FReep mail me if you want on/off the list.
Last post from PPP.
Posted on 01/17/2010 8:05:10 PM PST by Jet Jaguar
Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 51-46 in our final Massachusetts Senate poll, an advantage that is within the margin of error for the poll.
Over the last week Brown has continued his dominance with independents and increased his ability to win over Obama voters as Coakley's favorability numbers have declined into negative territory. At the same time Democratic leaning voters have started to take more interest in the election, a trend that if it continues in the final 36 hours of the campaign could put her over the finish line.
Here's what we found:
-Brown is up 64-32 with independents and is winning 20% of the vote from people who supported Barack Obama in 2008 while Coakley is getting just 4% of the McCain vote.
-Brown's voters continue to be much more enthusiastic than Coakley's. 80% of his say they're 'very excited' about voting Tuesday while only 60% of hers express that sentiment. But the likely electorate now reports having voted for Barack Obama by 19 points, up from 16 a week ago, and a much smaller drop from his 26 point victory in the state than was seen in Virginia.
-Those planning to turn out continue to be skeptical of the Democratic health care plan, saying they oppose it by a 48/40 margin.
-Coakley's favorability dropped from 50% to 44% after a week filled with perceived missteps. Brown's negatives went up a lot but his positives only actually went from 57% to 56%, an indication that attacks against him may have been most effective with voters already planning to support Coakley but ambivalent toward Brown.
-56% of voters in the state think Brown has made a strong case for why he should be elected while just 41% say the same of Coakley. Even among Coakley's supporters only 73% think she's made the argument for herself, while 94% of Brown's supporters think he has.
Full results here POSTED BY TOM JENSEN AT 10:46 PM
FReep mail me if you want on/off the list.
Last post from PPP.
EVERY BODY!!! DRINK TEA IN CELEBRATION!!
All the trends point to a Brown victory somewhere in the 4-6 point range. If he does win by 4-5 points, it will be interesting to see if “Marsha Coakly” actually will concede. My guess is Obama and the dems have instructed her NOT to concede on election night no matter how big she is loosing.
If Brown wins, the next month is going to be a blast watching what happens with the Dem party and health care.
These results may not take into account the rallies today.
A great one for Brown
Not so great for Coakley and Obama
Marsha, Marsha, Marsha!
I'm not sure you can directly compare Percentages of poll respondents to gambling odds and reach a meaningful conclusion.
Which is not far off of, but is a little more pessimistic than, the current results from the intrade trading on the predictions for this election. Currently, Intrade has Brown over Coakley 56 to 45.
I'm not sure you can directly compare Percentages of poll respondents to gambling odds and reach a meaningful conclusion.
To put the nutshell into a nutshell, it is a variation on the so-called "wisdom of the crowd" and can frequently be substantially more accurate than most traditional prediction methods.
Just took a look at the numbers again, and there's been some heavy trading - my guess is, the pro-Coakley events today really stunk up the place - now it's Coakley 35, Brown 65.2.
Still, I remain convinced that the Democrats will do as Ed Schultz said - steal the election by any means possible - and that Coakley will be certified as the "winner" by the Mass. Sec'y of State before midnight on Tuesday, and will be sworn in and officially seated by Reid before sunup on Wednesday.
Marcia, Marcia, Marcia!
Ping.
I’m just saying you can’t compare the poll numbers to betting line numbers (e.g. 55%-45% vs. a similar spread of numbers on a betting line.) They measure completely different things. A 52-48 spread in a poll may result in a 52-48 line. But it doesn’t follow that a 70%-30$ poll spread results in a 70-30 line. It would be more like a 95-5 line. It’s not a linear relationship.
Keep praying ... this Miracle in Massachusetts
really happens, for the sale of our precious
America.
Intrade:
Coakley 38.9
Brown 70.
Let them try to Al Franken the election. It will incite more opposition.
have heard many people tell me that they want to block the O agenda, so they’re voting for Brown. They are dems. :)
This particular poll asked a lot of questions and there are a lot of crosstabs available.
Key question is Dems, Reps, Inds
Here its D39/R17/I44
The ratio of Dems to Reps is not so low as to be clearly biased toward the Reps. That’s a good thing.
Interesting tidbits from the crosstabs.
Overall, 25% say yes to whether they think ACORN will try to steal the election. That includes 15% of people who voted for Obama, 12% of the Liberals,
49% of the moderates think Brown is a moderate
34% of the moderates think Coakley is a moderate
Men and women feel the same way about the Congressional GOP
Men feel the same about the Congressional GOP and Dems
Women feel favorable toward Dems by 12%.
Men are more likely than women to think ACORN will try to steal the election by 7%.
Independents - Brown64 Coakley32
Very Excited - R89 I68 D63
(now, looking at this particular number, and looking at
D39/R17/I44, I’d say that that R17 a little bit low, and/or the D39 is a little bit high. R18/D38? R19/D37? might turn out to be more accurate on Tuesday.
Eeyore.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.