Could Republicans win back the Senate in 2010?

Telegraph Blogs (U.K.) ^ | January 6, 2010 | Toby Harnden

[Schnucki]

A few months ago, anyone suggesting that Republicans might be able to retake the Senate – where they currently have 40 seats compared to the Democrats’ 58 plus two Independents who caucus with Barack Obama’s party – would have been liable to be certified insane.

But with the shock decision of the Senator Byron Dorgan, Democrat of North Dakota, it’s beginning to go from impossible to long shot. Some 34 seats are up for grabs, 18 Republican and 16 Democratic. The GOP needs to pick up 11 seats to secure a majority.

I certainly wouldn’t bet the farm (or even an outbuilding) on a GOP win that gives it 50 seats - far from it. Obama’s poll fortunes would have to continue to slump and absolutely everything would have to go right for Republicans. But just remember that in 2002 just about everything went right Senatewise for the GOP and in 2008 a similar thing happened for Democrats. Here’s how it could happen for the GOP this time around:

Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington are safe Democratic seats. Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota and Utah are safe GOP seats.

Connecticut (D) – Chris Dodd is highly vulnerable. Likely GOP pick-up. BREAKING NEWS UPDATE 12.05am EST Blimey, Dodd is to announce he won’t seek re-election. Actually, this will give the Dems a much better chance of keeping the seat. Moves it from likely to possible GOP pick-up, I’d say.

Arkansas (D) – Went heavily against Obama in 2008 and Blanche Lincoln has her vote for health-care reform to worry about. Likely GOP pick-up.

North Dakota (D) – Byron Dorgan looks likely to hold his seat but North Dakota is a Republican state and the GOP will fancy its chances,

[FastCoyote]

People should know that there are things happening on the Harry Reid front that could not just beat him, but potentially crush him. The goal would be to drive down Dem voters nationwide.

[wny]

the way it looks now:

sure thing: ND

highly probable: DE, NV

probable: PA,

very possible: LA, CO

possible with good candidate: NY, CT

very long shot: IL, MA

no way in hell: CA

[Non-Sequitur]

Don’t automatically count on the GOP retaining Bond’s Missouri seat. Carnahan will be the Democratic candidate and GOP is in for a cat fight between Blunt and Steelman, with Hulshof possibly joining the mix. It’s going to be a close election under any circumstances. If the GOP loses then it’s one more seat they have to pick up elsewhere.

[nhwingut]

How is Indiana a “safe Democrat” seat? This is a red state and Bayh voted for Obamacare.

Any hoosiers out there with thoughts...

[byteback]

Boxer isn't a popular as one might think in CA. Certainly in the Bay area and Hollywierd but statewide she's always been around 50%. The GOP just runs weak, underfunded candidates. Unfortunately the candidate who could win would be labeled a RINO by half the folks here but this isn't Texas. We at least can get a pro business, fiscal conservative elected but socially will be pretty liberal.

Otherwise I agree with the rest. Tom DeLay just said he sees 5-7 seats.

[onyx]

You have “LA as very possible” - who's running against Mary?

OTOH, you have “No way in hell for Boxer” - but she is quite vulnerable this year.

[wny]

Don’t know, in the current political environment it is very possible, but of course it all depends on the candidate. Here in NY for instance, Guiliani would beat Gillebrand making NY ‘very possible’. But he’s not running. That makes NY a toss-up at best if it’s going to be King or Pataki. In CA, Boxer wins pure and simple.