Posted on 12/08/2010 3:06:19 PM PST by FTJM
It's well documented that Sarah Palin has problems with Democrats and independents, but the first seven states where we've looked at the 2012 Presidential election make it clear that she has a Republican problem as well.
It's not that Republicans don't like her- on our last national poll 68% rated her favorably, making her easily the most popular prospective 2012 candidate with Mike Huckabee at 63%, Newt Gingrich at 57%, and Mitt Romney at 56%. It's that a lot of the Republicans who don't like her- in contrast to the Republicans who don't like Huckabee, Gingrich, or Romney- aren't willing to hold their nose and vote for her in the general election.
Across the 7 individual states where we've done 2012 polls so far- Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Montana, and Virginia- Palin averages receiving 77% of the Republican vote against Barack Obama. That puts her slightly behind Gingrich at 80% and well behind Romney and Huckabee at 84%. Palin does the worst of the Republicans among Republicans in Montana, Missouri, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota. Only North Carolina where she does better than Romney and Virginia where she does better than Gingrich and Romney serve as exceptions to the rule.
Republicans may hate Barack Obama but there look to be a pretty meaningful percentage of them who don't hate him enough to vote to put Sarah Palin in the White House. When you combine that with her complete lack of appeal to Democrats and independents she looks virtually unelectable for 2012.
Here's the full data on how the Republicans do with Republicans...
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com ...
when it’s only Sarah or moogly she will win...I<HO
when it’s only Sarah or moogly she will win...IMHO
That's what Christine O'Donnell's supporters claimed, too.
Maybe Palin will get them, but I tend to doubt it. She is a divisive figure, and independents tend to stay away from such candidates.
Her best hope is that the I's will be disgusted by their choice that they'll just stay home on election day.
It was the RINO snots, following Tokyo Rove's directive, who refused to vote for a conservative.
I think if it’s Palin v Obama it will be CLOSE.
I think if it's Palin vs. Obama, we're screwed. JMO.
I think that’s a distinct possibility. I think Sarah has sold who ever is going to buy, and I don’t think it’s enough. AND, I think she’s exactly wrong for the moment. But hey, I’m just along for the ride.
Well, here’s my thing. If Sarah Palin is unelectable in 2012, I’m having trouble imagining America uniting in huzzahs over Mike, Mitt or Newt. No offense.
Everything you say has not been borne out by experience. In fact, it has been proven entirely wrong. If people don’t want Obama, how did he become president? Same with Bush, and Elder Bush, and that the mushy McCain was nominated, and even that John Kerry and Al Gore made it to the top to go against Bush. If people have such high expectations that Sarah Palin can’t possibly measure up to, how in the world did such a selection of stellar individuals get as far as they did?
The biggest drawback to a Palin nomination is that the news media has concentrated as much negative attention on her as Bush I, Bush II, and Dan Quayle, combined. She has been analyzed, criticized, ostracized, chastised, and scrutinized beyond all deserving, in spite of the fact that she has never served in Washington DC. The more negative treatment she gets, the more determined I am to support her. I will not let the media choose my candidate for me, and no other conservative should allow it either.
Link?
When I said people have gotten more distrustful and demanding about politicians, I guess I meant people like me. If we're five percent of the population or so that could account for the difference in the numbers.
I'm not saying the other guys are any better than Palin, just that from what I've seen, it's more likely she'll put her foot in her mouth or disappoint in some major way. The other Republicans probably aren't more right on the issues and may not be that good in office, but I don't have a feeling of disappointment just waiting to happen that I get with Palin. From past experience, she just doesn't do her homework and that can be fatal.
You can say that again!
I haven't seen anything to support that. If you have, I'd love to see it. The most favorable thing I've seen said about O'Donnell and her performance with DE independents is from USA Today - where they described it as "who voted slightly in favor of Coons."
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2010-11-02-de-full-election-results_N.htm
DE is a little unusual because unlike other states, it's Democratic party haven't lost large numbers of voters to "independent", for whatever reason. More can be read here - scroll to the bottom.
If you add up independents and Republicans, it's just about 40K more than what the Dems enjoy in total. Plus, the Independents had the lowest turn-out rate, relative to Dem/Republicans.
If Democrats (like those at PPP) were any more obsessed with Sarah Palin, they’d have to check into rehab. Maybe they should.
The best thing that could happen to Palin is to get picked as VP again. With that under her belt she will be President in 8 years.
You know something? That really was worth saying three times because there’s idiots out there who just won’t get it the first two times! (-:
Smart! NOT.
I can’t imagine anyone getting all fired up for Mitt, Mike, or Newt.
Wow. Another bland old dude in a suit. Yay.
Past performance is no guarantee of future success.
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