Posted on 11/23/2011 3:58:59 PM PST by newheart
Early in the campaign I pretty much wrote Gingrich off. But I am giving him a very long second look and to my own surprise it is due in large part to electability. That may seem odd to the "I like Newt, but he has too much baggage to win," crowd (even more odd to the "I can never forgive him for sitting on a couch with Queen Nancy," crowd), so here is my reasoning:
Why was Barack Obama elected in 2008? Yes, it was partly pent-up white guilt as the electorate attempted to assuage their collective conscience for all the wrongs done to dark-skinned people ever since God created the mark of Cain. (That would be Abel's brother, not Herman, and no I don't believe the mark is dark skin. As Herman put it so well, America needs to get a sense of humor.) And BHO, a cipher with no known history or experience seemed like as good a vessel to attach that supposed guilt to as any. Like Peter Sellers character in Being There, or Forrest Gump, he was just a person of the right color (not too dark, not too light) who showed up at the right time.
But it was more than white guilt. Maybe it was Harry Reid's pronouncement that Obama was clean, articulate, light-skinned and sans-ebonic, which provided enough cover for any old school Dixiecrat to deflect the racism that is inherent in their party. Oh wait, that was Janeane Garofalo, the Democrats and this time it really was about Herman Cain. But I digress.
Maybe it was the fact that the press continually waxed poetic about Obama being so damn smart, after all, he defeated the smartest woman in the world for the nomination. After eight years of hearing the repeated mantra that "Somewhere in Texas there is a village missing its idiot," the electorate was convinced that George Bush was as stupid as Gerald Ford — perhaps the most athletic president we ever had — was physically uncoordinated. So if you wanted to save the country from stupidity, in a race between John McCain and the former titular editor of the Harvard Law review… well, you get the idea.
More specifically it was probably the "independent" vote and the Hispanic vote that made up the margin of victory for Obama in 2008. And that may be where Newt Gingrich proves to be a world-class strategerist.
In their never-ending quest to champion a Republican who will be easy to defeat, the media has clearly favored Romney. They have done their best to savage everyone else and they will continue to tear down every Republican in the race except for Romney because they perceive Romney to be the best possible contrast with Obama. A nice, but dull, very white-bread, Mormon boy. And as a successful venture capitalist he is in the top 1 percent of the 1 percenters. The press won't attack Romney's faith right now but let him get the nomination and we will be inundated with stories about magic underwear, the status of blacks in LDS-land, Kolob, and the question of whether God had sex with Mary. They are saving up for the assault on Romney. Because, the implied (or overt if they are losing) subtext will be, anyone who believes that stuff cannot possibly be as smart as Barack Hussein Obama. And smart matters to the left and to the independent.
A lot has been written about the myth of the independent voter. Independents like to claim 40% of the electorate when true independents are probably less than 5%. Most "independents in name only" lean very strongly toward one party or another despite their protestations. What really distinguishes the independent mindset is a sense that, "I am smarter than the average voter so I refuse to be locked in to a party or a platform." They believe they are all significantly above average and can, therefore, be easily swayed by someone the mainstream media christens as really smart. And even a small percentage, applied in swing states, can affect the outcome of the entire election.
But in the meantime the media made a serious tactical error regarding Newt Gingrich. In what was probably an attempt to damn him with faint praise as a giant among idiots, the press applied the smartest man in the room meme to Newt. There is only one problem. It is true. And the idea has stuck. So now, the press has a problem. They thought they were being clever in casting Newt as the smart Republican, but it has inadvertently increased his appeal to independents. And independents are willing to overlook personal baggage and even a degree of flip-floppery. Consider Bill Clinton as evidence of the former and the popular notion that a smart person must be flexible—and willing to change his or her position when the evidence changes—as proof of the latter.
Now let's look at the states where independents hold the most sway. According to a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll in 2010, independents outnumber Republicans and Democrats in six states. Three of them should be of particular note: Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado. Aside from being the first two primary states, all three are on everyone's list of swing states for 2012. The other three states where independents outnumber the rest of the voting hoi-polloi are New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts. Probably not strong Gingrich territory, but you can't win them all. Besides, in two other swing states, Florida and Nevada, along with the electoral behemoth of California, the increase in independent voters over the past 20 years has been extraordinary.
So the press, the self-described smartest class of people in the country may have given the independent vote to Newt Gingrich. And in doing that, they may have given him five of the ten states most often described as swing states.
But Newt isn't one to simply rest on the praise, however inadvertent, of the media (though I have no doubt he loves it). What he did in last night's CNN debate helped to solidify support in those states and added one other, New Mexico. In the 2008 election, the Hispanic vote was the margin of victory in Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico.
Marco Rubio, Tea Party darling and everyone's dream vice-presidential choice for good reason, has been very clear about the need for the Republican party to moderate its stance on immigration. The press has managed to convince the electorate that anyone opposed to illegal immigration is, by definition, racist and opposed to all immigration. Of course that's not true, but the idea that truth is an essential element in good journalism died in the Battle of Manila Bay in 1898. The Republicans need independents and Hispanics if they expect to have any chance at all to regain the White House.
Newt's reasoned position on immigration may not sit well with those whose preferred solution is simply to ship them all back to Africa (oops, I meant to say Mexico). But it clearly shows that he knows exactly what he is doing on that issue. And the so-called smartest man in the room really may become the most electable.
Does NAFTA Newt still believe in global warming? Would NAFTA Newt have signed Kyoto?
Interesting how this shows up on the News Forum:
Newt Gingrich. How the “smartest man in the room” may become the most electable.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011 5:58:59 PM · by newheart · 1 replies
The Old Brain of Newheart | November 23, 2011 | Newheart
Joe Scarborough on Gingrich: He “Strapped on the Same TNT that Blew Rick Perry Up”
Wednesday, November 23, 2011 5:52:40 PM · by BarnacleCenturion · 12 replies
freedomslighthouse.net ^ | November 23rd, 2011 | staff
Did you not watch him call for amnesty last night? MORE, and IMO, fatal baggage in the primaries.
Clever. But he doesn’t hafta.
Illegal alien lover. I don’t think so.
He has not adequately explained this, as he has not received the vetting process that the others have received, but at some point between now and January he will have to explain how he, as the smartest debater on the stage, came to the conclusion that this idea was constitutional.
Sorry but I'm not sure I get your point.
Newt Gingrich. How the “smartest man in the room” may become the most electable.
vs.
Joe Scarborough on Gingrich: He “Strapped on the Same TNT that Blew Rick Perry Up”
I use to have a boss who said that if you were always the smartest person in the room you are hanging out with the wrong people. Are you listening Newt?
Yeah?
In my always humble opinion, my article seems a good, though coincidental, response to the Scarborough article that explains exactly “why in the world Gingrich would say what he did just as he reached the top of the GOP Field.”
Yes, coincidences can be (mildly) funny.
But, this one is also true - just as Newt makes it into the big time, he also blows it.
At 7 pm last night, I might have voted for him.
At 8 pm last night, there was no way I’ve vote for him.
Newt is carrying the buzz because he is smart enough, in this very complicated time, to sort it out and return fire to the enemy...Obama and the Left.
I like Perry, Cain (very much)...but Newt is the only one smart enough to go out on the battle field and meet Obama face to face.
Perry and Cain have stumble on their own feet. Perry in the debates and Cain on foreign affairs (and that blooper about "apples and oranges" with Romney a while back).
Time will tell. But I question Newt’s timing in making a play for the independents/moderates. Holding this until the general would have been wiser. Newt needs Iowa and rocking the boat there at this juncture seems too risky. Then again it may not impact there as much as the conventional wisdom suggest. Iowans are bent at stopping Romney. Should they decide that Newt is the only viable option to do that, then he may get a pass on this.
BEING the smartest man in the room (assuming that’s even true) makes him his own worst enemy when it comes to electability. Unless he can learn to manage his professorial holier-than-thou tendency, his fall could be as dramatic as his rise.
You must have no heart! /s
Two things...
1) Newt gets kudos for being honest.
2) Shows that he has balls...
” Why was Obama elected ? “
People : open your eyes and see what has already happened. Obama stole the 2008 election via voter fraud, but McLame and the GOP did not say one peep. Obama released an obviously forged birth certificate and he is NOT a natural born citizen, yet nothing was done about it. Do you really believe the 2012 election will be fair and square?
So do I. But there are a surprisingly large number of independents in Iowa. Not to mention farmers who depend on migrant labor. So it might even help him in Iowa. After all, it is a blue state at heart.
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