Posted on 01/07/2011 1:05:49 PM PST by Brices Crossroads
Barack Obama is, I believe, crafting a two-fold strategy to defeat Sarah Palin in the likely event that she secures the GOP nomination in 2012. Of course, his path to reelection would be made exponentially easier if she is not nominated, but it is becoming increasingly clear to him that she will be the nominee. Both components of his strategy hearken back to past campaigns, one rather distant and one quite recent. Both are, in my judgment, destined to fail.
The first component of this strategy is his so-called move to the center, by which he hopes to replicate Bill Clinton's victory of 1996. There are obviously many distinctions between 1996 and 2012, but both Clinton faced and Obama is facing a GOP controlled House, after an historic repudiation of his policies. However, Clinton's signature accomplishment--Hillarycare--went down in flames, so he was free to face down the GOP, which had a general notions of cutting government but no coherent plan to do so and certainly no concrete program to aim at. Obama, on the other hand, jammed through his signature accomplishment, ObamaCare, in spite of its wild unpopularity, and he and his allies in the Senate will have to oppose repeal. Indeed, in 2012, the GOP is almost certain to make even bigger gains in the Senate and to take control, which means that Obama's veto pen would be the only obstacle to repeal. Having thus succeeded with this and much of his statist agenda, Obama is not free to move to the center as Clinton did. He must stand athwart history, veto pen in hand, yelling at the GOP in Congress, "Stop!" Thus the policy atmospherics of 2012 are distinctly different than those of 1996.
And not just the policy atmospherics, but the likely political atmospherics as well. In 1996, the GOP nominated the quintessential big government, Establishment Republican, the ancient Bob Dole who even his ideological first cousin, George H.W. Bush dubbed in 1988 the "tax collector for the welfare state." The big government, lackluster Dole (aided by a capitulation to Clinton by the Gingrich-led House on spending and the government shutdown) generated a third party candidacy by Ross Perot which garnered 10% of the vote, permitting Clinton to win an easy plurality victory. If the GOP nominates one of Palin's likely three major competitors--Romney, Gingrich or Huckabee--all of whose big government bona fides are beyond cavil--Obama could well ride the 1996 model to a second term. This is the reason for the all out effort to destroy Palin and to dissuade her from running. With Palin in the race, there will be no third party, at least not of the Perot variety, which is the only kind which could significantly damage her. A third party by someone like Bloomberg would damage not Pain but its intended beneficiary, Barack Obama. Hence, you will not see one.
The second leg of Obama's anti-Palin strategy recognizes the flight of white voters away from the Democrats and seeks to staunch the bleeding. The so-called Colorado model, seeks to employ a strategy similar to that of the winning 2010 Colorado Senate race, in which the winner lost blue collar white women by double digits and blue collar white men by more than 2-1, but held his losses among college educated white men by single digits and won college educated women by more than 2-1. Ron Brownstein writes in the Natinal Journal:
"More specifically—and perhaps more revealingly—Axelrod also has his eye on the Colorado example, where the exit poll found that Bennet lost blue-collar white women by double digits and blue-collar white men by more than 2-to-1. Yet he prevailed by amassing strong support from young people, Hispanics, and other minorities; holding his deficit among college-educated white men to single digits; and routing Buck among college-educated white women. A similar formula, Axelrod suggests, could be available to Obama in 2012, especially if the Republican presidential primary process, as he expects, tugs the eventual GOP nominee toward the right. “The Bennet thing was particularly instructive,” Axelrod said. “They made a big effort there not only among Hispanics but women. The contrast he drew with Buck was very meaningful. That’s why I say the gravitational pull of those Republican primaries is going to be very significant.” "
http://nationaljournal.com/magazine/in-2012-obama-may-need-a-new-coalition-20110105?page=5 LINK
Leaving aside the obvious distinctions between Colorado and other states in which this strategy might be employed, the "Colorado model" explains a lot about Obama's obsession to demonize Palin and to do all he can to see that she is not the GOP nominee. This protracted "two minutes of hate" so reminiscent of Orwell's 1984, which has been leveled at Palin, is aimed chiefly at educated voters and, if she is the nominee, it will have to be undertaken with even more ferocity with the likely result being a backlash against Obama by the very same white women he needs to target. (Many of the educated white women in Colorado may have voted against Buck because they perceived him to be misogynistic, not because of any affinity for Bennet).
Palin's nomination will pose a very real threat to the Colorado model, however. First, her percentages with blue collar whites will be even higher against Obama than Buck's were against Bennet. More to the point, however, the attacks on her intelligence and competence may eventually wear thin with the demographic to which they are designed to appeal: educated white women, many of whom have felt the sting of misogyny up close and personal.
In 1980, the Carter-Mondale campaign launched a number of attacks on Ronald Reagan. Two of the most salient were: 1) Reagan is going to cut social security and throw grandma out into the snow; and 2) He is too old and senile to be President. These attacks, particularly the social security canard, seemed to have gained real traction against Reagan according to the polls. I remember reading about him answering a question at a gathering of senior citizens about the so-called threat he posed to social security, Reagan gave a standard policy answer and, I suppose, saw he was losing his audience. He just stopped and in his "aw shucks" manner, said, "Hey. I am one of you." In 1980, in spite of the virulent age driven attacks on Reagan, he carried voters over 60 by 54-40 (Anderson got 4%), whereas Gerald Ford had won them by only 52-47 in 1976.
When Barack Obama ramps up his "Colorado Strategy" and stands on the debate stage with Palin, an accomplished, self reliant woman who has spent her whole career deconstructing "the good old boys" network, he had better hope that his target audience---educated white women---don't turn en masse to one another and say, "She's one of us."
If (or should I say, when) that happens, it will be "Katy bar the door" for his Presidency.
Also, in the Perot example? Is that a suggestion that a Rino repub will be the “perot” against her? The perot example only makes sense in a three way race,, and it still doesnt apply here.
Perry is an empty suit who talks and sounds like GW Bush.
... or another person not in the news now.
Any person who hasn't put himself/herself into the news while our country is being destroyed, lacks a major qualification to be our nominee.
Ignorance is a terrible thing I just hope you don’t pass you case to someone else.
Defeating Obama won't be an easy task, even if the economy is in worse shape than it is now and unemployment is at close to 30%! This nation was once there and FDR kept on being re-elected. We can't fight racists votes, rampant fraud, and hard core lefty voters with a nobody, a wishy-washy, and/or non-fighter candidate.........which just about covers the vast majority of names thrown around here, by the folks who wouldn't vote for Governor Palin, no matter what.
Our side's biggest problem, should we get stuck with a candidate who isn't as able as Palin, is that we stand to lose the House and the gains made in the Senate, in '10.
“Any person who hasn’t put himself/herself into the news while our country is being destroyed, lacks a major qualification to be our nominee.”
******************************************
Well said, Freereign. Needs to be repeated every time the mythical “Mr. No-Name” is trotted out as the alternative to Palin.
Hmmmmmmmmmm...........in the bluest of blue states, New Jersey, Christie won and did so with indy votes.
We're two years out......who knows where what polls will say, vis-a-vis Palin, then; especially after the primaries ( should she win them )and the state of this nation. And polls can be made to say anything the takers want them to.
Gee, President Dewey and that two termer, Carter, really did swell.................didn't they? WHAT, that didn't happen? But, but..............the polls, even within weeks/days of those elections would lead one to believe that that is what would happen.
Haven't heard Sarah mention the "Volunteeeeeeers".
Ross may have been a good ole boy, but he evidently was in it simply to do George H.W. in.
Got in, got out, got back in. It was obvious he didn't want to be president, but just wanted to make sure Bush lost.
He succeeded.
If Sarah runs, she will run to win.
All else equal, there is sense in that.But when is "all else equal?"
Hardly ever happens, and I doubt it happens this time.Sarah Palin (Drill, baby drill!) is uniquely positioned to attack the Achilies Heel of the Obama economic policy - the fact that he is taking Gulf energy out of production. The effect of Obama's policy will be forcibly brought home to every driver in the country. He can run, but he can't hide from the gas pump.
Not true, Newt Gringrich was the one who said this.George H.W. Bush dubbed in 1988 the “tax collector for the welfare state.”
I think you'll find that it was Jack Kemp who said that.
Yeh, what’s the strategy for this racist SOB - kill only white men and let women and children live for another week?
Well, king obama, bring on your fat welfare momma division, and see if you can pry away their two litter bottles of Coke and the jumbo bags of chips from their cold, greasy hands.
The welfare mommas and the low IQ street rappers will never die on a hilltop for the glory of King obama and the Nazi George Soros.
Dream on, Harvard boy.
The last time Harvard placed a man on the battlefield was 150 years ago, during the American Civil War and he’s honored at Harvard.His name is Robert Gould Shaw. He’s honored by a stained glass window at Memorial Hall at Harvard.
You gutless left wing Marxists would spit on his grave.
Ahh, yes, another poster without the fortitude to provide any bona fides re his background as evidenced by lack of any profile. The circumstances we face now are considerably more dangerous than when The Shrimp - i say this reverently because he had bigger cajones than a lot of the male prospective candidates we have now - made his play at a third party. You cite the independents poll numbers without any presentation of evidence and oh by the way, how many of the newbies in congress and governerships - supported by Palin - won with the help of independent votes? By my count that would be at least 71 versus 6 losses. As for your assertion that the news media will tear her apart, they have tried, they have failed and they have been found wanting. Go post your PDS somewhere else where it might be appreciated, like the the commie KOS.
Another poster with no bona fides. And obviously one who has been stuck in a basement with no news or outside stimulus for the past 2 years. Hundreds of thousands of people countrywide descending on the DC cesspool does not constitute an "unprecedented grass roots, highly motivated groundswell"? Hundreds of thousands of honest folks in every major city in the country standing against Obama and his thugs doesn't count either? Yeah, i know, not all stand for Palin, but most - if not all - stand for her principles. So keep on keeping on with your negative vibes, while the rest of us do the heavy lifting for you.
I'm one of the ‘older’ voters, so is my husband, and the crowd that we hang out with are all older voters...we’
served our country, raised our kids, retired, and we can get very loud...the news media has torn Sarah Palin apart for almost three years, and she still stands TALL...she will run and she will win...The American voters are tired of the same old same old.
I have not purchased news papers, nor news magazines for over ten years, do not watch the ABC news channels, the MSM is a dying breed...
by the way just who do you support?? for a new LEADER?
wooly must have returned to DU he has not responded once since his post at 4 P.M....
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
