Posted on 01/31/2012 7:43:35 PM PST by rbmillerjr
The Clear Conservative Path To GOP Nomination
(Graphic Here)
Romney had a big victory in Florida, but it wasn't as big as Fox News and the Establishment want to persuade conservatives:
1. Florida Delegates were only 50 versus 100, due to Florida violating Primary rules.
2. Ron Paul didn't campaign in Florida
3. Santorum had personal affairs to tend to and campaigned little in Florida and went to Nevada.
The Path (Click Here)
These factors lead to a bigger percentage win for Romney, which the GOP Establishment will play up as a huge victory. It's not a huge victory, it's a big victory.
There are also two Critical Factors that will neutralize Romney's new momentum.
1. The majority of future states are proportional states, meaning he will split most states with Gingrich, Santorum and Paul.
2. The combined conservative vote of Gingrich and Santorum; and economic conservative/libertarian vote of Ron Paul is much more than Romney's ability to rack up large percentage wins.
At present levels of Delegates plus factoring in the present levels of support (Gingrich winning in both Missouri and Ohio and Santorum and Paul maintaining levels of support around 15%) this Primary is going to the Convention.
It is not possible under current support assumptions for Romney to get the 50% of all the Delegates he needs to win under the Republican Primary rules. It is possible for Gingrich, Santorum and Paul to agree to prevent the Liberal Romney from winning.
A Conservative Deal is not that far fetched. Why would Gingrich, Santorum or Paul sway their Delegates to RINO Romney. We could have a conservative President, Vice President, and high level Cabinet position for the third place candidate.
It's not grandiose, it's very practical. The top Delegate finisher is President and 2nd place finisher is Vice President of the United States.
The pitfalls are twofold: 1) Fox and GOP-E persuade conservatives that it is over and voters stay away, giving 2) One of the three bolts to Romney. There is no valid reason for any of the three to bolt to Romney if the are Principled conservatives.
This arrangement, The Conservative Deal would embolden a new Conservative Alliance that hasn't been seen since Reagan managed to bring in Economic, Social, and National Security conservatives. This Alliance could bring all three plus bring in the young economic libertarians as part of a lasting Coalition.
This arrangement would be a nail into the coffin of Obama and a stake to the heart of the RINO Establishment of the GOP.
A Conservative Path that is reasonable and logical.
The numbers add up and favor the conservative candidates.
This Path isn't our only path, but it is the most likely path.
Do not let the Fox and GOP-E's break your political will. This can be done and it will refresh conservatism with a new political conservative coaltion.
I understand many tea party peeps were registered INDEPENDENTS in FLA and could NOT vote in the primary.
I believe that to be the case bigredd.
Let’s face it, it’s an uphill climb for anybody to take out Romney individually, because honestly, if somebody else like Santorum would break out....
The GOP-E would just take him out with the hit jobs. Gingrich deserves a lot of credit for hanging as tough as he is under massive Establishment assault.
The best way to win this nomination is for the three to work together in the end.
At the moment Romney is standing there with only half the delegates FL would usually have, and he got less than half the votes. That is FAILURE TO THRIVE Fur Shur.
This path to “blocking Romney” might work great for 2016; if we still have an America to call our own.
3. Santorum had personal affairs to tend to and campaigned little in Florida and went to Nevada.
How did this help Romney?
Is the author suggesting that Santorum and Paul supporters went to Romney, not Gingrich?
And anyone in VA, vote Ron Paul! Keep Romney from getting those delegates.
I wouldn’t have believed it myself, but polling indicates that Romney would benefit from from at least, Santorum not being in the race.
But my point is that the average joe voter, didn’t see Santorum nor Paul campaign in Florida.
There is a lemming effect, where, in conjunction with massive negative hits on Gingrich, it could favor Romney getting a higher percentage than normal.
We will see what the percentages end up at, but they appear as a mini breakout for Romney.
“And anyone in VA, vote Ron Paul! Keep Romney from getting those delegates.”
Great point Kenny.
I’m doing a more extensive article on this in the coming days, with more data....but that will be part of it. We need Paul to get the conservative vote in Virginia.
“...for Ole Virginya...”
Willie Mitty beat Newt by 14%
Newt beat Willie Mitty in SC by 12%
not that much difference...
Plus Willie Mitty is spending like Michelle Obama...
Someone in the media is going to notice that ...
I agree with your reasoning. Romney outspent Newt 3 to 1 in FL with Paul and Santorum not really participating. The fact that Mittens couldn’t break 50% says a lot about his inevitability as a nominee after this contest. This is far from over.
Great idea. Another four years of Barack.
Those numbers are pretty big....but not as big as the early reports indicated.
But the media and faux conservative pundity...ie rove, beck, coulter, nearly all of fox, all the poser RINO magazines will all try to build more momentum for Romney than he deserves.
They think they are entitled to have principled conservatives give up and rally around the Liberal Romney.
No way, now how, never...this is the same fight we had to win when Reagan was running within the GOP.
JB...your post makes no sense...
Please explain your rationale.
Spending? What’s your point. I believe that pretty much every republican and democrat in the last century won because of spending. Otherwise, I would be winning the nomination. (me poor)
A big part of winning a nomination and the general election, is a strong organization, and........... yes....... money. Having those give you the ability to win. Doesn’t matter who you are, or what message. If you don’t have a strong organization and money, you will never win an election. Newt’s failure to have a strong organization and the money he needs, is why he is loosing. That is how things work. Nothing sinister about it.
And to another posters points, the Santorum vote would go 50/50 to mitt and newt based on recent polling. In fact, him getting out would help mitt more. I know its not what some of us want to hear, but it;s time for some reality here on FR.
I wish they would. We could easily, EASILY pull this off if they did. And it would be better for America.
The problem is ...Santorum’s enormous Ego. And whatever the Romney folks are paying him off with ... sad to say.
The Clear Conservative Path To GOP Nomination
Repost...
(ENTIRE ARTICLE FOLLOWS LESS GRAPHICS)
Romney had a big victory in Florida, but it wasn’t as big as Fox News and the Establishment want to persuade conservatives:
1. Florida Delegates were only 50 versus 100, due to Florida violating Primary rules.
2. Ron Paul didn’t campaign in Florida
3. Santorum had personal affairs to tend to and campaigned little in Florida and went to Nevada.
The Path (Click Here)
These factors lead to a bigger percentage win for Romney, which the GOP Establishment will play up as a huge victory. It’s not a huge victory, it’s a big victory.
There are also two Critical Factors that will neutralize Romney’s new momentum.
1. The majority of future states are proportional states, meaning he will split most states with Gingrich, Santorum and Paul.
2. The combined conservative vote of Gingrich and Santorum; and economic conservative/libertarian vote of Ron Paul is much more than Romney’s ability to rack up large percentage wins.
At present levels of Delegates plus factoring in the present levels of support (Gingrich winning in both Missouri and Ohio and Santorum and Paul maintaining levels of support around 15%) this Primary is going to the Convention.
It is not possible under current support assumptions for Romney to get the 50% of all the Delegates he needs to win under the Republican Primary rules. It is possible for Gingrich, Santorum and Paul to agree to prevent the Liberal Romney from winning.
A Conservative Deal is not that far fetched. Why would Gingrich, Santorum or Paul sway their Delegates to RINO Romney. We could have a conservative President, Vice President, and high level Cabinet position for the third place candidate.
It’s not grandiose, it’s very practical. The top Delegate finisher is President and 2nd place finisher is Vice President of the United States.
The pitfalls are twofold: 1) Fox and GOP-E persuade conservatives that it is over and voters stay away, giving 2) One of the three bolts to Romney. There is no valid reason for any of the three to bolt to Romney if the are Principled conservatives.
This arrangement, The Conservative Deal would embolden a new Conservative Alliance that hasn’t been seen since Reagan managed to bring in Economic, Social, and National Security conservatives. This Alliance could bring all three plus bring in the young economic libertarians as part of a lasting Coalition.
This arrangement would be a nail into the coffin of Obama and a stake to the heart of the RINO Establishment of the GOP.
If you don’t have a strong organization and money, you will never win an election. Newt’s failure to have a strong organization and the money he needs, is why he is loosing. That is how things work. Nothing sinister about it.
**
No, I’m sorry. Having the kind of money Romney has, from the beginning ....is sinister. Whose money is that? You don’t get THAT kind of money from individual regular everyday American voters. You get it from his personal wealth, and/or his extremely rich corporate and investor type donors.
Romney is literally buying this election. I don’t WANT to live in a country where the elections can be purchased ...that ensures only a very elite few will ever rule here. The rest of us will remain serfs in their kingdom.
“...could Easily pull this off....The problem is ...Santorum’s enormous Ego. And whatever the Romney folks are paying him off with ... sad to say.
Two things:
1. There is no reason to bolt for VP with Romney
If he finishes in 2nd place, he’d be the VP in this scenario
2. If he bolts for Romney, his credibility as a conservative is ruined forever...he could never be President.
Well your Willie Mitty better start getting lots of moola out of his magic draws cause Obama has $1 BILLION to spend
and hes not having to spend much now
Mittens has 46 more states to go...
Obama has zippo..
but hes raking in lots more
at $5 MILLION in ONE DAY Obama can easily have up to another BILLION by Nov...
Since your Willie Mitty choser to squander $25 MILLION plus for 70,000,000 just for ONE STATE whats he going to do to win 46 more ???
OK even 30-40 more ???
Has he got $$1 BILLION to pay for all the ads and palms he has to grease ???
Remember Florida with all its MASS snowbirds was a cake walk compared to the Christian Conservative states he now has to face...
and then after Tampa...
Just how much of his own ill gotten gains is he willing to spend to buy the White Horse errr the hite House ???
He spent $45 MILLION of his own last time...
Hes already spent about that much anfd we havent got to Supper Tuesday yet...
Watching your Willie Mitty playing presidential candidate is like watching a drunk playing the tables in Las Vegas...
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