Posted on 12/13/2009 11:28:53 PM PST by meadsjn
SARAH PALIN'S CERTAIN PATH TO ELECTION IN 2012
The McCain/Palin team were faced with almost every possible impediment to victory.Number one,and perhaps the key factor,was a media hugely,in fact obsessively in the can for Obama.Further,rather than as a corollary simply ignoring the GOP team the media embarked on a campaign of vilification perhaps unprecedented in recent electoral history-to the level in fact that any semblance of balance was destroyed.
Secondly,the Republican team were shouldered with the burden of an extremely unpopular President,so unpopular that mechanisms were found to keep both Bush and Cheney from the nominating convention.
Thirdly,and perhaps the final straw,the campaign was hit when the economy succumbed to a massive financial panic with the ensuing need for immediate,massive and unpopular emergency measures which,whatever their validity,pleased no one.
Of course there were things done during the campaign which might have been done better (as is the case with any campaign) e.g. "suspending" the campaign at the height of the financial crisis,McCain's handling of the bailout and of course his staff's handling of Palin's activities.Also,and something I very much agree with Palin about,the campaign was reticent about raising "legitimate questions" about Obama's past and associations.
However,I do not believe these sundry items,if handled differently,would have made enough of a difference to have changed the eventual outcome-a state or two might have been saved at best.
Thus,with a grossly biased media supporting a candidate of unique background with a message of hope and change,a highly unpopular administration,an economic crisis of unprecedented proportions since 1929 and the usual campaign mishaps the fact that McCain/Palin won 22 states with 173 electoral votes of the 270 required to be elected (popular vote totals do not have final bearing on who wins)the GOP team did remarkably well.So well that a solid basis for victory in 2012 has been put in place.
The following two states were lost by under 1%.North Carolina 15 electoral votes lost by 0.4% and Indiana 11 EV 0.9%. Nebraska 1 EV 1.2% (The GOP won Nebraska's four other EV's). At the next level Florida's 27 EV's were lost by 2.5% and Ohio's 20 by 4.0% and at the highest level for this exercise Virginia's 13 EV's by 6.3% and Colorado's 9 EV's by 8.5%.
All these states were won by Bush in 2004 and only lost in 2008 in the most difficult of electoral circumstances which,with Obama no longer the symbol of hope and change, will not be repeated.It would take just a small movement against the sitting party to return most of these states to their historic place in the red column
Please, tell us who you think is presidential material. What are their principles and what they have accomplished?
If you want to put forth your own secret conservative candidate, here and now is a good place and time to break the news.
No RINOs.
The point is, it is early. I’ll wait to see who else shows an interest. It’s as simple as that. The hysteria I see here on FR actually is somewhat of a turn off to me. It’s like everyone is thinking with raw emotion instead of a reasonable analysis. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, if I support Palin it will be in spite of what I see here on FR and not because of it. It looks to me like her supporters are like teenage girls at a rock concert.
While you’re waiting, why don’t you buy or borrow a copy of “Going Rogue”, and read it? You’ll learn exactly who Sarah is, what her guiding principles are, how they were formed and implemented, and what her vision is for a government that follows the Constitution as the founders intended.
Nothing is certain in elections.
I would if I thought there was anything new to learn but I don’t think there is the likelihood there is anything new. I think I do understand her and she’s on my possibility list but that’s it for now. I need to wait to see who else runs. Then I’ll decide.
Or as we Catholics say, "Go in as a Pope, come out as a Cardinal."
Sarah’s a hero,
0bama’s a zero!
Well, I can see why with people like you on our team. The election is 3 years away and you have already conceded defeat and handed us another 4 years of the Marxist.
Please just get the hell out of the way and let the real Americans go about returning America to it’s former greatness.
In addition, if you find any more pessimistic quitters of your ilk please encourage them to jump overboard too and help us get rid the dead weight.
With all due respect of course ;-)
*sheesh* Who needs enemies and commies with R’s like this?
Despite what Obama, Harry and Nancy do, the sheer grit and determination of the American people will cause the economy to get better in three years. Obama will take credit for it and the race will be close.
If the POTUS election was in 2010, Sarah would easily win. But 2012 is a long way off.
I want her to win, but she should focus on issues that will still show Obama’s weaknesses over the next three years.
Last, no. But she is currently the only conservative with better than no chance of winning.
The fauxservatives currently hiding behind an (R) badge aren’t worth taking a well deserved crap on as far as their chances go.
If Sarah runs, we prosper, if she doesn’t run the odds are in favor of 4 more years of islamomarxist dominion.
On the contrary my friend. Sarah is the only one with the 3 legs necessary to secure the base (Fiscal Conservatism, Social Conservatism, and Strong National Defense/Foreign Policy). Plus she has appeal that will enable her to broaden the base. These thousands of people who waited all night in cold temperatures to see her for 5 seconds will no doubt canvas for her.
The moderates already have buyers remorse. Ever poll indicates this. Once they take a second look at Palin, she will win in a landslide.
Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur!
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