Posted on 06/15/2010 9:37:36 PM PDT by CWW
What BP and the Government Are Not Telling Us:
The Deepwater Horizon Well Is Going to Collapse Soon Resulting in an Uncontrollable Oilcano.
The recent failure of the Top Kill ("mud kill") attempt revealed that the well bore structure is compromised "Down hole", i.e., the well pipes below the sea floor are broken and leaking. That's why the Top Kill procedure did not work.
What does this mean?
It means they will never cap the gusher after the wellhead. They cannot. That sort of leak is one of the most dangerous and potentially damaging kinds of leak there could be. It is also inaccessible which compounds our problems. There is no way to stop that leak from above. All they can do is relieve the pressure on it by opening it up (like a opening up a garden hose nozzle to slow a leak in the line). This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 ton.
What is likely to happen now?
Well...none of what is likely to happen is good. In fact, it's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.
Eventually, even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the blow out preventer will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the blow out preventer, or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly, it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.
All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of" -- The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. The very least damaging outcome, as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out a minimum of 150,000 barrels a day (about 6.75 million gallons) of raw oil or more.
All the collection efforts that have captured oil will be erased in short order. The magnitude of this disaster will increase exponentially by the time we can do anything to halt it and our odds of actually even being able to halt it will go down.
The magnitude and impact of this disaster will eclipse anything we have known in our life times if the worst or even near worst happens.
We are seeing the puny forces of man vs. the awesome forces of nature. We are going to need some luck and a lot of effort to win...and if nature decides we ought to lose, we will.
BP and Obama need to level with the Country!!
“BP and Obama need to level with the Country!!”
They won’t.
bflr
This strikes me as idle speculation. Seem more likely that it didn't work because the pressure was just too great and kept ejecting the mud, which would argue against this theory presented as fact.
Obama, level with the country?
Yeah... that’ll be the day.
NUKE IT!
These seem to be the same comments that were posted on The Oil Drum a couple of days ago. Very scary indeed.
http://current.com/technology/92411764_leaked-report-government-fears-deepwater-horizon-well-could-become-unchecked-gusher-al-com.htm
No, it is pretty much the official position. The volume of mud (benite, etc.) injected was far greater than what was ejected through the BOP. It disappeared into the formation through the broken casings.
Yea why mess with oil contamination when you can have radioactive fallout drifting around the ocean.
Did they not understand the risks before drilling so deep?
Did they not understand that the technology for controlling this may not be adequate at those well pressures?
Did they not understand what the pressures would or could be at that depth?
Gouget said the loss of a wellhead is totally unprecedented.
"How bad it could get from that, you will have a tremendous volume of oil that is going to be offgassing on the coast. Depending on how much wind is there, and how those gases build up, that's a significant health concern," he said.
this has been debunked over on The Oil Drum. The situation is bad enough without getting our bebers stuned.
I spent 25 years in the oil and gas business. This is a pretty accurate assessment of the situation. It is potentially much more catostrophic than the public is being made to believe. At this point the remaining hope is the relief wells - and if those don’t work, BP better be poking holes all over the area to produce the oil and reduce the pressure and flow volumes.....red
“The second angel blew his trumpet, and something like a great mountain, burning with fire, was thrown into the sea. A third of the sea became blood, a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed.”
Someone forgot to mention the relief wells, which would give them the ability to control the well, casing or no. Of course, such thoughts sure do foul up a good apocalyptic rant.
OK, the AP article is from early May and talks about the rate being more than the government estimate of 1-5,000 barrels per day.
We KNOW the rate is more like 50,000 barrels and BP is catching about 15,000 of that they hope to catch 90% this month.
So the riser leaks are unrelated to the total blowout leaking millions of barrels scenario.
IMHO the article posted above is largely BS, the relief wells are designed to kill the well far below the rock fissures discussed in the article.
Must not have followed the destruction of Kuwait's oilfields when the Iraqis left. Of course, we know those wells are all still burning away...NOT!
Hope you/\’re right. BTW — this isn’t my rant.
God help us!
Between that inept fool in The White House, and this disaster, it feels like America is dying.
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