Posted on 07/09/2010 5:10:03 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
Sarah Palin cranked up her 2012 presidential campaign another notch today, with the release of a campaign video aimed directly at women. The basic math is simple. If she gets half of the female primary voters and caucus attenders to support her, then she standing starts at roughly 25% of the total vote. Throw in a third of the male vote and she's at roughly 40%. Forty percent wins the Iowa caucuses, handily.
Which then sets up New Hampshire as the place where the not-Sarah candidate emerges. In all likelihood, that will be former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who finished second in NH in 2008 and who will spend whatever it takes to win there in 2012.
Assuming that the race is then reduced to Palin and Romney, the next critical state primary is South Carolina. At that point, I don't think the specifics really matter. The fact is that the Republican Party of 2012 is not going to nominate a Mormon as its standard bearer. And the more important fact is that the base of the Republican Party doesn't just favor Sarah Palin, they love her. She is their standard bearer. And they will not -- this time around -- be denied.
As the Republican avalanche of 2010 builds -- and I saw a poll the other day of a Democratic-leaning state Senate district on Long Island where the "right track" (8%)/"wrong direction" (83%) was unlike anything I had ever seen -- Palin has smartly positioned herself as the champion of the conservative counter-revolution. By December, she will almost certainly be the de facto front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination.
By the time the Establishment GOP wakes up to this reality, it may be too late for them to do anything about it. Their view of Palin is that she's useful to the party because she can help keep "the Tea Party types inside the tent." And maybe she can serve coffee while she's at it. Palin's view is that (1) "the Tea Party types" are the party, (2) she is their standard bearer and (3) anyone who thinks "the Tea Party types" are there to lick envelopes and knock on doors should think again. They're there, she asserts, to take back their party and to take back their country.
"She's too stupid" is what the Establishment GOP really thinks about Sarah Palin. "Good-looking," but a "ditz." This is unfertile ground, since Palin can turn the argument on a dime and say: "They drive the country into bankruptcy, they underwrite Fannie and Freddie, they bail out Goldman Sachs, they fight wars they don't want to win, they say enforcing the immigration laws is silly and they call me stupid! I'll give you a choice: you can have their smarts or my stupidity, which one do you want?" A large number of GOP presidential primary voters will take Palin's "stupidity" in a heartbeat.
What this means is two things: (1) the pressure on former Florida Governor Jeb Bush to run for the GOP presidential nomination will increase as the year moves along, and (2) the likelihood of a strong independent party candidacy increases as Palin's support within the GOP broadens. Oh, and it also means one other thing: President Obama is not doomed.
I didn't stab anyone in the back.
Nor have I publicly declared my support for any potential 2012 presidential candidates other than Sen. DeMint and Rep. McClintock.
Do you have a problem with my picks, or are you just determined to ram FORMER (because she quit her post) Gov. Palin down my throat like the deranged Palin brownshirt and GOP-at-all-costs bot that you are?
Yet she did not request a refund of her PAC's contributions to Murkowski.
Either she doesn't have control of her own PAC and is thus a puppet for other interests or she's naught but a two-faced politician, just like her mentor McCain.
And what are Graham and Hatch running for, again?
Re-election for the offices of Senators from South Carolina and Utah, respectively, in 2014 and 2012, respectively.
That is, unless they drop out prior to their respective primary elections, although that is highly unlikely as most incumbent Republicans believe that conservatives will vote for them no matter how liberal they act or behave while in office.
A point of reality is clear. She quit her responsibilities as Governor because it was going to be difficult. The easier option for her personally was to quit. And she did. Which is fine.
But it is likewise fine, for her to be judged on those actions.
Doesn't change the fact that she contributed to Murkowski's campaign.
Nor is $4,800, the legal combined maximum for primary and general elections, a "nominal" or trivial amount.
790 Tucson
550 Phoenix.
Telling us that Arizona would all but cease to exist, were it not for John McCain.
So basically, she is still campaigning for McCain.
” So basically, she is still campaigning for McCain. “
Correct.
I have to tune in KFI AM Los Angeles on my computer to avoid hearing the ads.
She’s not campaigning the tapes of are being overplayed by McLame. It will come back to bite McLame.
I hope so.
Seriously, you're posting on FR, BS spin doesn't stand a chance here.
Show some respect for your fellow freepers and stick with the ad hominems and drop the fiction.
Unbelievable.
DeMint endorsed and was campaign manager for Skippy Graham in 2008 when Graham was being challenged in a primary by a much more conservative opponent in a Republican primary.
Exactly what part of SarahPAC's $4,800.00 aggregate contribution to Sen. Murkowski's campaign ($2,400.00 each to the primary and general elections) is made up?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2326860/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2328925/posts
Seriously, you're posting on FR, BS spin doesn't stand a chance here.
I'm not spinning anything. I have, however, repeated verifiable, documented facts. You, on the other hand, are attempting to apologize for and defends Palin's support of a known RINO, prior to her flip-flopping to support the aforementioned RINO's primary opponent.
stick with the ad hominems and drop the fiction.
You're the one who's been using ad hominems here (i.e., "Hey Paultard"), not me.
Has DeMint said that he will endorse Graham in 2014?
Bush v. Palin 2012?”
If this is the best we can do...if this is who the GOP and media shoves down our throat....GOD HELP US.
Talking about Sarah donating to Murkowski without mentioning her endorsement of Miller is disingenuous in my book, but to each his own
Very good to see you back, Jeff!
Has DeMint said that he will endorse Graham in 2014?
LOL!
Okay, so if Palin runs in 2012, I'l ask you a similar question, "has Palin said that she will endorse McCain in 2016"?
LOL!
There isn't a dimes worth of difference between the two endorsements.
Was Reagan a sitting Governor when he ran against Carter? No, but he was a former Governor - just like Sarah Palin.
Had Reagan run for the presidency prior to 1980 when he ran against Carter? Why, yes he had. Just like Sarah Palin.
And you may as well drop the "quitter" meme. Only you, the Romneybots, and the Obots are still drinking that debunked swill.
Yeah, yeah, yeah - and Reagan was a dunce, too.
“Show me anywhere at all Mrs Palin’s intellect in writings or policies that comes close to Ronald Reagan’s body of work by 1979.”
What do you know about Ronald Reagan’s “body of work” in 1979? He was 22 points behind Jimmy Carter in the polls and was universally held by the MSM and the naysayers (people of your stripe) to be too old, too conservative, too stupid and too dangerous to be President. He was gaffe prone, as Shirley sets forth in his book:
From Page 252:
“Reagan meanwhile was coming under increasing scrutiny. The gaffe issue was growing. [Reagan]claimed that Vietnam vets did not qualify for the GI bill for benefits, a statement he later had to retract....Several days earlier, CBS had done an extensive report about a claim Reagan had made regarding the size of Alaska’s proven oil reserves...the truth was, however, that the story nailed Reagan on several items showing where he was just plain wrong.”
The CBS correspondent ended his six minute review of Reagan’s gaffes by speculating on Reagan’s intelligence:
“Does it really matter? To some, it’s a sign that Reagan isn’t smart enough for the job he seeks.”
There are plenty of similar excerpts in the book, including questions that were all over the media about Reagan over his age, his unelectability and his recklessness. And there were a number of useful idiots both within and without the GOP who lapped it up. Boy, were they wrong about Reagan! Of course, in addition to the useful idiots were those who were deliberately pushing or exaggerating these issues about him in an effort to derail him. Sort of like....you and your ilk.
My point is: He was reviled in the same terms that Palin is. It is all documented for you in Shirley’s book, since I am sure you were in diapers when it actually happened. I happen to remember it quite well.
You cannot answer with anything more than vague generalities because you know nothing about Reagan other than what your talking points tell you.
Educate yourself. Read a little about Reagan and his campaigns which many of us worked in. I haven’t got time to spoon feed you and your troll compatriots with history you can get at your local library. Grow up a little and then come back and debate me, armed with a few facts.
No. Like when Mitt Romney and Team Romney
attacked Honorable Gov. Palin (and her children) in the weeks
leading up to election 2008, to throw the election
to Obama for (you guessed it) ..... Mitt Romney
The Palmetto Scoop reported:
"The sources said nearly 80 percent of Romney’s former staff was absorbed by McCain and these individuals were responsible for what amounts to a premeditated, last-minute sabotage of Palin."
that Palin would be a serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 or 2016, which made her a threat to another presidential quest by Romney.
"Peeking Out From the McCain Wreckage: Mitt Romney"
"Someone's got to say it: IS MITT ROMNEY RESPONSIBLE FOR OBAMA'S VICTORY?"
"Vanity: Team Romney Sabotaged Palin and Continuing to Do So?"
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