Posted on 01/04/2010 3:38:55 PM PST by American Dream 246
There has been a notable absence of public polling in the January 19 special election in Massachusetts to fill Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat. That will begin to change tomorrow, when Scott Rasmussen releases the results of a poll that he's conducting tonight.
But THE WEEKLY STANDARD has obtained the results of a private poll conducted last week by a reputable non-partisan firm. In that survey, Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley led Republican state senator Scott Brown in the ballot test by 50% to 39%--not bad for Brown in a state Obama carried by 23 points. More interesting, perhaps, is that while Coakley's favorable/unfavorable rating was 61% to 32%, Brown's was 56% to 26%--in other words, they were virtually identical at +29/30. That suggests a potentially very competitive race: If Brown can make his case against another Democratic vote in the U.S. Senate, or against rewarding a member of unpopular governor Deval Patrick’s administration, some voters who currently prefer Coakley might be open to voting for Brown, since they view him favorably as well.
THE WEEKLY STANDARD has also learned that an earlier poll, done in mid-December by another firm for another client, had similar results in the ballot test--but that the poll also found that the race tightened significantly, down to a low single digits margin for Coakley, among those judged most likely to vote. Furthermore, a careful analysis by Sean Trende shows, that if one assumes a swing against the Democrats like that in New Jersey and Virginia two months ago, the race could become very close.
Of course, Massachusetts is a tough state for a Republican to win. But anecdotally, the enthusiasm and momentum seems on Brown’s side, as Jim Geraghty describes in his post titled "Anecdotes for Cheer, Data for Gloom." The anecdotes include the fact that Coakley is hiding from the media and avoiding one-and-one debates--to the disgust of the Boston Globe!, and that there are lots of reports of a surge in Republican enthusiasm. And if Curt Schilling is for Brown, who can rule him out?
Hello Admin/moderator, would that be allowed to go in breaking please? Thanks :-)
And Rasmussen’s poll will be of likely voters, will it not?
Meanwhile, Newt and Boehner are nowhere to be found and Michael Steele is out supplementing his income making speeches.
Won’t happen. The most corrupt state in the Union. Scott is a RINO but basically a good guy. Coakley owns the Unions and The Dem Machine.
If you want to help change the tide
brownforussenate.com
Used to live there. I think NJ, RI, probably LA and at least parts of IL are ahead of ‘em.
Pray for SNOW on election day!
If Brown is somehow in striking distance, the implications will be like a thunderclap.
Maybe Sarah will show support, she may be doing her homework on Scott Brown. The RNC should hacve been on this a while ago. I’ll give McCain credit for support, hope he threw some $$$ towards this fight. A win here would be huge.
I’m not sure Palin would help him. Probably better for Palin to keep low profile on this. It is one thing to endorse Rubio in FL, but MA is probably the most hostile state for Palin.
Maybe Sarah will show support, she may be doing her homework on Scott Brown. The RNC should hacve been on this a while ago. I’ll give McCain credit for support, hope he threw some $$$ towards this fight. A win here would be huge.
McQuueg already muddied the ugly pond. A sign of doom!
There’s something in the water in Mass. that makes people idiots.
I received a call from the RNC tonight. I told them thanks, but I’m doing what they should be doing - supporting Scott Brown.
With Brown coming out pro-waterboarding (he’s a JAG lawyer in the National Guard, so he has credibility) of the Christmas bomber, I think they are running this as a turnout election. Meaning, he’s hoping that Republicans and Independents will crawl over broken glass and that Democrats will be dispirited.
They’re also counting on the fact that Coakley is unlikeable and Kennedy will siphon off some of the vote from her.
We’ll see, but with this strategy, Palin would be a help. Certainly she would bring in money. But my guess is that she would ask them if they want her endorsement. So either (1) she isn’t endorsing for some reason (2) they don’t want her endorsement in liberal MA or (3) they are waiting to give it better timing.
My hope is that the Dims in MA will see a “Kennedy” on the ballot and think it’s one of them and split the Dim vote. What was Eddie Murphy’s slogan “a name you know”?
Here’s a recent poll, and it’s better than I had expected.
I would’ve hoped that Kennedy would’ve tried to take votes from Coakley. If he was trying to do that, I’d recommend that people make sure there are lots of Kennedy signs up all over the D areas on election day. But he isn’t, he’s calling Brown a RINO in debates.
A blizzard would be nice.
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