[GonzoGOP]

That I guess is a big difference from CW1.

Not as big as you might think. Don't forget that there was no West Virginia prior to the Civil War. And East Tennessee would probably have broken away as well except that the Federal armies had to march through Western Tennessee to get there. There were Counties in the South that the Confederates were never able to feel fully secure in.

In the North it was even worse. Southern Illinois was absolutely hostile to the Feds. Likewise New York city had riots over the draft that rivaled full scale battles.

In CW I it was economic/cultural links. If you were a West Virginia miner and sold Coal to the Northern industries for a living you probably weren't too eager to fight for some tidewater plantation owner. If you were an Irish factory in New York worker barely surviving on your pay you didn't want a bunch of free black men driving down the wage scale.

[agere_contra]

Fair point: I thought I might be on shaky ground when I said it.

I still think Arizona will be the focal point, and the rest of the CONUS will be quiet - except for those parts of CA which rely on Arizonan energy and water.