Not sure I agree. Presidential elections aren't really "national" elections per se, even though the MSM seems to think it is. Keep in mind there were seven states that Obama won in 08 that Bush won in 00 and 04. (NV, CO, IN, OH, VA, NC, and FL). Unless something really strange happens, there's where the Presidency will be won or lost. Can Palin win those states? I could be wrong, but I think it's certainly possible.
Agreed. Also keep in mind that many red or red-leaning states could be picking up electoral votes because of the 2010 Census. I believe Texas and SC are picking up a few. Some of the blue states could be losing electoral votes (MI, PA) because of depopulation. The math there alone, could also be a boost for the GOP in the 2012 election.