Paaain.
Posted on 08/18/2010 6:19:45 PM PDT by Neoavatara
This has been a page that I have been running and updating for the better part of this year. The page link can be seen here. However, 75 days before Election Day, I thought it might be a good idea to know where we stand in our task of taking the House and Senate.
(Excerpt) Read more at neoavatara.com ...
Paaain.
I like...
I pity the Democrats.
I have a prediction for 2012: President Palin.
This has been a page that I have been running and updating for the better part of this year. The page link can be seen here. However, 75 days before Election Day, I thought it might be a good idea to know where we stand in our task of taking the House and Senate.
Senate
Arkansas - Blanche Lincoln is in serious trouble, even after winning the nomination…I predict she will lose huge. A PPP polls shows her trailing Rep. John Boozman (R) 56-33. Republicans looke good.
PREDICTION: Republican pickup.
California - Carly Fiorina…leads? Really? Don’t wake me up if this is a dream.
But in a recent poll, Fiorina leads Barbara Boxer by 5 points.
My response is the same as with Scott Brown…I will believe it when I see it. But dreams sometimes do happen; again, see Scott Brown.
PREDICTION: Democrat Hold, but Tossup status looms.
Colorado - Buck (R) now leads Bennet by 5 points according to Rasmussen. Democrats, especially Obama, were cheering Bennet’s victory this week…they may not be cheering in November.
PREDICTION: Republican pickup.
Connecticut - Attorney General Blumenthal likely will win, largely because Democrats could care less if a potato sack was running. The election has tightened against Republican Linda McMahon, but still…this is Connecticut.
PREDICTION: Democrat hold.
Delaware - Former Republican Gov. Michael Castle is popular, and has won statewide office. This is now ahttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/de/delaware_senate_castle_vs_coons-1300.html
#mce_temp_url#red state. Castle leads presumptive Dem nominee Chris Coons 56%-27% in a recent Rasmussen poll.
PREDICTION: Republican Pickup.
Florida - Charlie Crist is now falling behind Marco Rubio in many polls, while Rubio leads by 5 in Rasmussen. Additionally, Crist is almost out of money, Meek appears to be on his way to winning the Democrat nomination and consolidating the leftist vote…and Rubio just raised $7 million in the last quarter. And Crist, in his genius, tied his wagon to…the Obama economic plan. I still have faith that Floridians are smarter than that.
PREDICTION: Republican hold.
Illinois - Giannoulias is tied with Kirk…but neither candidate seems to want to win this election. Both are pretty inept. Each are running at 40%, which means that this is going to be a turnout election. Fingers crossed.
PREDICTION: True tossup…I will wildly predict a Republican pickup today.
Indiana - Indiana Congressman Brad Ellsworth (D) is going to have a tough time getting that promotion to the Senate, if pollster Scott Rasmussen is to be believed. In a poll taken a day before Ellsworth declared his support for the President’s health care plan, Rasmussen Reports found that former Senator Dan Coats led Ellsworth 49%-34%, while former Congressman John Hostettler, whom Ellsworth defeated in 2006, led him 50%-32%.
PREDICTION: Republican Pickup.
Kentucky – Rand Paul is now tied with Jack Conway. But with the election winds blowing, this will go Republican.
PREDICTION: Republican hold.
Massachusetts - Scott Brown win in January.
PREDICTION: Republican Pickup!
Missouri - Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Roy Blunt remain locked in a tight race, but Blunt is slowly pulling ahead, up 7 points in the most recent Rasmussen poll. Carnahan is trying to bring everyone possible to the state to help, but there is really no cavalry on the way.
PREDICTION: Republican hold, but close.
Nevada - Harry Reid is in the race of his life. Sharron Angle, the Tea Party candidate, has made it close…but if she plays this smart, she should be able to pull it out.
PREDICTION: Republican Pickup.
New Hampshire - Republican Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Paul Hodes by 13 points in the most recent look at New Hampshire’s 2010 race for the U.S. Senate. Judd Gregg’s retirement likely won’t hurt at all.
PREDICTION: Republican hold.
New York - Schumer runs for re-election…and is remarkably polling at 51%. Gillebrand is running against a bunch of nobodies. This is just sad.
PREDICTION: Democrat holds.
North Dakota - Three-term Senator Byron Dorgan trailed Governor John Hoeven by a 22 points, 58%-36%. Thus, he decided to retire…and Hoeven is almost definite to win.
PREDICTION: Republican Pickup.
Ohio – My home state is looking good. Rob Portman leads Democrat Lee Fisher by 7 points, and he may be pulling away. Fundraising wise, Portman has a big advantage. I have to believe once Republicans start spending, this state is going to trend rightward. Ohio is traditionally more of a red state than blue, and with Gov. Strickland (D) struggling, I think the Republicans pull out this race.
PREDICTION: Republican hold, but close.
Pennsylvania - Joe Sestak now trails Pat Toomey by 7 points, with the gap widening.
PREDICTION: Republican Pickup.
Washington – A recent poll shows Patty Murray leading Dino Rossi tied. Rossi is the most well known Republican in the state. He is pulling in money, and is making it interesting.
PREDICTOIN: Tossup.
Wisconsin – Republican nominee Ron Johnson has very nearly tied Russ Feingold 47-46, a statistical tie. I still think Feingold pulls it out…but at least this should be on your radar. Again, another turnout election. Johnson now has a viable chance to pull off a major upset.
PREDICTION: Tossup.
Others: Virtually uncontested Republican seats in Arizona, Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, South Dakota and Utah. Virtually uncontested Democratic seats in Hawaii, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Oregon, and Vermont.
House of Representatives
The House is always more difficult, because the issues are largely more local in nature. Small local policy issues can be the difference between life and death for a candidate. Usually, these are not national campaigns, though in recent history the exceptions were 1994 and 2006. But we can make some wild predictions based on past results.
Democrats were in a similar position electorally in 1994. Based on the 1992 results, 79 Democrats were in districts with Republican were favored, while 46 Democrats were in districts that Bush 41 actually carried in 1992. Today, there are 66 Democrats in Republican-leaning districts based on the 2008 results, and 65 based on the 2004 results.
However today, there are virtually no Republicans in vulnerable districts. The only seats the Republicans would have a chance to lose are those vacated by politicians looking for higher office. Thus, they have very few districts to defend.
So what does this all mean? Well, this is what I think:
Senate Prediction: No Democrat pickups. Republican pickups in Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. I think Wisconsin and Washington, right now, look good, with California hanging in the balance but unlikely to break our way. Unless the winds change dramatically, Senate takeover, which looked like a pipe dream, is barely within reach.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Republican +10.
House Prediction: This is much harder. Republicans had a similar political landscape in 1994, and picked up 54 seats. They also at the time had true leadership, something that seems to be lacking today. However, the Democrats had a less opportunistic political environment in 2006, and took 31 seats. So, I think somewhere in the middle is about right. However, with ever increasing Democrat retirements, I think taking back the House (which I in my original post thought was a dream, and nothing more) is a possible, albeit difficult, reality.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Republican +55, a large swing toward Republicans over the past few months.
If they take over then they need to start impeaching the Imam on day one.
Go Sarah.
10 Senate
55 House
House gains could be a little higher...perhaps...anything is possible
“I pity the Democrats.”
No, Mr. T never said that! What he said was, “I pity the fool...”
Oh, wait...never mind!
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