Posted on 07/20/2011 5:07:08 PM PDT by curth
This is actually the second Hot Air straw poll this month. The first one showed virtually the same results as this one, Sarah Palin crushing all comers, but the increasingly anti-conservative, anti-Palin website chose to spin some of her best results ever, as somehow a bad thing, and I was laughing so hard I simply couldn’t type a response to Patrick Ishmael’s drivel, and didn’t publish the results.
Here’s a link to that survey, you compare it with the latest, and find that Sarah’s support is once again stronger than ever. And, once again, Ishmael looked for an angle, so we get this nonsense in the new poll results:
The Approval results are in. Leading the pack when Presidential supporters are removed is Paul Ryan, followed by Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, John Bolton and Herman Cain.
Now Paul Ryan, whose budget plan is supported by Sarah …. she was the first to get on board …. is not a candidate for President, and has said in no uncertain terms that he will not be a candidate, and yet ….
Ishmael uses a plot device known as “average without presidential support” to create his little narrative. In other words, he bounces those who approve of a candidate, but do not support them for president, vs the ratings for the same candidates among those who do support them as a presidential candidate. This is how he is able to show someone who isn’t a candidate and will not be a candidate leading all comers, or so he CLAIMS, thus getting the headline he wants. This is a rather meaningless number though.
Either way, among actual and prospective candidates, Sarah Palin is the strongest, and getting stronger. In the presidential vote, out of a long list of 15 candidates [plus "other"] Sarah gets 38% of the vote, with Rick Perry, like Sarah, an undeclared candidate getting 23% of the vote.
Out of actual declared candidates, only Michele Bachmann breaks into double digits with 10% of the vote. Mitt Romney gets a whopping 7% of the vote.
The survey also looks at overall approval. They use a sliding scale 1-7, with 1 being the worst, and 7 being the best or “highly approve.“
Again, Sarah Palin is far and beyond the leader here with 49% rating her a 7 a “highly approve” rating. By contrast, out of potential or announced candidates, Rick Perry comes in second with 25%, and Bachmann 22%. The non-candidate, never will be candidate, Paul Ryan has a 30% “highly approve” rating. So much for Ishmael’s meme du jour.
Hot Air also has a couple of individual match-ups.
The most telling is the Palin/Bachmann contest. In the survey taken over the Fouth of July weekend it was Palin 52.18% Bachmann 47.82%. Now that folks have had almost a month of watching Bachmann, being Bachmann, the results are quite different. It’s now Palin 62% Bachmann 38%. It seems the more people see of Bachmann, the less inclined they are to support her, at least among Hot Air’s readership, 49% of which call themselves conservative with another 32% calling themselves “very conservative.”
HA also matches Rick Perry up with Tim Pawlenty, with Perry getting 78% over Pawlenty’s 22%. No surprise there.
In a Palin vs Perry match-up Sarah beats Rick 52% to 48% Which is the exact number Sarah was beating Bachmann by at the first of the month. I can’t quite bring myself to call my own governor a “flavor of the month” but once people see Rick Perry in action, and look into his record, look for his numbers to go down, though not as bad as Bachmann’s. [if he actually runs]
As always, straw polls are what they are, and any poll this early is little more than interesting entertainment. But they do show trends, and Sarah Palin has crushed all comers in these Hot Air polls since last November. In fact, her support only gets stronger. Hot Air has taken a leftward lurch, and become more of a GOP establishment house organ, since it’s founder Michelle Malkin sold the blog to the Salem group, but their readers are politically savvy and conservative. They are a very good representation of the base of the Republican Party.
The take away from the latest poll is no one is excited about the current Republican field. It’s very weak and has no one that can rally the troops to fight the Obama regime. None of the current declared candidates can beat Barack Obama. Rick Perry will definitely make a splash should he join the fray, but as people realize he is more of an establishment candidate, Donald Rumsfeld has been advising him, and Karl Rove is downright giddy at the prospect of Perry running, the bloom will come off the rose.
Sarah Palin is the only person who can rally the base and reach out to independents. Her record of governing in Alaska shows she knows how to work with a very diverse group to get incredible things done. As this latest polling shows once again, Sarah Palin has a base of support that would follow her through hell with a bucket of gasoline in each hand if that’s what it took. While it’s likely conservatives will hold their nose and vote for whoever the nominee is, should it not be Sarah, or even Rick Perry, folks will actually get out and campaign, knock doors, make phone calls, and so on, for Sarah Palin!
Before we go further, here are the results:
Ishmael also said this over the Fourth:
Whoever emerges between Perry and Bachmann will have the electoral advantage on Palin, who it appears has serious electoral maneuvering problems even among the base. Palin’s strength is the excitement of her supporters and the high commitment of those supporters to her. Her weakness is, simply, that there won’t be enough of them to carry her through the current field of primary candidates. I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right.
Ahh, the old “Sarah Palin should be a cheerleader and drag someone else’s sorry ass across the finish line” ploy. If you are so weak you need a kingmaker to get you through a campaign, you are too weak to be a king. Anyone who can be a kingmaker, can damned sure be the king.[or QUEEN]
From his ramblings, it’s obvious Ishmael doesn’t even reed his own polls! Though he stopped asking the question once he learned the answer [over and over] his polling found that Palin supporters are strong and unwavering. Recent Gallup polling shows 52% Of Sarah Palin’s Supporters Certain “No Chance They’ll Change” Romney? Only 30% which backs up the results of earlier HA polls.
It seems not to matter to Ishmael that Palin has convincingly won every poll he’s taken as well. Ishmael requires all participants to include their zip code, and was publishing a nifty map that shows where a candidate’s support came from. It always showed Sarah’s support strong nationwide. This is likely why he no longer publishes the map, since his own research destroys the meme he’s trying to create.
Oh, and back to the cheerleader thing. You know who the cheerleaders are out of this bunch, actual cheerleaders?
Michele Bachman:
Rick Perry:
(THE AGGIELAND)
Rick Perry, far right, in the 1971 Texas A&M yearbook, The Aggieland. This is a photo of the Aggie Yell Leaders.
By contrast, Sarah Palin was point guard and co-captain of her team, and took the team to the state championship, scoring the winning shot. [on a broken foot no less] She’s number 22 in the photo:
Can we finally put this “cheerleader” nonsense to bed? Sarah Palin is a born leader. She successfully led a ball team, a city, and a state. She’s a real winner, and a champion. Winners become champions because they know how to win. Sarah Palin knows exactly how to beat Barack Obama and win the 2012 election. Better still, she has the skill to govern the nation once she gets there.
Strangely, those words I have believed in all of my life, but I’ve never written them down.
Great job.
“This will not happen, because Palin is not going to run.”
If you say so.....
That’s hilarious! A new line of ‘reasoning” ...Christianity.
Well, they tried practically everything else and failed. I’m surprised they could even find a new ‘reason’.
You're whistling past he graveyard, FRiend. No one knows the future with that much certainty but God. Your tagline suggests you should agree with this. Do you claim to have a special divine revelation? Or do you claim to have actual knowledge of facts that prove your assertion that are not available to the general public? Or are you just making your best guess like the rest of us? Because if it’s the latter, you've got some substantial evidence to deal with that runs counter to your theory.
Five more days, and the statute of limitations runs out for Alaskan ethics suits.
She’ll announce by mid September, or sooner.
from CP
Shocker: Palin Loses the Hot Air Poll if You Take Away All The People Who Voted For Her
Posted on July 21 2011 - 11:57 PM - Posted by: Nicole Coulter
I was so worried when I saw Rick Perry’s photo under the headline of the most recent Hot Air presidential poll. Ok, wait, this was a Patrick Ishmael Hot Air post … so let me rephrase … I was very, very worried. (Better, better right?)
Was it possible that Gov. Palin had been pushed from her perch as the 10-time reigning champion of the Hot Air Presidential Survey and replaced by the guy who played the vice president on The West Wing?
Incidentally, I’ve always been a Tim Matheson fan! Doesn’t he look like Governor Perry?
The first paragraph really really confused me as a non-poll person … how about you?
The Approval results are in. Leading the pack when Presidential supporters are removed is Paul Ryan, followed by Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, John Bolton and Herman Cain.
So, in other words, when you take away all the people who voted for her, Sarah is in third place approval-wise. Yeah, that makes perfect sense. (Ahem … ) Okaaaaaaaay. Still, no mention of Perry in that paragraph. So I read on …
In the Presidential vote, Sarah Palin remains on top, followed by Rick Perry who has strengthened, Michele Bachmann who has weakened, and Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who round out the top 5.
Now we are getting SOMEWHERE. Perry has strengthened! So, no doubt, this is gonna be a heckuva race between Palin, Perry and the field, right? But wait …
What the ?!?!?!
That little red V-shaped line is Mr. West Wing VP? And that blue line soaring nearly 20 points above Mr. West Wing VP is Sarah Palin?
Well, that’s just not right ….
So why don’t we dutifully remove all the other candidates, and see what Palin-Perry would look like in a head-to-head since that is so gonna happen during the primaries.
Perry 2951 48%
Palin 3257 52%
Wow! Stunning results, and another near-loss by Palin in a head-to-head matchup that typifies primary voting in a packed field. Perry has picked up six points from the 4th of July head-to-head poll, no doubt all of that coming from fickle and frustrated Michele voters. (The pride of Waterloo went from losing to Palin by 4 points head-to-head to now trailing by 24 points head-to-head.)
I take back my initial concern. I am not very very worried. I am very very VERY worried. Because there’s no way Perry could pull a Bachmannesque nosedive next time. And it’s not like Palin’s 49% highly approve rating doubles his or anything.
Carry on, Hot Air. We still love ya. And at least we have the Obamateurisms to look forward to everyday, right?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.