I agree with everything you post here, imho you definitely are very, very well informed on this issue
But the thinking in the South is that the North is not suicidal, and knows it cannot “win” a full scale war.
When they fired at the island last month, the south fired on their positions... it’s not like the South has never hit back.
I don’t know if such an attack is prudent, but the the North is in a weak position politically, the Army doens’t dig this son of his AT all. And I would do everything in my power to at least make the North think Seoul would launch airstrikes... they surely need to establish some deterrent against firing on civilian areas, there’s next to none now
NK cannot win a war, we know that and they know that. But the harsh reality is that the North has virtually nothing to lose, and the South has everything to lose. It's like playing chicken when you're driving a new BMW and your opponent is driving an LTD. The economic damage that would be inflicted on Seoul and the ROK would take a generation to repair. The ROKs are too proud of their economy to even think about risking it... just look at how thrilled they were to become a member of the G20. There were ads on the radio and TV for almost a year leading up to the event.
NK’s goal #1 is survival of the regime. Not the country; KJI and the elites. If that's threatened in any way, I really think that all options are on the table for them.
It's all just political posturing from politicians that took some polls and are saying what the people want to hear. I don't believe for a minute that they'd actually pull the trigger.