Posted on 10/29/2011 12:06:09 PM PDT by Kaslin
Why would the frontrunner give a chance to middle-of-the-pack Gingrich, a great debater?
Polls show Herman Cain as the frontrunner, and things are going his way. Now, he has agreed to a “modified Lincoln-Douglas”-style debate with Newt Gingrich, where Cain has little to gain and a lot to lose.
On November 5, Gingrich and Cain will go mano-a-mano in a debate about entitlement reform, with no moderator and only a timekeeper from the Texas Tea Party Patriots. “It will be divided into parts, one for each major entitlement — Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid — with each candidate detailing their arguments,” says Bill O’Sullivan, the treasurer of the group. Obviously, the candidates will find ways to bring up other issues if they believe it to be advantageous.
Gingrich’s campaign says it will be respectful, and he will contrast his proposals with Cain “in a friendly way.” There will probably not be any heated, interruption-filled confrontations as happened between Romney, Perry, and Santorum during the last debate.
This debate is a blessing from Cain upon Gingrich. Whereas Cain has frontrunner status, Gingrich is in third place. He is steep in debt and unable to purchase the advertising he needs to be considered a top-tier candidate. The media still isn’t giving him much attention. He’s done well in the debates, but is restrained by the presence of seven other candidates on the stage. Gingrich needs to take away from Cain’s support, or he has no chance of winning. Now, he gets to take on Cain — and only Cain — in the forum that best suits Gingrich.
What does Cain have to gain? It is possible he could best Gingrich and take some of his support, but this is an unnecessary gamble. Cain could simply wait as the right-of-Romney vote coalesces around him and Gingrich’s campaign suffocates. Cain is in a strong position to become the sole alternative to Romney, and if he does he probably wins the nomination.
An important fact that is being overlooked: Cain was hammered in the last debate, yet his support hasn’t dropped at all.
This separates him from Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, whose candidacies quickly fell after being piled on in the debates. As a matter of fact, Cain has a slight lead nationally in the RealClearPolitics poll average. His campaign says he is now raising $1 million per week. At the same time, Rick Perry intends to use his large war chest for a “total destroy mission” against Romney, in the words of someone familiar with his campaign’s plans. This will take negative attention away from Cain, and brings to mind the mutually caused destruction of the Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt campaigns in 2004.
The Iowa caucus comes on January 3. Cain has a 5.5% lead in the RealClearPolitics average. Should he win, there will be a media firestorm, and in all probability Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann will drop out. Rick Perry’s campaign will be injured, probably fatally. All of their support goes to Cain.
Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire (likely on January 10). This eliminates Jon Huntsman, whose miniscule number of supporters he will take.
South Carolina comes on January 21. Here, RCP’s average has him with a 5.7% lead today. Gingrich’s campaign depends upon winning this state, and if Cain wins Iowa, it’ll be hard to see how he overcomes Cain’s momentum. He and Perry are gone if Cain wins. At this point, Cain has rallied the anti-Romney vote behind his candidacy, and he is the favorite to win the nomination.
Cain now has two options. He can move forward with the debate and plan on criticizing Gingrich, such as by mentioning his support for the individual mandate. He’ll have to be extra careful not to make a gaffe worth reporting, as no broadcast networks currently plan to cover it. He can hope that not many people will see Gingrich at his best. Or, he can find an excuse to drop out. It’ll be obvious he realized he made a mistake, but if his supporters stuck with him through the last debate, they’ll stick with him through that decision.
Herman Cain’s campaign is in a position that very few people, especially in the media, ever thought it would approach. Debating Gingrich one-on-one is a gamble he doesn’t need to make.
Also see: Dem Wit: GOP Likes Cain Because ‘He’s a Black Man Who Knows His Place’”
And check out: Is Karen Finney Secretly Working for Herman Cain?
I haven’t watched the David Letterman show for years. I got so tired of hearing him bash George W....non-stop...every night.
Curious to know who he is belittling now, I watched last night. Wouldn’t you know...it’s Herman Cain. Even did a “Top Ten” countdown...if you could stand it...just awful...
http://www.cbs.com/late_night/late_show/video/?vs=Top%20Ten
It’s a private event. Not televised. Run like a fundraiser. The only way it sets a new tone is if someone posts camera-phone video on youtube.
I doubt it.
I would love to see a debate between the two!
Cain-to the point and focused
Gingrich-experienced and savvy
Smart move. Cain and Newt will show how it is to be done and teach the media it's about what candidates stand for, not the show the media wants to put on.
Cain appears to be the frontrunner now, but I don't see him going the distance. I think he's going for broke on this and he will probably win the nomination if he pulls it off, I just don't see that happening.
The real loser in this debate will probably be Perry.
There will be a great deal of sanity in this debate.
I look forward to it.
My understanding is it has not yet been determined who will carry it...but they are opting for that.
Yes gonads plus he gets to hone his skills and sharpen up areas in which he is weak. Perhaps Newt can school him in this refinement process. Its really a good idea. Too bad Perry didn’t have more debate skills and also introduced his economic plan right out of the gate. He might still have been the frontrunner. Cain goes in relatively prepared as possible.
Surprised CSPAN3 wouldn’t go for it. Then again, I don’t know what the promotors are asking.
He's thinking it's important to talk about the issues w/o having to share the stage with those two babbling, bantering buffoons Perry and Romney who burn up all the air time.
You might be looking at a “ticket” when this is said and done.
...by Cain willing to go up against one of the best debaters in our nation it shows he's unafraid to take on the best of them...that's courage. So where are the other candidates? Well Perry's not going to do debates I understand...that's a cowards way out no matter how one wants to discenr his intent. Besides Perry never wanted to run anyway...he enjoys his current job...obviously.
Bachman's struggling to get her place...and Romeny's in his typical cruise control, taking up air space while other s "work" at winning. He's simply letting the media and GOP do his work for him.
He’s thinking: I can beat Newt.
If Cain can hang with Newt in a debate and sound reasonable and smart, then he will have done himself a favor. That’s what’s in it for Cain.
We shall see but no doubt PJ and Red State and others will have the videos regardless.
Two outcomes IMO.
1. Newt makes Cain look like an amateur with his extensive knowledge and verbal sparring skills. Voters begin to see Cain as unprepared for elected office.
2. Cain holds his own against Newt even though poorly matched in skill sets. Voters get confirmation that Newt and Cain are engaging in a gentlemen’s contest rather than a political mud fight.
Either way Newt wins big in public opinion. Cain takes a big risk.
For example there is Newt's jumping on the Global Warming train, and his chastising Conservatives for not rallying behind Dede Scusaffasa in NY 23. Newt has a long record of talking a good game and being just another GOP Establishment water boy.
In a choice between Conservative principals and political expediency, Newt will go with expediency every time.
Ping. (Interested in your thoughts about this debate.)
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