In Palin v Obama v Romney, Palin wins (OMG!)

270 to Win dot Com ^ | 09-30-2011 | Parksstp

[parksstp]

Sarah Palin cannot win if she runs as a third party. I’m inclined to believe that for all the reasons previously listed, most notably that she would “split” the GOP vote with Romney between conservatives and moderates, thus handing the election to Barack Obama. But astonishingly, there is a path to POTUS for her and it is much less far-fetched than one would think.

The other day, Sarah was talking about this being an “unconventional” campaign. What I am writing here, should this strategy come to fruition would fit that definition nicely. Well, at least it’s more believable than the garbage Farah wrote in WND about Sarah going into the Democratic Primary.

Despite Obama’s enormous weaknesses, all signs point to this race being a dog-fight because of how the Electoral College plays out in Obama’s favor. In most Electoral math scenarios for the GOP, the idea is that the economy and the Tea Party gains will allow them to take back IN, NC, VA, OH, and FL, getting to 266 electoral votes. That leaves one additional state the candidate must capture in order to win. For Romney, his best chance appears to be NH. For Palin, it appears to be IA.

Now let’s assume for a moment that Romney wins the GOP nomination. We know there is much dissatisfaction with him, especially among Tea Party activists and grass-roots conservatives. The question being asked now is whether or not there is significant dissatisfaction with him in the traditional “red states” of the south and west that would prompt voters to stay home, vote third party, or vote Obama?

Enter Sarah Palin. Problem solved. You would think upon Palin’s entry into the race Romney would treat her as a rival similar to Obama. I assure you this would not be the case. The objectives change in a 3-man race versus a 2 man race. In a head to head, one needs to get to 270 Electoral Votes for an outright win. In a 3+ man race, one only need to finish in the top 3 of the Electoral Vote count while denying the top EV getter the 270 outright majority, and have your supporters in the majority in Congress.

All signs point to the House of Representatives retaining a Republican majority of state delegations, therefore denying Obama reelection in the case he fails to get to 270 Electoral Votes.

So what does this mean for Romney and Palin? It means that they could potentially win the Presidency with as few as 135 Electoral Votes. Is there a viable strategy for the both of them to realistically get to this number? You betcha!

Romney knows his weaknesses in the South and West hurt him, and Palin’s entry could seriously threaten to turn a traditional red state blue should the vote split. So, if Romney’s smart, he will say positive things about Palin or even endorse her in these states without risking flipping the state. Why on earth would he do this? Because it keeps Obama from getting to 270 Electoral votes.

Likewise, in a third party run, Sarah will have some cash resources, but probably not the level of Romney or Obama. Here’s the crazy part: Sarah should cede the big red states to Romney. Now why should she do that? First off, because she likewise keeps Obama from getting to 270 Electoral Votes. But as we also see, even if Romney takes all the “big” states, she can still come in 2nd place in the Electoral Vote count and carry more states, putting enormous pressure on the state delegations in the House to support her over Romney. In fact, you could see this very issue popping up in the Congressional races about whom a candidate would support.

Here’s how: (This is not the only possibility, but you get the point):

Obama wins: 268 Electoral Votes: WA (12), OR(7), CA(55), NV(6), CO(9), NM(5), MN(10), IA(6), WI(10), IL(20), MI(16), DC(3), MD(10), DE(3), PA(20), NJ(14), NY(29), CT(7), RI(4), MA(11), VT(3), ME(4), HI (4)

Palin wins: 136 Electoral Votes: AK(3), ID(4), MT(3), WY(3), ND(3), SD(3), NE(5), KS(6), OK(7), MO(10), AR(6), LA(8), MS(6), AL(9), GA(16), SC(9), TN (11), KY(8), WV(5) and either AZ(11) or IN(11)

Romney wins 134 Electoral Votes: FL(29), NC(15), VA(13), OH (18), TX(38), NH(4), UT(6), and either AZ(11) or IN(11)

Palin lets Romney win the big states since he has more money, while Romney will be afraid to touch states Palin is strong in for fear of giving Obama the chance at an Electoral Vote majority.

Also, looking closer at the Palin states, except for maybe GA and MO most of the states are very small market, meaning she wouldn’t have to pour multi-millions into them. And Romney’s not going to want to spend money in states that should already be in the red column, so he’s going to ignore them and cede them to Palin and hope he can capture a traditional blue state. However, if he fails to do so, despite winning FL, OH, and TX, he could still finish 3rd in the Electoral College count.

Palin, Romney and Obama would go to the House where we could face a quandary the likes of which have not been seen since 1876 because unless a candidate can win 26 State delegations, they will not be able to win. There is no way Obama will be able to win the state delegations given the projected make-up of the House. However, in the scenario above where Palin wins as many as 20 states and Romney wins as few as 8, Romney would face an uphill battle getting to 26, because GOP delegations that vote for Romney in states Palin won would be committing political suicide. It could lead to a game of chicken between Tea Party caucus members and the rest of the GOP has to who would blink first. If Romney can pick off a state somewhere and best Palin in the Electoral Vote count and the popular vote, his case becomes larger. But if Palin holds more Electoral votes, things could get real ugly. I think in the end, they’d have to support Palin. It would damn the Republican Party into obscurity for 2014 and beyond if they didn’t.

[parksstp]

Realistic? Yay or Nay?

[Diogenesis]

That means America wins.

Proven-Failed Governor Mitt Romney should be NOWHERE near government in the USA.

"As U.S. real output grew 13 percent between 2002 and 2006, Massachusetts trailed at 9 percent.
* Manufacturing employment fell 7 percent nationwide those years, but sank 14 percent under Romney, placing Massachusetts 48th among the states.
* Between fall 2003 and autumn 2006, U.S. job growth averaged 5.4 percent, nearly three times Massachusetts' anemic 1.9 percent pace.
* While 8 million Americans over age 16 found work between 2002 and 2006, the number of employed Massachusetts residents actually declined by 8,500 during those years.
"Massachusetts was the only state to have failed to post any gain in its pool of employed residents," professors Sum and McLaughlin concluded.
In an April 2003 meeting with the Massachusetts congressional delegation in Washington, Romney failed to endorse President Bush's $726 billion tax-cut proposal."
[Cato Institute annual Fiscal Policy Report Card - America's Governors, 2004.]

[Dr. Sivana]

It would damn the Republican Party into obscurity for 2014 and beyond if they didn’t.

Unfortunately, there is a significant contingent of house pubbies who would rather be reduced to obscurity than see a President Palin. For some of them, it may be related to avoiding jail time.

[JohnBrowdie]

I’ve been waiting for the “Sarah should run as a third party candidate” chorus to start. it would be a disaster. but I also think it’s not worth considering.

if she decides to run, I have no doubt that she would run as a republican.

[Dr. Sivana]

That said, we should not even be whispering third party. If SP spurns the Republican primaries and goes third party (and these days, you have to due to sore loser laws), we back one of the other solid conservatives in the race. I am a Palin supporter, but the first order of business is to defeat Romney.

[wtc911]

Realistic? ----- Nope.

A palinite wet dream? Yup.

Palin(™) can't even get Freepers united behind her (including many of us who pre-date most of you palinites by years). There is zero chance that she would come close in a three-way or even a two-way election.

Somebody else called a palin(™) third party run effectively treason. I agree...and would say the same for any third party run that dilutes the GOP electorate.

[parksstp]

I agree, I was just throwing the idea out there. Better to defeat Romney in the primary than for her to take him on as an indie. But I was just amazed at how many EV’s those small states make up.

[parksstp]

lol, u know I’m not a Palinite, right? Bachmann was my gal and I got crucified for battling the Palin KAD’s who were on a rampage to destroy her before she imploded herself. I’m just throwing out the ideas of what Palin may or may not be thinking.

Even if she jumped in, I’d be inclined to support Cain or Santorum over her, given how vicious some of her supporters have been towards the other candidates. In the general though against Romney, it’s a no-brainer.

[kevkrom]

No, not realistic. Also incorrect in some points — the threshold for being a candidate if it goes to Congress is top-5, not top-3. Nor do I see Palin winning a brokered Congress vote.

All of this is beside the point. Palin is pragmatic and has made it clear that a) she won’t run 3rd party and b) she’s not interested in the VP slot. And yet, on a daily basis, we’re subjected to vanity theories that she’s either going to run 3rd party or is angling for VP.

Should Palin run (and I bet she will) it will be as a Republican, and it will be with the top of the ticket in mind.

[tallyhoe]

Obama wins!!!

[JPG]

What happens in your scenario if PA goes ahead and apportions their EV between congressional districts?

[Vigilanteman]

I wouldn't necessarily put the following in ObaMao's safe column either: NV(6), CO(9), NM(5), MN(10), IA(6), WI(10) and PA(20). It is entirely possible that moderate votes in those states which otherwise might go to Obama could go to Romney or even Palin.

Particularly here in Pennsylvania where an electoral vote split here is a real possibility if pending legislation favored by our governor and senate majority leader is adopted.

Possible scenario in this case might be 4 for Obama, 3 for Palin, 13 for Romney. There are two Philadeplphia area districts, the Scranton area district and one Pittsburgh area district where ObaMao is either still popular or a sufficient number of brain-dead and really dead voters actually reside. The rest of our commonwealth is very much in play.

[¢ommon ¢ents]

Won't happen. The problem is ballot access and ballot placement.

In the Florida Senate race last year, we had Governor Crist (RINO turned independent) running against Rubio and the Democrat, Kendrick Meek. IIRC, the polling had Charlie Crist at least a bit competitive, possibly even beating the Democrat.

I knew Crist was going to lose badly when I heard his radio commercial during the early voting period. He was telling people, "Look for me on line 9 on your ballot."

I know Palin's die hard supporters will find her no matter what. However, independents, and conservative Republicans probably won't go to the trouble. Like it or not, we have a two party system in this country, and the parties work very hard to keep it that way. This is why TEA partiers need to concentrate on getting on the ballot with one of the parties (usually the Republicans).

Palin's path to victory is to announce (soon) and win some primaries. Anything else is a waste of time.

Oh, and throwing it to the House of Representatives is a Republican victory anyway. The problem is that Obama pics up some states when Palin and the establishment Republican split the vote. It's likely that a Palin challenge turns into an Obama landslide, mainly by denying the Republican candidate a lot of electoral votes. I doubt Palin gets many electoral votes at all.

[Norm Lenhart]

“Somebody else called a palin(™) third party run effectively treason. I agree...and would say the same for any third party run that dilutes the GOP electorate. “

BWAAAHAHAHAH!!!!

God your PDS is in stage 5. It has rotted your mind. One “TM” post out of hundreds too many I guess. Look up treason sometime.

Wait a sec...Treason....LOLOL! Oh God, please....stop! Too funny....In public he said this....

I know we have our differences WTC, but you made my whole week!

[Vigilanteman]

See my post #12.

[ScottinVA]

We can create scenario after scenario, threading the needle to a theoretical third-party victory. This amounts to hoping lightning strikes exactly where you want it.

MO, IN, FL, NC, OH, NH, and VA are not red enough to survive a split GOP vote (especially with Romney atop the ticket), so that theory is dead from the start. Splitting the GOP vote hands Obama the win.

If Palin wants to be the Ross Perot of 2012 and send 0bama back for four more, that’s her right. But, I’d like to think her patriotism would outweigh such an ego trip.

[faucetman]

Interesting. Would only work if the fix was in from the beginning. Meaning Palin and another top tier candidate agree in advance to try to pull this off. Why would you do this when Obama is a sitting dead duck? Why would Romney ever agree to such a thing? He would try to win outright. He wouldn't just GIVE all the small states to Palin.

I'm not ruling out some sort of third party try, but this ain't it.

I think Palin goes after and wins the GOP nomination. The best and most likely path to victory.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

The last Republican I want to be our nominee is Romney but given this scenario, I would vote Romney in a NY minute. At least he was willing to fight it out in the Republican primary and Palin will be nothing but an ego enhancing traitor.

If she can't win Republican primary, she certainly cannot win in a third party scenario.

I do compliment the author. A lot of thought has gone into this scenario and it is fun.

[spokeshave]

....maybe someone will drop a real BC on 0bambi.....

[Lucky9teen]

I’m for Palin no matter what. If she’s in, good on America.

I also think, more people would vote for her, than will admit. And if she ends up getting in the race and becoming the GOP nominee, it’ll be a blow out.

That’s just my $.02