Did The GOP Estabishment Just Blink?

TalkingSides.com ^ | 01/23/12 | CaroleL

[CaroleL]

In case there was any doubt, the results of Saturday's South Carolina primary proved there's a proxy war going on in the Republican Party. While casual observers may see a battle between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, the real fight is between a party establishment that believes only a moderate can win in November and conservatives who want to block a moderate from winning the nomination.

After the first three official contests, three different candidates have scored a victory and the fourth showed well enough to stay in the fight. Far from the coronation many anticipated, the GOP primary process is turning into a battle of wills for the party's soul and the possibility of a brokered convention is becoming more real every day. After Saturday night's results were announced, former Republican National Chairman Michael Steele said the chances of the race going all the way to Tampa without a clear winner are now "50/50."

But in this standoff between the establishment and the conservatives, the establishment may have just blinked. It's highly doubtful that after a decades-long relationship with Mr. Gingrich, party leaders past and present will suddenly embrace the volatile and ethically challenged former speaker. But it is possible that after recent debate stumbles by Governor Romney, his poor showing in South Carolina and his dropping poll numbers in Florida; they may offer a new candidate behind which the party could unite.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

Good article.

Seems to get it.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

Forget Mitch Daniels. He’s pushing a smoking ban in Indiana.

[itsahoot]

Seems to get it.

Daniels?

What you smoking man?

[Just mythoughts]

But in this standoff between the establishment and the conservatives, the establishment may have just blinked. It's highly doubtful that after a decades-long relationship with Mr. Gingrich, party leaders past and present will suddenly embrace the volatile and ethically challenged former speaker.

volatile and ethically challenged former speaker

Yeah, the 'establishment' Republicans resent like no tomorrow when Newt lead the charge to retake the House from liberals after 40 years of wandering in the wilderness. Then Newt had the brazen nerve to want to teach a history class and both sides of the establishment came unglued... Were all 'warts' put on display by all players involved, I doubt Newt would be the one called ethically challenged.

[greeneyes]

Nope. Sorry. I want to hear the candidate relate this stuff back to the founding documents. I want someone with a fire in his belly. I want a warrior.

Mitch had his chance and he took a pass. That makes him a chicken and no fire. I’ll stick with the horse that got me here against all odds.

[Ronin]

WHO?

Mitch Daniels? OK, I have heard of him, and he might even be a nice guy, but PLEASE...

Another double-breasted suit with a nice smile and a good haircut is not going to cut it. Especially if he is what RINO wives would call “nice”.

Or heck, I dunno... maybe he’s really just an undiscovered firebrand that will rock my socks off. Riggght... and if he was like that, I would have heard of MORE about him before, right?

Why is it so hard for these people to understand, Conservatives want a fighter. We want someone who is going to get bloody knuckles. We do not want another waspy tea-n-crumpets small “c” conservative with excellent financial credentials and perfect dentalwork.

Swapping Daniels for Romney wouldn’t gain them a thing at this point, and Daniels would be well advised not to try it.

[nathanbedford]

As plucky as it was, former Sen. Santorum's victory in Iowa was not a personal victory in the sense that it was an endorsement. It was partially a repudiation of Mitt Romney in that it was a not-Romney vote and in retrospect it can be reasonably seen as a partial endorsement of Newt Gingrich by proxy.

In other words, Gingrich was ahead in the polls until Romney's negative ad blitz was unleashed against him crashing his ratings and ruining his chances in Iowa so the anti-Romney vote which had been a Gingrich vote turned to Santorum as a placeholder but not as an expression of personal enthusiasm for Santorum himself. Gingrich had left the negative ads unanswered and voters naturally turned away from him as from a vacuum-because the laws of physics are applied in reverse to politics. Nature abhors a vacuum and fills it but politics flees a vacuum and Gingrich's passivity had created a vacuum.

Gingrich could not find his footing in New Hampshire but he had a plan which he followed successfully in South Carolina. Let there be no dispute, Gingrich won a personal victory in South Carolina. His victory was not an anti-Romney vote, it was an affirmative vote for Gingrich himself. It was the vote he would have gotten in Iowa but for Romney's negative ad campaign. By the time the vote occurred in South Carolina, the negativity had lost its power, the move was not as it was in Iowa against Romney but for Newt.

Now the game moves to Florida and the test will be whether the combined efforts of Romney's money, the regular Republican establishment, and the national media can replay Iowa or whether Newt can replay South Carolina.

My bet is that Gingrich can and will so dominate the stage that he will emerge from Florida not only the winner but inoculated against most of the charges which Obama will float against him.

[Truthsearcher]

No thanks, I want no part of Mitch “by truce I mean surrender” Daniels.

[rhinohunter]

Isn’t Daniels the guy that said we need to “get over Reagan”?

[RC one]

It looks like Newt’s momentum has carried him into Florida according to the most recent Insider Advantage poll. He will have to play an excellent game for the next week or so to keep that head of steam up. SC was great but Florida could be decisive for Newt. I don’t see how Santorum can ultimately survive a poor showing in Florida and the aforementioned insider advantage poll has him dead last.

[RightOnline]

What a superb analysis and well-written post. Kudos.

[BubbaJunebug]

Boring guy...........and

Daniels has been honored by the Arab-American Institute with the 2011 Najeeb Halaby Award for Public Service...probably since his grandparents were Syian

[broken_arrow1]

Members of the Democratic state House caucus in Indiana have found an unlikely ally in their quest to stop the GOP majority from pushing through a bill that critics say would destroy union organizing in the state. Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) took to the airwaves today to call on members of his party to drop the controversial “right to work” bill that led to Democrats going AWOL.

Daniels’ statement (Feb 22, 2011), from WISH-TV:

“I’m not sending the state police after anybody. I’m not gonna divert a single trooper from their job of protection the Indiana public. I trust that people’s consciences will bring them back to work. …

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/02/mitch-daniels-calls-on-state-gop-to-abandon-union-busting-bill.php

[nikos1121]

Perry was talked into jumping in, and look what happened. He went up against two candidates who were already seasoned in debates...and a third...Newt who has been preparing for this moment for the past 23 years.

You might get someone to come in and be fairly good on this subject or that subject, but how do you compete with Newt on ALL subjects.

PLUS, I’ve noticed something very profound about Newt. He knows what questions can help him and which will not. He avoids the latter. Usually those that ask that he argue with another candidate.

I hope that he stays on issues and does not fall for the trap of letting Romney get to him.

[ari-freedom]

“Forget Mitch Daniels. He’s pushing a smoking ban in Indiana.”

Not only that but he seems to come from the Richard Lugar school of foreign policy.

[ari-freedom]

“Perry was talked into jumping in, and look what happened. He went up against two candidates who were already seasoned in debates...and a third...Newt who has been preparing for this moment for the past 23 years.”

Romney was probably prepared for Perry (Perry published a book Fed Up! about a year ago) and thought he could take him out. But Newt? Oh yeah, that guy whose campaign staff all quit on him? Yeah, he’s good for the excitement during debates along with Gary Johnson, the guy who was known for his dog’s shovel ready projects. Even Cain thought Newt would be HIS VP instead of the other way around.

Now look who is laughing.

btw Newt wrote the Foreword to Perry’s Fed Up! He didn’t endorse Newt the other day on a whim.

[fortheDeclaration]

The establishment is looking for a way to steal our victory.

Newt is going to be the nominee.

[trebb]

What’s your target audience? Do you work for the establishment GOP?

[tgusa]

The biggest thing that Newt has going for him is that his personal life is an open book, and he can laugh off the worst mud that can be flung at him. Newt CAN AND WILL beat The Massiah like a drum. I cannot wait for that first debate, when Newt allows Zero to use TOTUS.