Whoa. Sorry for the formatting fart. Here’s what I said in non-brick format:
A couple of other demographic notes that never seem to be accounted for in looking at how the nation’s housing supply is going to trend in the next years:
1. That big population bubble, aka the Baby Boomers, is going to burst over the next 10 years or so. As the boomers start dying off, many will leave homes that, quite literally, no one wants. The family will not want them and they will not be able to be sold. This adds millions more units to supply over the next decade or so, not to mention millions of tons of used stuff (furniture, artwork, dishes, cars, etc.) out there to be disposed of somehow.
2. Young people starting out, and other adult children, are not going to have the financial means (jobs) to start their own households. There will be many more multigenerational households (which is not a bad thing, but which does not sop up housing supply like individual homes does).
3. The recent trend toward having more than one home also will end except for the quite rich. Snowbird homes in Florida, forgetaboutit. Beach houses, no.
4. As the next generation looks at housing, fewer are getting married and actually forming families. Economic hard times will decrease the number of children people have. Single parents, for example, will share McMansion rentals instead of having their own home.
5. Without plentiful jobs, immigration (especially illegal) will slow down. Again, fewer people to use housing inventory
Your points 1 and 2 seem in conflict to me.
If tens of millions of boomers die off and leave homes behind, there will be an even larger glut of home inventory than today, prices have to go much lower, and therefore young people starting out will necessarily be able to afford the homes. It is one or the other. For young people starting out to not be able to afford to own homes would require a lack of a housing glut.
So, which will it be, glut from dead boomers or unaffordable homes for young couples?