A Republican victory here would be amazing. I expect that Turner would face another incumbent in 2012 if he wins, with an upstate Democrat (probably ultra-leftist Maurice Hinchley) also getting the ax in redistricting.
What, he lives in/near Howard Beach? — the narrow neck of the 9th?
He could be put in with Towns (10th) or Meeks (6th) but those districts will be majority black and he will have no chance.
If this is the case then I suspect Hochul will be left without a district also.
If the 9th stretches north, I don’t think it can stretch all the way to Roslyn Heights (Ackerman). It might stretch to Woodside (Crowley). The 12th is 44% Hispanic - it could be majority if it borrows some from Crowley’s 7th.
If the 9th stretches southwest I don’t think it can stretch all the way to Manhattan, although it could take in a good bit of the current 8th (Nadler).
If the 9th stretches southeast, he could be matched with Peter King (in which case Hochul is matched with either Higgins or Slaughter), or McCarthy, or he has his own seat.
If the latter then Hochul has her own as well. Slaughter’s seat would have to stretch to Syracuse — possibly Ithaca but if so then Hinchey is in a difficult position.
Yes he would be the obvious target for elimination in the traditional 1 for 1 NY fashion (do they lose 2 seats every time?).
But they key is that would save another Republican from getting it in his place.
It's a reasonably close race, but don't expect the GOP, lacking much of a "ground game," to pull off the upset. Fraud can make up for the couple of percentage points that the 'Rat might trail by.