Posted on 07/09/2010 5:10:03 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
Sarah Palin cranked up her 2012 presidential campaign another notch today, with the release of a campaign video aimed directly at women. The basic math is simple. If she gets half of the female primary voters and caucus attenders to support her, then she standing starts at roughly 25% of the total vote. Throw in a third of the male vote and she's at roughly 40%. Forty percent wins the Iowa caucuses, handily.
Which then sets up New Hampshire as the place where the not-Sarah candidate emerges. In all likelihood, that will be former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who finished second in NH in 2008 and who will spend whatever it takes to win there in 2012.
Assuming that the race is then reduced to Palin and Romney, the next critical state primary is South Carolina. At that point, I don't think the specifics really matter. The fact is that the Republican Party of 2012 is not going to nominate a Mormon as its standard bearer. And the more important fact is that the base of the Republican Party doesn't just favor Sarah Palin, they love her. She is their standard bearer. And they will not -- this time around -- be denied.
As the Republican avalanche of 2010 builds -- and I saw a poll the other day of a Democratic-leaning state Senate district on Long Island where the "right track" (8%)/"wrong direction" (83%) was unlike anything I had ever seen -- Palin has smartly positioned herself as the champion of the conservative counter-revolution. By December, she will almost certainly be the de facto front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination.
By the time the Establishment GOP wakes up to this reality, it may be too late for them to do anything about it. Their view of Palin is that she's useful to the party because she can help keep "the Tea Party types inside the tent." And maybe she can serve coffee while she's at it. Palin's view is that (1) "the Tea Party types" are the party, (2) she is their standard bearer and (3) anyone who thinks "the Tea Party types" are there to lick envelopes and knock on doors should think again. They're there, she asserts, to take back their party and to take back their country.
"She's too stupid" is what the Establishment GOP really thinks about Sarah Palin. "Good-looking," but a "ditz." This is unfertile ground, since Palin can turn the argument on a dime and say: "They drive the country into bankruptcy, they underwrite Fannie and Freddie, they bail out Goldman Sachs, they fight wars they don't want to win, they say enforcing the immigration laws is silly and they call me stupid! I'll give you a choice: you can have their smarts or my stupidity, which one do you want?" A large number of GOP presidential primary voters will take Palin's "stupidity" in a heartbeat.
What this means is two things: (1) the pressure on former Florida Governor Jeb Bush to run for the GOP presidential nomination will increase as the year moves along, and (2) the likelihood of a strong independent party candidacy increases as Palin's support within the GOP broadens. Oh, and it also means one other thing: President Obama is not doomed.
Hush Al B. Quit yer groaning...lol).
To paultards, everyone but ru paul is a rino.
PS- thanks for all the reminders of what a scumsucker Mittens is, I alwais enjoy them.
You don’t have to hate the Bushes with the white-hot heat of a thousand suns to think...way the hell too soon.
Hey Paultard, try and get your facts straight, she made a nominal contribution to Murkowski then endorsed Miller.
Thanks for the link. Was that the whole interview?
Romneycare finished off Romney. He’s done.
Her non stop campaign for McCain alone finished her for me.
I believe so. I couldn’t listen to it all; the interruptions were too annoying.
I find it strange the only person he did not do that to was Obama.
She did well, only slipped up in one question, and that only because of interruption. I found it interesting he said something like his audience would trust her to build the fence and secure the border. He also addressed her as the de facto president in 2012.
A strange mix from him.
Non stop? She hasn’t actively campaigned for him since her first and only visit, has she? You must mean the radio commercials you said are running in AZ. I’d be extra mad about those too. It’s beyond reprehensible that “he thinks” he needs “her” to help win “his” primary election, but that’s politics McCain style: pull out all the stops and stoop to anything and everything as long as the opponent is a Republican.
In the nad battle Palin, Brewer, Bachman appear to have more than the other potential candidate capons that merely go “cluck cluck”
LOL. Very amusing. You have way with words.
Okay folks close it down and pull the plug as a n00bie has decided "‘nuf said.".
Damn and I enjoyed FR.
A much smaller Germany murdered that many people. A much more populous America could easily deport the 20 to 30 million illegal alien criminals and a very large part of the population is damn sure willing.
I think you imagined a SNL skit, one that never actually happened, where Tina Fey did a non stop campaign for McCain.
” You must mean the radio commercials you said are running in AZ. “
They have now run 700 or 800 times on the 2 conservative talk radio stations here
790 Tucson
550 Phoenix.
Telling us that Arizona would all but cease to exist, were it not for John McCain.
” I think you imagined a SNL skit, one that never actually happened, where Tina Fey did a non stop campaign for McCain.”
And I think you have palpable mental problems.
No he is not. This Nation is much bigger than Obama. We will survive long after his one term is over. Though he loves that many think he is the be all end all or has such powers. He does not. He is Jimmy Carter II and will be thought of as such by history within several decades after he is out of office. His biggest footnote will be the obvious, that he was the first black POTUS.
Great book on it’s own, but it’s amazing how you’ll have Sarah going through your head as you read it.
Democracy is the tyranny of the majority.
Republicans ruling instead of governing are just as bad as their Democrat counterparts.
EVEN THE RINO Republicans held together against it, didn’t they?
So what?
That still doesn't excuse their previous (and heavily documented) bad behavior when they were "rul[ing]" in the majority.
Mrs. Palin could not take the heat of being Governor. Please.
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