Both believe they have nothing to fear, nothing to lose, and only positive press to gain for a real brain tester
Posted on 10/29/2011 12:06:09 PM PDT by Kaslin
Why would the frontrunner give a chance to middle-of-the-pack Gingrich, a great debater?
Polls show Herman Cain as the frontrunner, and things are going his way. Now, he has agreed to a “modified Lincoln-Douglas”-style debate with Newt Gingrich, where Cain has little to gain and a lot to lose.
On November 5, Gingrich and Cain will go mano-a-mano in a debate about entitlement reform, with no moderator and only a timekeeper from the Texas Tea Party Patriots. “It will be divided into parts, one for each major entitlement — Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid — with each candidate detailing their arguments,” says Bill O’Sullivan, the treasurer of the group. Obviously, the candidates will find ways to bring up other issues if they believe it to be advantageous.
Gingrich’s campaign says it will be respectful, and he will contrast his proposals with Cain “in a friendly way.” There will probably not be any heated, interruption-filled confrontations as happened between Romney, Perry, and Santorum during the last debate.
This debate is a blessing from Cain upon Gingrich. Whereas Cain has frontrunner status, Gingrich is in third place. He is steep in debt and unable to purchase the advertising he needs to be considered a top-tier candidate. The media still isn’t giving him much attention. He’s done well in the debates, but is restrained by the presence of seven other candidates on the stage. Gingrich needs to take away from Cain’s support, or he has no chance of winning. Now, he gets to take on Cain — and only Cain — in the forum that best suits Gingrich.
What does Cain have to gain? It is possible he could best Gingrich and take some of his support, but this is an unnecessary gamble. Cain could simply wait as the right-of-Romney vote coalesces around him and Gingrich’s campaign suffocates. Cain is in a strong position to become the sole alternative to Romney, and if he does he probably wins the nomination.
An important fact that is being overlooked: Cain was hammered in the last debate, yet his support hasn’t dropped at all.
This separates him from Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, whose candidacies quickly fell after being piled on in the debates. As a matter of fact, Cain has a slight lead nationally in the RealClearPolitics poll average. His campaign says he is now raising $1 million per week. At the same time, Rick Perry intends to use his large war chest for a “total destroy mission” against Romney, in the words of someone familiar with his campaign’s plans. This will take negative attention away from Cain, and brings to mind the mutually caused destruction of the Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt campaigns in 2004.
The Iowa caucus comes on January 3. Cain has a 5.5% lead in the RealClearPolitics average. Should he win, there will be a media firestorm, and in all probability Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann will drop out. Rick Perry’s campaign will be injured, probably fatally. All of their support goes to Cain.
Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire (likely on January 10). This eliminates Jon Huntsman, whose miniscule number of supporters he will take.
South Carolina comes on January 21. Here, RCP’s average has him with a 5.7% lead today. Gingrich’s campaign depends upon winning this state, and if Cain wins Iowa, it’ll be hard to see how he overcomes Cain’s momentum. He and Perry are gone if Cain wins. At this point, Cain has rallied the anti-Romney vote behind his candidacy, and he is the favorite to win the nomination.
Cain now has two options. He can move forward with the debate and plan on criticizing Gingrich, such as by mentioning his support for the individual mandate. He’ll have to be extra careful not to make a gaffe worth reporting, as no broadcast networks currently plan to cover it. He can hope that not many people will see Gingrich at his best. Or, he can find an excuse to drop out. It’ll be obvious he realized he made a mistake, but if his supporters stuck with him through the last debate, they’ll stick with him through that decision.
Herman Cain’s campaign is in a position that very few people, especially in the media, ever thought it would approach. Debating Gingrich one-on-one is a gamble he doesn’t need to make.
Also see: Dem Wit: GOP Likes Cain Because ‘He’s a Black Man Who Knows His Place’”
And check out: Is Karen Finney Secretly Working for Herman Cain?
Sounds like. The more I read about the event, the more it sounds like a semi-staged joint campaign event, which I agree should help them both, even if they work sincerely during the “debate” to defend and promote their policies.
I could maybe live with such a ticket.
An important fact that is being overlooked: Cain was hammered in the last debate, yet his support hasn’t dropped at all.
The point is that Cain's focus at this time is expanded name recognition. The underlying philosophy is that there's no such thing as bad publicity.
Don't remember who said it but what matters is that "they spell my name right."
I think you have nailed it.
Interesting contrast. Perry is going to hide behind his paid ads and stage managed campaign speeches while Cain is willing to go out and make his case to the voters.
Guess we will find out which strategy is better.
I could. It would beat Obama and put a non-PC President in office.
If it’s the fundraiser, who will benefit from the ticket sales? Will they divide the funds? Or is it winner take all?
Yep..and I thought so from the start...interesting how candidates team up and play in each others parks in order to offset the media and their opponents.
Also the fact none in the media have yet to say they’d run it speaks volumes IMO. So Cain and Newt are basically saying they’ll have the game in their own park and probably rely online sites to get it out there....once it goes viral then the news hounds will jump on it if only for a moment.
At one time I was a pretty fair chess player. Played and beat the local city champ many times. Played GM Reshevsky once and lost but not that badly. 40+ moves if IIRC.
My wife and her family are not chess players. Mrs p6 beats me all the time. Not because she’s good...she makes totally illogical move that are not part of any conventional opening and I think things too much.
Newt should beat Cain but who knows?
Hey Phil....I really like that shot of Newt and Cain together....is that all photoshopped or real between them?
There is no comparison to make. IMO Perry has taken the wrong path.
I have no doubt that many would find that easier to believe this of Cain than of Gingrich and I would have shared that judgment until I viewed the video of Gingrich at the College Board Education Forum. Those of you who have not seen the video might take a look and tell me if you do not see an entirely relaxed and self-possessed Newt Gingrich who is speaking out boldly without much calculation but with wit and charm to a degree that he utterly dominated his interlocutors.
Do you see a new Newt Gingrich?
I think it's entirely possible that we have two patriots doing the right thing in engaging on these issues in this kind of forum.
Link to video:
http://gretawire.foxnewsinsider.com/video/one-candidates-take-on-education-a-sometimes-overlooked-topic/
I love the idea. These two are men of ideas, not men of sound bites as the rest of the candidates are. Cain can learn a lot from Newt to prepare him for the destruction of the Obama-prompter in the general election debates, if Zero even shows up to debate..
Yes, I agree. That’s a ticket.
I am not from Georgia, but good to hear from people who are familiar with Georgia politicians. So, the debate should not turn into a mud wrestling match. I am hoping!
Look at this way....it is much better Cain Vs Newt
than Cain Vs Santorum
or, Cain Vs Bachmann
or, Cain Vs Perry
or, Cain vs Huntsman
or, Cain Vs the other front runner, flip flopper Mitt.
>>Newt is the master debater and any one of the candidates would lose IMO.
Cain doesn’t have to win the debate. The opportunity to get up on stage alone with another serious man full of great ideas and have a debate that features depth and not sound bites will only help Cain (and Newt). If we voters take this seriously, it gives notice to the sound bite media that we are past “Hope and Change” and into “Good Plans and Intelligent Ideas”.
Cain is crazy like a Fox. He intends to choose Newt as his VP. The Georgians are longtime good friends. The only losers will be Mittens and Ricky La Raza.
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