The Have-nots are dependant on the Haves for money, and the Goverment depends on the Have-nots for votes. Therefore, the Goverment will never let the Haves leave peacefully.
This was seen in the Civil War. The northern states depended on the southern argri-business. So, they could not let them just leave over state's rights. The issue of slavery, which needed to be addressed, was not attached to the CW until after it had begun.
I agree with your analysis. However, there are plenty of “Haves” in NY and CA for them to continue to extort.
Let the rest of us (Mountains and the South) seperate.
This is not hopeless.
Study what Quebec did in Canada for many years - just the threat of separation can used to extract an endless stream of concessions! Especially when the non-productive Blue states will be desperate for the Red states’ cash, the bribes should be easy.
And then in the end, you can still separate, but you need those years of preparing the public’s expectations first.