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Thank you Brices Crossroads for your wonderful piece. For those of you who wonder why Sarah Palin will win the GOP nomination:

1)Mike Huckabee is NOT running in 2012 (several interviews over the past year, Mrs. Huckabee not giving Huck the thumbs up, Huck’s 7 figure gig at Fox, their new heavily mortgaged home in Florida, a June cruise to Alaska, Huck announcing he will not be making any decision to the latter part of summer if he decides to run at all, Huck cancelling his presidential PAC but keeping his normal PAC open, Vander Plaats in Iowa had to backtrack about Huck showing up in June to speak). Need I go on.

With Huckabee out of the mix several polls have shown that Palin would benefit the most from his non-entry into the 2012 race and that she would have a substantial lead over the rest of the field.

Does anyone really believe the greatest majority of Huck’s evangelical supporters are going over to Romney?

2)By virtue of the Rasmussen poll released just over 2 weeks ago, Sarah Palin now leads among support from evangelical Christian voters and also among TP supporters. Yes there is overlap but each constituency roughly represents 40% of the entire GOP primary electorate.

3)Sarah Palin has announced she is hiring a chief of staff for SarahPAC. As we all know eventually she will be moving him over for her presidential campaign. Once Palin proves to the world she is a serious player the skeptics who think she is not will be totally on board.

4)Palin’s speech at the Reagan Library changed a lot of people’s minds imho as she came across as very presidential in that speech and not so energetic as she is in rallies.

5)And finally did you see the results of the American Spectator poll now being held over the last few days. Of a field of 20 horse race entrants and the OTHER category she now leads with about 51% of the vote with Ron Paul the nearest at 5.5% of the vote. She has over a 45% lead over her next opponent. If that isn’t dominance what is?

And by the way you can only vote once in the poll and you must be human to vote.

“Thank you Brices Crossroads for your wonderful piece.”

Back atcha, Techno. And if I might be so presumptuous as to quote from your own incisive analysis of the crosstabs of the recent NBC-WSJ poll that had Obama beating Palin 55-33, you observed that 57% of the white voters in that poll stated they definitely planned to vote against Obama and only 27% definitely planned to vote for him. You wrote:

“But why you know the NBC/WSJ poll and other MSM polls that show Palin way down to Obama are bogus can be found in the category of WHITE voters. I confess I missed this the first time around but these numbers are the key to understand why Obama is very, very vulnerable in 2012. Only 27% of WHITE voters at this time would DEFINITELY PLAN TO VOTE to re-elect Obama while a whopping 57% of WHITE voters DEFINITELY PLAN NOT TO VOTE FOR THE MESSIAH IN 2012.

Now you my ask why this is the most critical numbers? Well folks, in the most simplistic terms 77% of the electorate in 2010 were WHITE voters. In 2012 I would venture to say it will stay in the 75%-77% range because of the intensity of animosity towards Obama. You take 75% and multiply that by 27 what do you get? 20.3%. And now let’s break down the what Obama could get in 2012 among non-white voters: 95% from African-Americans who represent 13% of the overall electorate; 67% of the Hispanic vote which represents 9% of the electorate, and 60% of the Asian vote which represents 2% of the electorate. Now let’s add that up:

WHITE VOTERS: 27% X 75= 20.3
A/A: 95% x 13= 12.4
Hispanic 67% x 9= 6.0
Asian 60% x 2= 1.2
Other 60% x 1= 0.6

Total 40.5%

Note that I have maximized Obama’s percentages with non-white voters. In actual fact in 2010 the Dems only got 89% of the Black vote and 60% of the Hispanic vote. But you then ask what if Obama gets the same 37% of the WHITE VOTE IN 2012 as the Dems got in 2010 and not 27% as is now reported by Marist how would that change the numbers. Well let’s take a look:

White voters: 37%x 75% 27.8

That would increase Obama’s percentage of the vote by 7.5% to a total of 48% overall. But what if Obama was only able to get percentages with non-white voters comparable to 2010 assuming he gets 37% of the white vote.

White voters: 37% x 75 27.8
A/A 89 x 13 11.6
Hispanic 60 x 9 5.4
Asian 60 x 2 1.2
Other 60 x 1 0.6

Total 46.6%

But what if white voters represent 77% of the 2012 vote as they did in 2010 and with accompanying declines in the non-white percentage of the vote given 2010 totals in each group:

White voters 37 x 77 28.5
A/A 89 x 12 10.7
Hispanic 60 x 8 4.8
Asian 60 x 2 1.2
Other 60 x 1 0.6

Total 45.8%”

You very concisely demonstrate the deep hole Obama is in with white voters and the fact that they are concentrated in battleground states like Ohio and PA that he absolutely must have. And his numbers with whites have really failed to rise out of the thirties. In my view, based upon a strictly demographic analysis, Obama must be considered an underdog for reelection UNLESS the GOP nominates a candidate who is soft on illegal immigration, affirmative actions and political correctness, which positions would drive down white turnout. Such a mistake would be compounded if the GOP nominated a candidate like Mitch Daniels who wants to deemphasize the social and cultural issues and cut adrift that huge chunk of votes (which are principally white evangelicals).

Sarah Palin is EXACTLY the right candidate to maximize white turnout, which is where the 2012 election will be won or lost. She alone among the GOP candidates is unafraid and completely uncowed by the PC police.