Post Delaware primary contest: Guess the spread of the first polls?

one man's opinion...

[ken5050]

OK, O'Donnell's won the Delaware primary..and the MSM, and many on the conservative side as well, have all but conceded the race. It'll be hard, but it's doable..

We should probably have several polls out byFri-Sat. So, all you amateur political junkies, put on your tin-foil caps and guess what the spread is for the first polls?

[ken5050]

A few thoughts....

There are MORE Independents in Delawar than Republicans..and Indies are fleeing the Dems in droves. So, the pollsters will have to decide how to weigh their samples. Not to mention the problem of trying to measure voter intensity ( on the GOP side)..they'll probably greatly underestimate it..

The GOP kerfuffle the past few weeks has greatly increased her name recognition...made people aware of her, and probably a little easier to get them to look at her.

My take, FWIW..the first polls will be 56-44..I think she'll start out with a higher % than what she got in the 2008 Senate race..

[Grunthor]

Dem by 10 on Friday.....O’Donnell by 5 on election day.

[earlJam]

PPP already has one:

Public Policy Polling reported that Democrat candidate Chris Coons starts out with a 50-34 lead over Christine O’Donnell. Mike Castle would have led Coons by a 45-35 margin.

http://www.newarkpostonline.com/articles/2010/09/15/news/doc4c90ece646895452517482.txt

[dancusa]

“Marcia” Coakley was 30% ahead of Scott Brown in early “polls”.

[RockinRight]

That means 16% are undecided.

She’s going to have a tough road. I’m on the record here as dismissing her chances, but, her chance, if it exists, is in that 16%.

[November 2010]

I’ll trust Rasmussen. PPP is a Dem org, sometimes real, sometimes bogus.

[Gordon Pym]

Dem by 10 on Friday.....O’Donnell by 5 on election day

id you factor in ACORN voter fraud? It will be rampant in this race

[tennmountainman]

DELAWARE CONSERVATIVES 100% MIKE CASTLE 0%

[Grunthor]

Ok, O’Donnell by 2 on election day.

[prplhze2000]

If I was her, I’d be calling up Haley and begging for advice and any help he could give me.

[tennmountainman]

DELAWARE CONSERVATIVES 100% MIKE CASTLE 0%

[B Knotts]

That’s a pre-primary poll.

[KarlInOhio]

I think that poll was taken before the election, therefore you had some Castle Republicans responding strategically "I could never support O'Donnell over Coons. Castle is the only one who can win." Now that the choice is down to just O'Donnell and Coons they have to choose which to support (or sit out and pout). That 16 point margin will be down to 8 within a week and shrink from there.

[mrsmith]

PPP did a good job of distracting simple-minded people from last night’s poll with the one they took last weekend.

[stripes1776]

"Marcia” Coakley was 30% ahead of Scott Brown in early “polls”.

I hope O'Donnell wins. But Brown is not all that conservative. He broke with his fellow Republicans to vote for the recent financial reform legislation. He seems like a nice RINO.

[rushmom]

They need to stress that Coons is a declared Marxist.

[muawiyah]

As long as the public perception is that Cross IS the incumbent, or that he represents the "incumbent power center", if he hasn't cleared 50% yet, then O'Donnell picks up ALL the outstanding percentage she doesn't yet have and wins.

I suspect Cross is viewed as just another one of those guys firmly lodged in Biden's nether orifice.

[freedomwarrior998]

If O’Donnell is going to have a chance, she needs to follow the Bob McDonnell campaign blueprint to the letter. McDonnell did a masterful job, despite the fact that the media desperately tried to “macaca” him with “OH NOEZ, THEZIZ!!!!”

Granted... Virginia and Delaware are not at all alike politically, BUT McDonnell was able to win Fairfax county, (which is quite a bit like Delaware).

[rightwingextremist1776]

My take on this is the more the RINO/establishment/old guard squawk about her the more popular she will become....NOBODY likes the “old” pubbie party and many may be willing to give the “new” pubbie party a chance....

memo to RINOs;

Keep running towards the cliff....you'll make our job a whole lot easier AND save us the ammo.

[SuziQ]

But Brown is not all that conservative. He broke with his fellow Republicans to vote for the recent financial reform legislation. He seems like a nice RINO.

Sadly, that's about the only kind of Republican who CAN be elected, statewide, in MA. Some locations will vote more conservative, but overall, the RINO is the one who wins.