Posted on 11/23/2011 3:58:59 PM PST by newheart
Early in the campaign I pretty much wrote Gingrich off. But I am giving him a very long second look and to my own surprise it is due in large part to electability. That may seem odd to the "I like Newt, but he has too much baggage to win," crowd (even more odd to the "I can never forgive him for sitting on a couch with Queen Nancy," crowd), so here is my reasoning:
Why was Barack Obama elected in 2008? Yes, it was partly pent-up white guilt as the electorate attempted to assuage their collective conscience for all the wrongs done to dark-skinned people ever since God created the mark of Cain. (That would be Abel's brother, not Herman, and no I don't believe the mark is dark skin. As Herman put it so well, America needs to get a sense of humor.) And BHO, a cipher with no known history or experience seemed like as good a vessel to attach that supposed guilt to as any. Like Peter Sellers character in Being There, or Forrest Gump, he was just a person of the right color (not too dark, not too light) who showed up at the right time.
But it was more than white guilt. Maybe it was Harry Reid's pronouncement that Obama was clean, articulate, light-skinned and sans-ebonic, which provided enough cover for any old school Dixiecrat to deflect the racism that is inherent in their party. Oh wait, that was Janeane Garofalo, the Democrats and this time it really was about Herman Cain. But I digress.
Maybe it was the fact that the press continually waxed poetic about Obama being so damn smart, after all, he defeated the smartest woman in the world for the nomination. After eight years of hearing the repeated mantra that "Somewhere in Texas there is a village missing its idiot," the electorate was convinced that George Bush was as stupid as Gerald Ford — perhaps the most athletic president we ever had — was physically uncoordinated. So if you wanted to save the country from stupidity, in a race between John McCain and the former titular editor of the Harvard Law review… well, you get the idea.
More specifically it was probably the "independent" vote and the Hispanic vote that made up the margin of victory for Obama in 2008. And that may be where Newt Gingrich proves to be a world-class strategerist.
In their never-ending quest to champion a Republican who will be easy to defeat, the media has clearly favored Romney. They have done their best to savage everyone else and they will continue to tear down every Republican in the race except for Romney because they perceive Romney to be the best possible contrast with Obama. A nice, but dull, very white-bread, Mormon boy. And as a successful venture capitalist he is in the top 1 percent of the 1 percenters. The press won't attack Romney's faith right now but let him get the nomination and we will be inundated with stories about magic underwear, the status of blacks in LDS-land, Kolob, and the question of whether God had sex with Mary. They are saving up for the assault on Romney. Because, the implied (or overt if they are losing) subtext will be, anyone who believes that stuff cannot possibly be as smart as Barack Hussein Obama. And smart matters to the left and to the independent.
A lot has been written about the myth of the independent voter. Independents like to claim 40% of the electorate when true independents are probably less than 5%. Most "independents in name only" lean very strongly toward one party or another despite their protestations. What really distinguishes the independent mindset is a sense that, "I am smarter than the average voter so I refuse to be locked in to a party or a platform." They believe they are all significantly above average and can, therefore, be easily swayed by someone the mainstream media christens as really smart. And even a small percentage, applied in swing states, can affect the outcome of the entire election.
But in the meantime the media made a serious tactical error regarding Newt Gingrich. In what was probably an attempt to damn him with faint praise as a giant among idiots, the press applied the smartest man in the room meme to Newt. There is only one problem. It is true. And the idea has stuck. So now, the press has a problem. They thought they were being clever in casting Newt as the smart Republican, but it has inadvertently increased his appeal to independents. And independents are willing to overlook personal baggage and even a degree of flip-floppery. Consider Bill Clinton as evidence of the former and the popular notion that a smart person must be flexible—and willing to change his or her position when the evidence changes—as proof of the latter.
Now let's look at the states where independents hold the most sway. According to a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll in 2010, independents outnumber Republicans and Democrats in six states. Three of them should be of particular note: Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado. Aside from being the first two primary states, all three are on everyone's list of swing states for 2012. The other three states where independents outnumber the rest of the voting hoi-polloi are New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts. Probably not strong Gingrich territory, but you can't win them all. Besides, in two other swing states, Florida and Nevada, along with the electoral behemoth of California, the increase in independent voters over the past 20 years has been extraordinary.
So the press, the self-described smartest class of people in the country may have given the independent vote to Newt Gingrich. And in doing that, they may have given him five of the ten states most often described as swing states.
But Newt isn't one to simply rest on the praise, however inadvertent, of the media (though I have no doubt he loves it). What he did in last night's CNN debate helped to solidify support in those states and added one other, New Mexico. In the 2008 election, the Hispanic vote was the margin of victory in Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico.
Marco Rubio, Tea Party darling and everyone's dream vice-presidential choice for good reason, has been very clear about the need for the Republican party to moderate its stance on immigration. The press has managed to convince the electorate that anyone opposed to illegal immigration is, by definition, racist and opposed to all immigration. Of course that's not true, but the idea that truth is an essential element in good journalism died in the Battle of Manila Bay in 1898. The Republicans need independents and Hispanics if they expect to have any chance at all to regain the White House.
Newt's reasoned position on immigration may not sit well with those whose preferred solution is simply to ship them all back to Africa (oops, I meant to say Mexico). But it clearly shows that he knows exactly what he is doing on that issue. And the so-called smartest man in the room really may become the most electable.
I’m OK with your so called “amnesty” as long as they don’t have voting rights if they become legal. Which is what Gingrich implied...the trouble is that once that happens then there will be all kinds of law suits from the ACLU and such to get them voting rights...so it is kind of the camels nose under the tent analogy. Anyway, my opinion is that Gingrich is winning the battle for nominee. He clearly is heads and tails above anybody else. At this juncture:-)
I bet those clowns that bolted from the Gingrich campaign and went to work for Perry (who I used to like) over the summer are feeling pretty stupid right about now.
The problem here is that Newt will have to leave elephant in the room (obamacare) off limits. One person has completely shut down Newt in the debates, and it was Mitt Romney. Newt went on the attack regarding Mitt's role in Romneycare, and Mitt quickly brought up the fact that Newt supported the federal mandate to purchase anything, and Newt had absolutely no comeback to that.
Obama will do the exact same thing to him, and Obamacare is the biggest violation of the Constitution out there.
I like Perry and Cain too. I've even given money to Cain. But Perry will be portrayed as W 2.0. No way is he electable.
Cain would not defeat Obama in a debate. But with Newt, Obama would be reduced to a simpering puddle begging the moderator, "Mommy, please make the bad man stop."
I'm sure unemployed US citizens will be comforted by that.
No more McCains. No to Newton Leroy Gingrich.
In Iowa? Corn and wheat are not harvested by hand, and I am unaware of a proliferation of lettuce fields and fruit orchards in the Hawkeye state.
Someone must bring Obama down. I hope like hell Newt knows what a battle he is in for. Obama is a snake and he will fight as such.
We and our champion are in for a Battle Royale...If Newt's the one, he better get prepared!
Newt is an Ethanol whore. It is his version of Solyndra.
But he will be able to buy votes in Iowa with it.
If they have been here for the past 10-30 years what is the difference? I have zero Latinos threatening my job and I live in a sanctuary state. The Latinos I see are the one I hire to do my lawn when I can afford it. They are and will be a permanent underclass. And from what I understand they have figured out they are not welcome here and have started to go back.
No more Mexicans. Texas can keep them.
Again, comforting words to unemployed Americans who can't even find a job cleaning offices at night.
You don't get it, do you?
Absolutely right. I have my own preference for a candidate, Newt (the most likely mongoose), Cain, Bachman, Perry, Santorum, Huntsman, Romney, Johnson, and Paul. Pretty much in that order. But whoever wins the nomination, I will not, like so many around here, take my vote and go home if my guy isn't the candidate. The mission is to defeat Obama. Period.
Yeah, there is that.
In contrast...I have come across many entrepreneurially spirited Latinos who have an excellent work ethic, pay their bills on time and a great sense of what family is. They are the ones we want here...not the dregs of Latino society...
“The mission is to defeat Obama. Period.”
This time around, Yes! Obama must go. Voting third party, or staying home gets Obama reelected...He is EVIL. He must not get another term. He must be replaced with a Republican.
Look in the newspaper for those jobs! My guess is people have gotten too used to government help and don’t bother anymore. I “get it” plenty and the problem is government handouts...it is killing the spirit of the country. The government handouts are what attracts the underbelly of the Latino community here...Keep the good get rid of the bad!
Not at all. Look at the comments here at FR. If it's in Politico, it's regurgitated here within minutes.
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