Replies

“Thank you Brices Crossroads for your wonderful piece.”

Back atcha, Techno. And if I might be so presumptuous as to quote from your own incisive analysis of the crosstabs of the recent NBC-WSJ poll that had Obama beating Palin 55-33, you observed that 57% of the white voters in that poll stated they definitely planned to vote against Obama and only 27% definitely planned to vote for him. You wrote:

“But why you know the NBC/WSJ poll and other MSM polls that show Palin way down to Obama are bogus can be found in the category of WHITE voters. I confess I missed this the first time around but these numbers are the key to understand why Obama is very, very vulnerable in 2012. Only 27% of WHITE voters at this time would DEFINITELY PLAN TO VOTE to re-elect Obama while a whopping 57% of WHITE voters DEFINITELY PLAN NOT TO VOTE FOR THE MESSIAH IN 2012.

Now you my ask why this is the most critical numbers? Well folks, in the most simplistic terms 77% of the electorate in 2010 were WHITE voters. In 2012 I would venture to say it will stay in the 75%-77% range because of the intensity of animosity towards Obama. You take 75% and multiply that by 27 what do you get? 20.3%. And now let’s break down the what Obama could get in 2012 among non-white voters: 95% from African-Americans who represent 13% of the overall electorate; 67% of the Hispanic vote which represents 9% of the electorate, and 60% of the Asian vote which represents 2% of the electorate. Now let’s add that up:

WHITE VOTERS: 27% X 75= 20.3
A/A: 95% x 13= 12.4
Hispanic 67% x 9= 6.0
Asian 60% x 2= 1.2
Other 60% x 1= 0.6

Total 40.5%

Note that I have maximized Obama’s percentages with non-white voters. In actual fact in 2010 the Dems only got 89% of the Black vote and 60% of the Hispanic vote. But you then ask what if Obama gets the same 37% of the WHITE VOTE IN 2012 as the Dems got in 2010 and not 27% as is now reported by Marist how would that change the numbers. Well let’s take a look:

White voters: 37%x 75% 27.8

That would increase Obama’s percentage of the vote by 7.5% to a total of 48% overall. But what if Obama was only able to get percentages with non-white voters comparable to 2010 assuming he gets 37% of the white vote.

White voters: 37% x 75 27.8
A/A 89 x 13 11.6
Hispanic 60 x 9 5.4
Asian 60 x 2 1.2
Other 60 x 1 0.6

Total 46.6%

But what if white voters represent 77% of the 2012 vote as they did in 2010 and with accompanying declines in the non-white percentage of the vote given 2010 totals in each group:

White voters 37 x 77 28.5
A/A 89 x 12 10.7
Hispanic 60 x 8 4.8
Asian 60 x 2 1.2
Other 60 x 1 0.6

Total 45.8%”

You very concisely demonstrate the deep hole Obama is in with white voters and the fact that they are concentrated in battleground states like Ohio and PA that he absolutely must have. And his numbers with whites have really failed to rise out of the thirties. In my view, based upon a strictly demographic analysis, Obama must be considered an underdog for reelection UNLESS the GOP nominates a candidate who is soft on illegal immigration, affirmative actions and political correctness, which positions would drive down white turnout. Such a mistake would be compounded if the GOP nominated a candidate like Mitch Daniels who wants to deemphasize the social and cultural issues and cut adrift that huge chunk of votes (which are principally white evangelicals).

Sarah Palin is EXACTLY the right candidate to maximize white turnout, which is where the 2012 election will be won or lost. She alone among the GOP candidates is unafraid and completely uncowed by the PC police.