Posted on 10/29/2011 12:06:09 PM PDT by Kaslin
Why would the frontrunner give a chance to middle-of-the-pack Gingrich, a great debater?
Polls show Herman Cain as the frontrunner, and things are going his way. Now, he has agreed to a “modified Lincoln-Douglas”-style debate with Newt Gingrich, where Cain has little to gain and a lot to lose.
On November 5, Gingrich and Cain will go mano-a-mano in a debate about entitlement reform, with no moderator and only a timekeeper from the Texas Tea Party Patriots. “It will be divided into parts, one for each major entitlement — Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid — with each candidate detailing their arguments,” says Bill O’Sullivan, the treasurer of the group. Obviously, the candidates will find ways to bring up other issues if they believe it to be advantageous.
Gingrich’s campaign says it will be respectful, and he will contrast his proposals with Cain “in a friendly way.” There will probably not be any heated, interruption-filled confrontations as happened between Romney, Perry, and Santorum during the last debate.
This debate is a blessing from Cain upon Gingrich. Whereas Cain has frontrunner status, Gingrich is in third place. He is steep in debt and unable to purchase the advertising he needs to be considered a top-tier candidate. The media still isn’t giving him much attention. He’s done well in the debates, but is restrained by the presence of seven other candidates on the stage. Gingrich needs to take away from Cain’s support, or he has no chance of winning. Now, he gets to take on Cain — and only Cain — in the forum that best suits Gingrich.
What does Cain have to gain? It is possible he could best Gingrich and take some of his support, but this is an unnecessary gamble. Cain could simply wait as the right-of-Romney vote coalesces around him and Gingrich’s campaign suffocates. Cain is in a strong position to become the sole alternative to Romney, and if he does he probably wins the nomination.
An important fact that is being overlooked: Cain was hammered in the last debate, yet his support hasn’t dropped at all.
This separates him from Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, whose candidacies quickly fell after being piled on in the debates. As a matter of fact, Cain has a slight lead nationally in the RealClearPolitics poll average. His campaign says he is now raising $1 million per week. At the same time, Rick Perry intends to use his large war chest for a “total destroy mission” against Romney, in the words of someone familiar with his campaign’s plans. This will take negative attention away from Cain, and brings to mind the mutually caused destruction of the Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt campaigns in 2004.
The Iowa caucus comes on January 3. Cain has a 5.5% lead in the RealClearPolitics average. Should he win, there will be a media firestorm, and in all probability Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann will drop out. Rick Perry’s campaign will be injured, probably fatally. All of their support goes to Cain.
Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire (likely on January 10). This eliminates Jon Huntsman, whose miniscule number of supporters he will take.
South Carolina comes on January 21. Here, RCP’s average has him with a 5.7% lead today. Gingrich’s campaign depends upon winning this state, and if Cain wins Iowa, it’ll be hard to see how he overcomes Cain’s momentum. He and Perry are gone if Cain wins. At this point, Cain has rallied the anti-Romney vote behind his candidacy, and he is the favorite to win the nomination.
Cain now has two options. He can move forward with the debate and plan on criticizing Gingrich, such as by mentioning his support for the individual mandate. He’ll have to be extra careful not to make a gaffe worth reporting, as no broadcast networks currently plan to cover it. He can hope that not many people will see Gingrich at his best. Or, he can find an excuse to drop out. It’ll be obvious he realized he made a mistake, but if his supporters stuck with him through the last debate, they’ll stick with him through that decision.
Herman Cain’s campaign is in a position that very few people, especially in the media, ever thought it would approach. Debating Gingrich one-on-one is a gamble he doesn’t need to make.
Also see: Dem Wit: GOP Likes Cain Because ‘He’s a Black Man Who Knows His Place’”
And check out: Is Karen Finney Secretly Working for Herman Cain?
What a noble act that would be!
Perhaps it's more than can be expected, but the potential exists.
After all, Gingrich has studied, explored, and written about the promise of the Declaration's assertions and the Constitution's structuring of a form of self-government to protect individuals.
On the other hand, Cain has, in his lifetime, lived out the fulfillment of those assertions over 200 years later.
An honest debate between two lovers of liberty, minus media intervention in the process, may prove to be a healthy alternative to the circuses we have seen in recent times.
Yeah....and shows 0bambi in a bad light when he tries to weasel out of any and all debates.
The ticket is not possible as they both come from the same state.
The Texas Tea Party Patriots PAC is putting it on. I sent a note to them that they still have enough time to make this a streaming pay-per-view event seeing that nobody in broadcast media is willing to cover it live. Just imagine how this would add to the coffers.
I also asked why not make this a national Tea Party Patriots multi-event aimed at raising funds for these groups. At the signon for the event, a portion of the proceeds would be allotted to the local chapter of their choice. With the popularity of such an event, it could radically change forever the way debates are presented to the public without the media filters.
I used to enjoy Letterman back in the 80s. He was brash and zany. Now he's just a bitter partisan old hack.
Newt's the toughest debater of the lot, so if he holds his own, great.
That being said, I see that people actually are watching these debates. I wouldn't be surprised (nor would I necessarily be happy) to see Newt moving up because of them. Thing is, no matter the order I rank all the candidates, 0 ranks last and will always rank last, so I do hope the better candidates swim to the top.
Don’t understand why people think this is a bad move by Cain. Gingrich has won nearly every debate but cant crack 10% because of his past. Why would that change now?
Cain isn’t a moron, he’ll do just fine, and probably even better in this type of debate than he would in the media run debates that are set up to promote who is the best slimey politicians.
That’s the BINGO, right there.
They might be demonstrating for America what ADULTS look like when they run for President.
This will distinguish them from the others.
Afterward, they can announce Cain/Gingrich.
That’s the winning ticket, right there.
Obama can't bring himself to use any of Clinton's '96 strategies because he's not that kind of person.
Likewise, the GOP field is really wide open and being challenged and tested instead of being handed over to Bob Dole because it was his turn. So the GOP is in better shape right now than it was back then.
If either one has the fortitude to try they can ask in.
You're right, doing that would hammer the crap out of either one before the base, given their level of ability.
Newt lives in VA.
Yes, yes...I can see that.
Two politicians acting without political calculations...why, yes...it could happen...
Bwahahahahaha!!!
Sorry, couldn't keep that one down!
I stand corrected.
I hadn’t seen that video. Thank you for the link.
I’ve definitely seen a new Newt lately. He’s always been skilled in verbal sparring and possessed extensive knowledge of the issues, but his ability to speak to the core issues that we presently face and express clear solutions that resonate with conservatives is above and beyond his usual party-line statements.
It very well could be that they wish to speak to the issues in a gentlemanly manner. If so, that wins them enormous points. Huck mentioned that they’re running the debate like a fundraiser with VIP packages, etc. and wonders if the event is totally staged. I don’t know that the fundraising aspect is necessarily a bad thing. Campaigns do have expenses. If it’s staged, we’ll know soon enough and the event will mean nothing.
Either way, I am looking forward to it. I hope we get to see some or all of it.
And NO question he 'knows' our Constitution; knows it is being eroded by Obama, Inc. and intends on restoring and preserving it.
(Cannot abide Perry; when he cites that Romney 'changes his positions' it is almost laughable - coming from a former Demrat who supported Al Gore!
No, not even Herman is perfect. We do need to support those who are not just smart; but knowledgeable and capable. And we do not have time for on the job training. . .
Newt will wipe the floor with him. And I really respect Herman.
It will have to be an internet stream. If anybody shows it on cable they will be branded as shilling for either of them. I don’t see it being covered by FOX or anyone else.
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