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Well the good news is the "NY-26 in reverse" scenario I envisioned from a few monthes ago didn't seem likely but the pieces have fallen into place nicely. There are only three choices on the ballot for this Congressional seat -- 1) a likeable, political outsider Republican candidate getting crossover support, 2) a gaffe-prone machine Dem candidate who serves in the state legislature, and 3) a far-left third party candidate who appears to be polling around 3-4%, nearly all of his votes coming from liberals who are dissatified with the RAT nominee.

I agree that if Turner wins this seat, it's quite possible that NY might eliminate BOTH Weiner and Lee's former seats. That would essentially make both "upsets" meaningless and be an effort on the part of NY politicians to hope voters forget about the fisacos that happened when Congressman resigned in 2011.

But whatever, a "GOP wins Congressional seat held by Dems since 1920s" headline would be worth it just to rub in the faces of the RATs who gloated they had a "mandate" on "Medicare, medicare, medicare!" when they won Lee's seat thanks to a phony "tea party" candidate splitting the conservative vote.

Even if Turner wins, the NY-09 won’t be as easy to get rid off as people think. Sure, Democrats Crowley (NY-07) and Ackerman (NY-05) may be happy to take on the NY-09’s Queens precincts, but where will the socially conservative, Orthodox Jewish (with many Russian Jews as well) precincts in Brooklyn go? Maybe the Republican, largely Italian Staten Island NY-13 (which includes Bensonhurst) can take on some, but not many. The Hispanic-majority NY-12 and the black-majority NY-10 and NY-11 won’t want any of them. And then you’ve got all of those very similar precincts right next door in the Brooklyn portion of Nadler’s NY-08, which are also heavily Orthodox (it includes Borough Park) and, like the Brooklyn portion of the NY-09, voted for Bush and McCain in 2004 and 2008. Maybe the Assembly Democrats will block the creation of an Orthodox Jewish CD in Brooklyn, but they’d have to parcel out around 500,000 residents of the Brooklyn portions of NY-08 and NY-09 among Democrats who won’t want those conservative voters thrown into their districts, and it won’t be easy.

Orthodox Jewish, Democrat Assemblyman Dov Hikind endorses Bob Turner:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/dem-assemblyman-endorses-republican-new-york-special-election_592773.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Main reasons for Hikind snubbing fellow Democrat Assemblyman David Weprin and endorsing Turner instead: Weprin voting for legalizing same-sex marriage (and claiming that his Orthodox Jewish upbringing led him to support same-sex marriage), and President Obama’s policies towards Israel.

This could be huge.