In my opinion, you seem to be forgetting that most boomers have children, often larger than the current 2 kid families, and that many of these adult children could never afford a home and are anxious to inherit their parent’s home. If mom’s home is local, they can move into it. If not, they can rent it out or sell it for the downpayment to buy a home locally.
It seems to me you think that a deceased boomer = vacant home. With all of their children waiting to inherit, I don’t think the glut from the demographic shift will be as dramatic as you seem to think
Look around at your own family, friends and neighbors. Dig a little and I think you will begin to realize how many of the boomers children don’t have homes and will inherit one. That is how I see it.
Interesting perspective, and if that’s what you see, that’s a factor.
But I look around and don’t see anyone who can’t wait to inherit a home or who would really want to move into their parent’s home if they did inherit it. Most have gotten their lives on their own track by the time their last parent’s home becomes vacant.
And I know a couple of people personally who, although there are several children and grandchildren in the boomer’s family, no one wants the boomer’s home, yet they can’t sell it in this market.
In fact, I personally know one family where “mom’s home” is a burden, precisely because they can’t seem to sell it at any price, nor rent it, yet it has taxes,association fees, insurance and upkeep that the kids have to pay.
So I guess it just depends on WHERE you are.
You’re right that a deceased boomer doesn’t necessarily mean a vacant home. But it does mean one more home on the market, either because it’s directly on the market or because a family member moves into it rather than possibly buying another home on the market.
Even if this doesn’t create a “dramatic” glut of houses in and of itself, it certainly adds exponentially to the decade-long glut we are already facing!