Posted on 11/30/2010 3:09:03 PM PST by techno
First to clarify three points:
1)PPP did not do national poll of the 2012 GOP contenders in October due to the midterm election. 2)In September PPP did a poll but did not include a breakdown by age brackets. 3)So my comparisons (in brackets) are based on:
September: overall, ideology, gender August: age brackets
Cat NEWT HUCK PALIN MITT PAUL S/ELSE/UNDEC OVER 19(18)16(21) 21(17)18(22) 5(6) 12(16) LIBS -(11) -(21) - (5) 26(16) -(5) 74 (42) MOD 10(9) 20(22) 13(7) 25(33) 4(4) 20 (22) CONS 23(22)14(21) 24(21)15(18) 6(6) 8 (12) WOM 16(16)20(26) 19(13)20(25) 4(4) 13 (16) MEN 23(20)11(18) 23(20)16(19) 6(6) 11 (18) 18-2936(12)29(41) 29(24) -(12) -(12) -- -- 30-4520(20)14(31) 16(22)23(26) 9 (4) 9 (11) 46-6417(22)14(21) 21(21)18(26) 6 (4) 17 (7) 65+ 17(22)17(16) 23(21)19(21) 1 (5) 9 (16)
COMMENTS AND CONCLUSIONS:
1)The November poll was conducted between Nov 19-21 and also including results for Daniels, Pawlenty and Thune; neither the August or September polls did.
2)With 3 more candidates in the mix Palin increased her overall total by 4 points from Sept to Nov while both Huck and Mitt dropped.
3)Although Mitt still leads with Moderates (25%) he has lost 8 points since September.
4)But in the all-important CONSERVATIVE category which makes up roughly 70% of Republican members, Palin leads Newt by 1 point (24% to 23%) but Mitt has dropped back from 18% to 15% over the last 60 days.
5)Romney has also fallen 5 points among women and 3 points among men, and also fallen 8 points among those 46-64 and 2 points among seniors.
6)But even worse were the losses suffered by Mike Huckabee across the board:
Overall -5 Conservatives -7 Women -6 Men -7 30-45 -17 46-64 -7
7)As for Newt he finished 2nd to Palin in the overall and basically held his own although he did fall 5 points in both the 46-64 and 65+ categories from August.
8)As for Sarah Palin she made key increases across the board:
Overall +4 Moderates +6 Conservatives +3 Women +6 Men +3 65+ +2
And this is the first time in any national poll to my knowledge that Palin has led her opponents in both the 46-64 category and the 65+ category.
And again this cannot be emphasized enough. Palin made these gains in "the horserace" despite 3 new candidates being added to the mix.
And PPP also conducted a poll of the respondents to who their 2nd choice would be if their first choice was not avaiable. Here Palin comes up smelling like roses as well where she is the leading votegetter in among males, the 46-64 age category and the 65+ age category, tied for first in the overall category and the 30-45 age category and second place for conservatives and women as their second choice.
PPP also found that 34% of Huckabee supporters would go over to Palin if Huck was not on the ballot.
And among conservative Republicans voting in the GOP primary Palin's favorable is 78% and even her favorable with moderates stands at 44% only 6 points behind Romney.
Sarah Palin is definitely in the catbird seat now and again I cannot emphasize the significance of Palin leading the other candidates among older folks. That was always her weakness in national polls.
She has the highest overall favorables, and the lowest overall unfavorables.
Agreed 100%. My disaster scenario is Huckster, Palin, and Pence splitting the Socon vote and letting Romney rise to the top. For the life of me, I cannot figure out how someone like Ann Coulter likes Romney.
Doesn't Sarah say, "God Bless!" Is it because he's a minister?
His appeal is the same as Obama's: a calm, reassuring voice. It seems to have a hypnotic effect on a great number of people. They don't hear the words, they hear a soothing sound, which in their minds connotes competence. It's an emotional appeal that skirts the intellect.
Times have changed. Our tens and twenties will overwhelm the country clubbers. Can you say, "money bomb"?
You could even conclude that she's... dare I say it... SMART?
That is why I have been saying a vote for anyone other than Sarah this time around is a defacto vote for Romney. This has ruffled some feathers.
Look how we, as conservatives, split our votes last time and ended up with McCain.
I really think we need to come together early behind Palin if we want a conservative this time, but sadly, this meets a lot of resistance. Conservatives are reluctant to be pragmatic, as they see it as compromising their principles. I understand this, I just wish there was a way to overcome it.
The establishment wants Romney, and they are very good at getting who they want.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.