Conservatives like to see things as black or white with no shades of gray. There is conflicting evidence for both positions. Missile experts still aren't certain what this was based on the limited video.
If you notice in that corkscrew screenshot at the base you can see a thick marine layer *behind* the plume. For that to be an airliner contrail that marine layer would have to be higher than 40,000 ft, which doesn't usually occur. There is very little weather above 40,000 ft. other than whispy clouds and occasional towering thunderstorms, not thick stratus clouds.
Then there's this:
NOTICE TO MARNERS
No. 45
06 NOVEMBER 2010
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Published Weekly by the
National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency
Prepared Jointly with the
National Ocean Service and U.S. Coast Guard
SECTION III NM 45/10
NAVAREA XII
The summary of all NAVAREA XII messages in force as of 17 December 2009 is given in Section III of NM 52/09.
Warnings issued during the subsequent quarters are issued in NM 13/10, 26/10 and 39/10.
NAVAREA XII WARNINGS issued from 211100Z to 281230Z October 2010.
430/10(19).
NORTH PACIFIC.
HAWAII.
ORDNANCE.
1. UNDERWATER ORDNANCE DETONATIONS IN PROGRESS
UNTIL 281159Z OCT IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A. 22-05N 162-00W, 22-05N 165-00W,
21-55N 170-01W, 21-20N 170-00W,
21-29N 164-59W, 21-29N 162-00W.
B. 20-58N 162-00W, 20-56N 164-58W,
20-48N 170-00W, 20-14N 169-58W,
20-22N 164-57W, 20-25N 162-00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 281259Z OCT.
(221414Z OCT 2010)
431/10(GEN).
1. NAVAREA XII MESSAGES IN FORCE 230900Z OCT 10. ONLY THOSE
MESSAGES ISSUED DURING THE LAST SIX WEEKS ARE LISTED HEREIN.
2010 SERIES: 403(19), 424(18), 427(18), 430(19).
2. THE SUMMARY OF ALL NAVAREA XII MESSAGES IN FORCE AS OF
17 DEC 09 IS GIVEN IN SEC III OF NM 52/09. WARNINGS
ISSUED DURING THE SUBSEQUENT QUARTERS ARE SUMMARIZED
IN NM 13/10, 26/10 AND 39/10.
3. CANCEL NAVAREA XII 426/10.
(230926Z OCT 2010)
432/10. CANCELED.
433/10(19).
NORTH PACIFIC.
HAWAII.
MISSILES.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 290130Z TO 290700Z OCT,
ALTERNATE 300200Z TO 300730Z AND
310230Z TO 310800Z OCT
IN AREA BOUND BY
22-00N 159-46W, 22-07N 160-25W,
23-07N 161-49W, 24-25N 162-27W,
29-56N 170-20W, 32-47N 169-47W,
35-34N 164-15W, 36-03N 162-31W,
31-30N 161-28W, 27-00N 162-00W,
24-11N 160-10W, 22-39N 159-36W,
22-10N 159-44W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 310900Z OCT.
(240828Z OCT 2010)
434/10(18).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
MISSILES.
1. INTERMITTENT MISSILE FIRING OPERATIONS 0001Z TO 2359Z
DAILY MONDAY THRU SUNDAY IN THE NAVAL AIR WARFARE CENTER
SEA RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF MISSILE FIRINGS TAKE PLACE
1400Z TO 2359Z AND 0001Z TO 0200Z DAILY MONDAY THRU FRIDAY
IN AREA BOUND BY
34-02N 119-04W, 33-52N 119-06W, 33-29N 118-37W,
33-20N 118-37W, 32-11N 120-16W, 31-54N 121-35W,
35-09N 123-39W, 35-29N 123-00W, 35-57N 121-32W,
34-04N 119-04W.
2. VESSELS MAY BE REQUESTED TO ALTER COURSE WITHIN THE ABOVE
AREA DUE TO FIRING OPERATIONS AND ARE REQUESTED TO CONTACT
PLEAD CONTROL ON 5081.5 MHZ (5080 KHZ) OR 3238.5 KHZ (3237 KHZ)
SECONDARY OR 156.8 MHZ (CH 16) OR 127.55 MHZ BEFORE ENTERING
THE ABOVE BOUNDARIES AND MAINTAIN CONTINUOUS GUARD WHILE
WITHIN THE RANGE.
3. VESSELS INBOUND AND OUTBOUND FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PORTS
WILL CREATE THE LEAST INTERFERENCE TO FIRING OPERATIONS
DURING THE SPECIFIC PERIODS, AS WELL AS ENHANCE THE VESSEL'S
