If you look back through previous elections, you can see the pattern that is emerging now.
Conservatives can’t unite behind a candidate, so their votes are divided to the point where the “moderate” has a plurality and ends up with the nomination.
Any time a strong conservative starts to move up in the polls, partisans of the other conservative candidates will make darn sure that this candidate’s rise won’t last.
That’s true. Perry wouldn’t have been my first choice (I’m not sure who would have been - maybe they don’t exist!) but he’s pretty conservative on the whole and even his immigration position, which seems to have provoked hysteria among a tiny but vocal group here, is good and he has a track record to back it up (unlike the other candidates). He’s not perfect, but he’s sure a lot more conservative than Romney, who is the only one who will benefit by knocking Perry out of the race.
The problem is that a lot of the noisiest “conservatives” are those with the most extreme, isolated positions and are also often obssessed with one issue. They create such a storm of misrepresentation and confusion around any candidate other than their own (who then becomes a saint in their minds) that the average GOPer just throws up his hands and walks away, afraid to support anybody.
And then the establishment moves into the vacuum and puts up some tired old RINO pol who has been hanging around so long that it’s now “his turn” (remember Dole? those were actually the words a GOP head honcho used).