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Implausible bordering on ridiculous. North Korean military power is based on two things: 1) special forces, and 2) massive concentrations of long range artillery.

NK's special forces, the largest such force in the world, are designed for fighting in the rear areas of the Republic of Korea (ROK) disrupting services, resupply, reinforcement, etc. They are a purely offensive force.

That leaves artillery as NK's hub of power and only defense/deterrent against a ROK first strike. Which is why it is prepositioned to cause maximum economic and civilian target damage against the Greater Seoul Metropolitan Area (GSMA). That's also why their ammo stockpiles are not large enough to fight a war; they only want/need enough to annihilate Seoul. I forget the exact numbers but projections are that hundreds of thousands of rounds would land in the GSMA every hour for the first 48 hours of any conflict.

Any kind of attack against NK's artillery assets would be a direct attack on the country's defense and regime's power. There's no way that KJI or his military would allow such an attack. The ROKs would be insane to retaliate unless they were committed to sacrificing their economy and fighting a full scale war.

I agree with everything you post here, imho you definitely are very, very well informed on this issue

But the thinking in the South is that the North is not suicidal, and knows it cannot “win” a full scale war.

When they fired at the island last month, the south fired on their positions... it’s not like the South has never hit back.

I don’t know if such an attack is prudent, but the the North is in a weak position politically, the Army doens’t dig this son of his AT all. And I would do everything in my power to at least make the North think Seoul would launch airstrikes... they surely need to establish some deterrent against firing on civilian areas, there’s next to none now

Domalais - no offense intended, but I believe you (and many others) greatly over-estimate the numbers and effect of the DPRK’s long range artillery.

I am not exactly sure how far north you would draw the boundary of the GSMA, but for arguments sake, the numbers below are based upon how much artillery the DPRK can bring to bear on downtown Seoul (financial/highrise district).

Contrary to popular belief, not all of the DPRK’s approx 10,000 artillery tubes positioned north of the DMZ have the range to reach downtown Seoul. In fact, the estimates I have seen are more like only 250-500 artillery pieces (and the higher #s only come into play if you include their 240mm MLRS systems).

The only DPRK arty with range to hit dt Seoul from behind the DMZ are the M-1985/M-1991 240mm MLRS systems and the M-1978/M-1989 170mm howitzer.

The DPRK is estimated to have only 200 of these 240mm MLRS systems and 200 170mm howitzers down by the DMZ. That’s not to make light of the situation because a signifcant amount of shells could still be layed down on Seoul, but a few hundred artillery tubes firing on downtown Seoul is ALOT different than 10,000 tubes.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?162240-Bluffer-s-Guide-North-Korea-strikes!-%282009%29

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/m-1985-mrl.htm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-14/fighter-jets-to-buzz-seoul-as-south-korea-simulates-attack.html

Also, the ROK military has recently expressed confidence that in all likelihood it would be able to detect if the DPRK was preparing to launch its long range arty on Seoul and would be able to pre-emptively knock out a number of those tubes. Not to mention whatever surviving long range batteries are going to be priority for counter-battery fire.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2637356/posts

I believe the real threat to Seoul are the DPRK’s SRBMs (SCUDs and FROGs). I suppose the other big threat would be if the DPRK staged an invasion and advanced 10-20 miles on the western side of the DMZ they could wheel forward some of those other 10,000 shorter range arty tubes.