Ok, Mesta, here’s my take on the PA races, and my assessment of who’s a RINO, and whether or not the conservative has a chance to win. If you are looking for good information on PA races, check out www.pa2010.com.
Senate: Arlen Specter is up for re-election. His opponent is Pat Toomey, Club for Growth President. I heartily endorse Toomey as a solid conservative, and think he has a 60-40 chance of finally knocking off Specter. Toomey ran against Specter as an unknown GOP Congressman in 2004, and lost 51-49, after President Bush and Santorum backed Specter at the 11th hour, which really hurt Toomey. Specter will have the hardcore Communists supporting him, but many independents see what we’ve know all along; he’s a political opportunist who switched parties to benefit himself, and a Grade A scumbag. If you want to make a $$$ contribution, Toomey would be a good candidate to back, as Specter has $12 million in the bank, and will be able to raise 2-3 times that by November.
House: My district is PA-6 which includes parts of Berks, Chester, and Montgomery County. Jim Gerlach (R) is the incumbent. Gerlach is a RINO, probably because the district has been turning more and more blue as the leftists from Philadelphia move into the area. The district went for Obama 58-41 in 2008, although I do not think it is that blue. I believe the result was more a function of a weak McCain at the top of the ticket.
Gerlach voted for the bailout, for cash-for-clunkers, for SCHIP. He faithfully votes against drilling in ANWR. He has backed the party line against Obama, so far. He was running for governor, but decided he couldn’t win, so decided to run for re-election to Congress. His only competition in the primary appears to be a guy named Steve Welch, who has not yet dropped out of the race.
Welch is a young, rich businessman, who appears to want to get into politics. He could challenge Gerlach in the primary, because he’s rich, but I think he’s a RINO. He has a number of contributors to his campaign who have given to Democratic candidates like Obama, Specter, etc. He himself gave $300 to Joe Sestak a few years ago, and Welch was registered as a Democratic as late as this time last year. So, I would have to say he’s a RINO, and not worthy of support.
Gerlach will likely face Doug Pike in November, which should be another close race. Pike is your standard Communist, but Gerlach must be favored in a GOP year. I would not support Gerlach with $$$; I have not decided if I will vote for him or not.
If you are looking for a good candidate to support with $$$, check out Lou Barletta in PA-11 (which is Hazleton, Wilkes-Barre, some Scranton, I think), who will be taking on Paul Kanjorski in November. Barletta will win the primary easily. Barletta was the Mayor of Hazleton, and gained fame by taking a stand against illegal immigration, when no one else would. He ran against Kanjorski in 2008, and lost by 2-3 points. He should be favored to win the rematch in a GOP year, but he will need money to beat the incumbent Kanjorski, who is a thorough Commie leftist, who votes the Pelosi line.
Finally, in PA-17, which is Pottsville, Leesport, Schuylkill Haven, etc., we have Blue Dog Tim Holden as the incumbent. State Senator Dave Argall is likely to win the GOP primary. I don’t know the first thing about Argall. I do know Holden will be difficult to beat. He’s one of these protected Democrats, who has been able to vote against Obamacare, against the Stimulus, against Cap and Tax. Of course, if Nancy Pelosi needed his vote, he would have voted the Communist line. No one has ever seriously challenged Holden since he beat longtime GOP Congressman George Gekas in 2002, and I highly doubt State Sen Argall will beat him either.
Governor: Tom Corbett is the overwhelming favorite in the GOP primary. He is the incumbent Attorney General. I know nearly nothing about where he stands on the issues, as he’s never had to vote on anything as an AG. I do know he’s being backed heavily by the RINO GOP establishment in PA. His opponent is State Rep. Sam Rohrer, who just happens to be my State Rep. Rohrer is a true conservative, with impeccable conservative credentials. Rohrer is unknown in 7/8 of the State, though, and will have a tough time raising $$$ to challenge the annointed Corbett. Rohrer might be worth kicking $20 or so. Luckily for him, the election isn’t until May 18, so he still has some time to get known. Still, he’s a huge underdog.
That’s my opinion, maybe others know more about it than I do. Thanks for doing this Mesta, I think it’s important that we funnel our $$$ to worthy conservatives, and not to the RNC.