>>It is an interesting data point, but don’t get overly enthused by a poll of this type. If some other polls show similar, then we can party!
No way is this TX poll from July. Cain was almost unheard of then.
I had been wondering if the Cain surge seen in many (but not all) recent polls was real.
So I guessed that a ballpark confirmation could be done using this Texas poll, plus the six STATE polls that came this week. One could guess those might represent the country as a whole pretty well, since it included TWO super liberal BLUE states (NH and HI) four battleground purple states ( IA OH FL SC) and one red state (TX)
If anything, the rest of the country might even lean MORE toward Cain as a whole.
I averaged these latest state polls, as follows:
| Sample | Cain | Romney | Gingrich | Paul | Perry | Bachman | Huntsman | Santorum | Spread | |
| U.S. COMPOSITE | 3449 GOP | 30.7 | 22.2 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | unknown | Cain +8.5 |
| TX | 844 GOP | 33 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 1 | Cain +14 |
| OH | 500 GOP | 34 | 19 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Cain +15 |
| HI | 293 GOP | 36 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Cain +12 |
| SC | 476 GOP | 32 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 1 | NotAsked | Cain +16 |
| FL | 505 GOP | 30.2 | 32.6 | 11.7 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 2 | NotAsked | Romney +2.4 |
| IA | GOP RV | 26 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 1 | NotAsked | Cain +8 |
| NH | 409 GOP | 24 | 39 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 5 | NotAsked | Romney +15 |
| Sample | Cain | Romney | Gingrich | Paul | Perry | Bachman | Huntsman | Santorum | ||
| U.S. ZOGBY | 1214 GOP | 45 | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
I also show Zogby for comparison.... RealClearPolitics does not like them because they are an online poll.
But Zogby has 10% fewer 'undecided's than telephone polls... probably because those online pay closer attention to politics. ALSO, I see Michele B is low in the zogby and higher in the nationals, so it would seem Zogby relies more on men because more men use computers.
I also show a weighted 4-poll rolling average of recent national polls which also shows trend results similar to the 'composite' above.