THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail - The Conclusion)

FluTrackers ^ | 10-12-10 | Original Work

[James Oscar]

This is the final chapter in my series of interviews with the enigmatic Mother Abigail.

It has been the most challenging project of my career. It has also been the most rewarding.

I hope that you enjoy the four works and I will briefly recap the first three for those who are just joining us.

[redgolum]

They are people, and being the science field self selects a small sample of people. Most won’t act, but some could.

[James Oscar]

MA: Because this is such an important concept to understand I would like to take a moment and discuss it with you.

J: Are we getting back to r = n - m?

MA: Laughing, why yes we are, this is just a little groundwork to help with that discussion.

Do you remember any genetics from school?

J: Yes a little.

MA: Good, because the term intermediate expression is very useful in our understand of a continuous spectrum.

In genetics we have two heterozygous genotypes, say a red flower and a white flower, the result of blending these two dominate traits is called intermediate expression.

You will have white flowers, red flowers, pink flowers and an entire spectrum of colors representing the range of expression between these two positions.

[James Oscar]

MA: Another way to speak of a continuous spectrum is to frame it in terms of variations within a species.

You are quite aware that within any species you have wide differentiation. Size, coloration, abilities etc. It is a never ending list of differences that make God's creation such a wondrous joy.

These differentiations are the result of all the possible combinations of genes in an individual member of any species.

So we can say that the intermediate expression of genes results in a wide variety of variations within any species.

Pretty much ABC stuff but it is incredibly important in the discussion we are having.

[James Oscar]

J: Why is that MA?

MA: Because not all answers are yes and no. And not all problems are black and white.

We were discussing how it is impossible to describe the human species as either a “r-selected” or a “k-selected” species because we present traits of both evolutionary strategies.

Our species presents a range of these traits across a wide spectrum of expression.

It is not one way or the other.

Even among the scientific community there is great confusion about this dynamic.

We have, otherwise brilliant, scientists who have attempted to attribute these variation in strategies to race.

It was a foolish error from the beginning. The variations within any given race are as great or greater than between any two races.

When you read about this type of speculation always remember that this type of racial stereotyping has been postulated for generations and it is as bogus as it comes.

The variations are real, but they are exclusively related to behavior and nothing else.

That behavior is motivated by countless different factors but it is not attributable to race.

[James Oscar]

J: OK, I think I understand that we are largely a K species but that within our species there are many different behaviors, some of which are K and some of which are R. Is that close?

MA: Yes.

J: Well MA I am a bit lost. Can you bring me back to some shallow water so I can get my footing?

MA: It would be my pleasure. How about a nice new cocktail to sip while we get there.

J: (Having seen MA’s elaborate bar for the first time I immediately knew my choice) Perhaps a small sniffer of courvoisier, if you don't mind?

[James Oscar]

MA: This bit of explanation has to do with the famous r = n - m. The equation that lets us see if we are expanding, stabilizing or shrinking as a species.

Now we know that r (the rate of increase has been modulating downward for the past 40 years) but it is still in the positive range.

What I have tried to explain is that even if r of the set, as a whole, is declining - there are greatly different trends within multiple subsets of that whole.

Because we as need to determine if the species is indeed modulating it's r to the point of 0 and achieving balance with it's environment and not just posting a small dip in a 600 year upward trend - we must examine the data closely.

And as we have been discussing - that data is very mixed.

Some cultures are into negative population growth (think the Czech Republic and some other European countries) while some cultures are expanding rapidly. (think Latin America, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa).

China is at 1.7 and India is at 2.8 in total fertility rates. So even among the most populous countries there is a difference.

And these differences can lead to huge outcomes. With India above the 2.1 replacement rate in fertility and China below the norm it would only take to 2040 for India to be the most populous country on earth.

But again, predicting future growth rates of any population is very risky business - that is why we are taking such pains to be as accurate as possible in our evaluation of that old pesky r = n - m.

[James Oscar]

J: OK, so if I read this right you are saying that there still might be a case for the “r-selected” behavior to overwhelm the “k-selected” behavior and instead of leveling off either continue expanding or to crash?

MA: You are a very bright young man James.

J: Well it took you an hour to help me get it.

MA: That is an hour well spent.

J: Is there any way to know for sure?

MA: Of course there is, why don’t you come back tomorrow and we will see what we can see - so to speak.

J: Excellent.

[James Oscar]

December 11th, 2010
South San Francisco



I moved from the beach yesterday. The bare bones motels by the sea are OK for a day or two but you miss some of the nicer touches.

I love staying by the sea. The air is so rich and full or smells and tastes, but I learned from experience that nothing ever dries well there. Ruined some clothes with mildew once in 48 hours.

I checked in to one of the Marriots by the bay. They have a weekend deal right now that is hard to pass up.

For those of you going to the city for the first time, do not pay the outrageous rents they want in the city - go out by the airport and have a nice stay for a reasonable rate, and you can still be in the city in 15 minuets.

You will not like the cost vs/ actual accommodations value in many of the San Francisco Hotels, obviously if you stay at some of the places I only get to drive by then that will be different and God bless you for that.

James

[James Oscar]

November 26th, 2010
MA’s Study

J: MA I spent a lot of time this morning thinking about what you said last night. Now that I know what to look for there is a lot of r type behavior in the world isn't there?

MA: Yes there is James.

J: In all honesty, I don't see how, over the short term, k type behavior can overcome the population explosions evident in some parts of the world.

MA: Remember James it is not geographically isolated, there are trends and counter trends in many countries or cultures - even modernized societies.

Let us take England for a moment. That is as about as proper an established modern country as can be found.

Do you know what the most common name given boys at birth in England was last year? Here is a hint Jack has been the most popular for 14 years in a row.

J: William or Harry?

MA: No, the correct answer would be Mohammed.

J: For real?

MA: Yes of course, it is once again the collision between two different evolutionary currents. Immigration from other countries is sparking a baby boom in some areas while the resident population is declining as a whole.

It is an uneven picture. One wave is reproducing and spreading while the other current is falling further and further behind even meeting the fertility rate necessary to maintain their population.

That is what we mean when we speak of differentiation between members of a species. Differentiation in reproductive strategies to the same environment is a pretty telling marker of evolutionary conflict.

[James Oscar]

December 11th, 2010
South San Francisco

Going out for snacks today I noticed that there are three huge billboards in this area advertising fast flights to Tokyo - which got me pondering.

This area is the birthplace of the Bio tech revolution and it it is almost certainly a hub between these companies here and Japan.

For those of you who are science fiction readers, and shame on those of you who are not, this runs a little chill up my spine. The poem MA asked me to post in one of my articles is by someone monikered "Neuromancer". Fair enough - I am not the Haiku type of guy but it works for MA.

However that word is the title to one of the coolest books ever written. The first look at the matrix, bio tech and all sorts of really forward looking writing.

OK, I don't know why that billboard got me into all that but it did. Fiction has a bad habit of getting a little too real when you add a dose of time.

Sorry, but it is a bit creepy to see all these building devoted to something that didn't exist, except in some author's mind, a few decades ago.



James

[James Oscar]

J: MA I believe that I have a good handle on this subject now, can I summarize what I have heard?

MA: Of course James, go ahead.

J: This discussion originated when we speculated on the future of our species in a changing environment. You have since tried to teach me some of the dynamics involved in making such a prediction.

What I now understand is that from the beginning our species has been subject to at least two different evolutionary strategies involving reproduction, fertility rate and species expansion.

J: Good so far?

MA: Excellent, and especially the part where you say “at least two”, because there are many factors involved - but these two paradigms are easiest to understand. Please go on.

J: Our current huge numbers are the results of countless surges, crashes and plateaus of population growth. During this long evolutionary development, many varieties of humans have risen to prominence then completely disappeared due to competition from a better adapted group.

MA: There is nothing wrong with the word variety but you might be better served to use the term groups.

J: Point taken. These surges in population growth by one or more groups are described, by you, as waves. I am assuming you are drawing that term from something like the sine wave

MA: Of course.

J: There have been large waves like the one out of Africa, the one across the Bering Strait and the expansion of the Old World into the new.

But there have been lots of smaller waves within those events - like Clovis Man and others.

MA: James you are a very bright student.

J: Thank you MA, it all came together for me last night.

J: Let's see - the current wave started after the Black Death and the migration to the New World. That wave (which you and I have been calling the First Wave) rolled across the planet and finally peaked in the early 60’s.

J: From that time on the rate of increase in the total number of humans has been slowing.

J: However, there are cross currents within that decrease in rate - as there are with many other species.

J: I also understand that there are very distinguishable traits associated with what is called an “r-selected” species, such as early maturity, a large number of offspring, limited or no parental long term investment in these offspring, and that this behavior normally leads to a rapid expansion of that species and a sudden collapse in their numbers.

There are also distinguishable traits associated with what is called a “k-selected” species, such as late maturation, few offspring and a large investiture in those offspring, and that this behavior typically leads this group to fully occupy the habitat, at that point their numbers level off and arrive at some type of balance with their environment.

MA: That is pretty close.

[James Oscar]

MA: There is one caveat that I should add. In old school Biology we would normally think of any single species as either K or R selected.

The understanding that there are multiple expressions of both these traits within any given species, while not controversial, is new.

Not a large point but one that could be questioned.

J: I understand that, although it is difficult to see how you could not see the different strategies in our species.

MA: Agreed.

[James Oscar]

MA: OK James now that the first wave is modulating, what else.

J: Well, there is now The Second Wave rising out of the developing world. As the developed countries have lower and lower fertility rates, other parts of the world are doing exactly the opposite. I am not sure where the rates are the highest but I would guess Africa.

MA: When you look at just births per woman in her lifetime you come up with Niger at 7.19, Guinea at 7.07 and Afghanistan at 7.07.

But why is that still misleading?

J: Because of infant mortality?

MA: Oh, not just that but life expectancy at birth. While fertility may be very high in Niger the life expectancy at birth is only 40 years old. Africa, as a whole, has a life expectancy of around 54 years, but it obviously varies from area to area.

J: That sounds like exactly what an r-selected group would try to do. In a challenging environment where life is short you try to produce a lot of offspring. Right?

MA: Yes.

J: OK, so we have this Second Wave rising up - or as you say increasing amplitude.

MA: I will make a mathematician out of you yet.

[James Oscar]

MA: Excellent summary James. As you point out due to the sub-replacement fertility of much of the industrialized world - population decline is a real factor.

Japan, for instance, has been in a state of population decline for a number of years. We know this by using our handy little r=n-m formula.

After the 2005 census we discovered for the first time that r was a negative number (meaning that the number of deaths outnumbered the number of births).

But it was to be expected, Japan has the second lowest birth rate in the developed world after only South Korea.

That rate of 1.4 is not enough to sustain a population thus r = less than 0.

And when r = less than 0, you may have a problem. What do you think?

[James Oscar]

J: Well not necessarily. If you are modulating your growth at an optimum level then an r of 0 or slightly less than 0 might be expected.

MA: Yes.

J: The problem, I suppose, is determining whether you are leveling or plunging.

MA: Population decline, or depopulation, can be cyclic or benign but it is sometimes a harbinger of bad times.

Some Japanese towns facing depopulation are offering cash.

Yamatsuri offers parents $4,600 for the birth of a child and $460 a year for 10 years.

The Republic of Singapore offers $3,000 for the first child, $9,000 in cash and savings for the second; and up to $18,000 each for the third and fourth.

Why isn't this option being offered in Europe and other areas with sub-replacement fertility rates, James?

[James Oscar]

J: Because of immigration?

MA: Yes. Were it not for immigration a large number of countries would be facing very serious depopulation issues.

In the past decade the UK population level has been rising as fast as it did at the peak of the post-war baby boom in the early 1960s.

About 45 per cent of last year’s population rise was brought about by immigration and 55 per cent by a greater number of births than deaths.

However the rising birth rate is itself a product of immigration – one in four births last year were to mothers who were born outside Britain.

[James Oscar]

November 26th, 2010
MA’s Study

MA: So as not to beat on this subject any longer, we have the First Wave modulating growth and the Second Wave rushing in to fill the gaps in desirable locations where depopulation is an issue.

This immigration results in a rapid expansion of the new group with large, extended families.

It would seem a balanced response when viewed in this manor, but it is not.

J: Are you talking about the culture conflicts that develop?

Ma: No, culture is like Jello. It is always changing and reshaping itself.

The issue we need to concern ourselves with - is the one of species survival.

[James Oscar]

MA: James our problem, as a species, is that we are facing a Third Wave. It is the factor that makes any extrapolation from the data we have been discussing moot.

The Second Wave rising out of the developing world is being overtaken by the deadly Third Wave - and it is targeted at our very existence.

[James Oscar]

J: You say there is a Third Wave coming. Is this to be in our lifetime?

MA: James, I did not say it was coming - I said it is here. While we discuss very small outbreaks of every exotic disease known, the real killer keeps penetrating our species until it has reached global saturation.

And that saturation of geography and culture is now complete.

The harsh reality that our species is challenged over and over to survive is the subject, the data is extensive and the outcome is in question.

Come back tomorrow afternoon and we will examine this Third Wave and the carnage that is flowing in its wake.

[James Oscar]

January 9, 2011
Carson City, Nevada

Sunday Morning

I looked at the number on my caller ID and did not recognize it - normally I would just let it go to voice mail and screen the caller, but for some reason I answered and was shocked to hear MA.

She had never called me. I don’t even remember when I gave her the number to my personal cell. But it was her.

MA: James how are you? Are you still in town?

J: I am doing well MA. And yes, I am at the Nugget having breakfast.

MA: Would you be able to come over this afternoon for cocktails and snacks?

J: I would love to.

MA: Great, see you at 3:00.

It was a nice day for the high sierras. Not brutally cold or snowing just gray and below freezing. I spent the day doing bachelor chores and reading.

MA looked excellent and in good spirits. Being Sunday, her housekeeper was off and we had the old house to ourselves.

Settling into the chair by the fire, I swished my drink a bit apprehensively and waited for her to join me.

MA: Did you have a nice Christmas?

J: I had an excellent Christmas. Kate and I spent the day together just eating and talking.

MA: That is excellent news. Are you two happy?

J: Well, yes I suppose. We are an odd pair and it is akward at times. But Christmas day was very cozy. If you did not know better you would think we were Ozzie and Harriet.

MA: (Laughing) that is funny. I always hope, somehow, that you and Kate can find peace together.

J: So do I.

MA: I am surprised to find you still in Nevada. I thought you would be back home by now.

J: Well.... It is hard to explain. I seem to it some sort of “time out” mode. Just coasting along.

MA: I notice you stopped writing.

J: Yea, not much lately.

MA: Why do you think that is?

J: I am not sure.