why Not Santorum?” <<
.
Because he is an establishment, high tax, big government guy. (with a huge mean streak)
That’s a pathetically out of touch comment. His obsession with Newt is shown in his debate ugly sneers and with the huge amount of this campaign cash that is funneled into anti Newt ads.
If you’re gonna bring it, know your stuff first............
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