I wonder if GoldStandard got banned or merely suspended after the “Sarah Palin Gets Booed” thread he started yesterday. I’ve maintained all along my concern that Rand Paul is too fringy for the general election in KY. The family associations, the supporters, are simply not a part of the mainstream of the GOP (at least not the Conservative mainstream, since a substantial chunk of us regard Ron to be a nutter. I personally never held RP in high regard from the first time I saw him on tv as a teenager in the ‘80s. He was the anti-Reagan and ran against him as such in 1984). The Democrats will be able to exploit the “Paul factor” and denounce him as a fringe element (even considered so by Republicans, as I do). I expect Paul would lose by as much as 10% to Jack Conway, who would then try to pick up Republicans uncomfortable with Rand. Only if Mongiardo is the Dem nominee would Rand have a better shot, since Mongiardo has made himself a real enemy of his running mate, Gov. Beshear (whom I imagine might not be too heartbroken to see him lose the general).
I’ve never proclaimed Trey Grayson as spectacular, and he’s got a Dem background, but so have a number of Republicans, and that alone isn’t enough to dismiss him (I’d be a hypocrite myself, I’m not a lifelong Republican, I converted as a teenager). But Grayson will have 100% party backing for the general (meaning he won’t be left to twist in the wind - something that can’t be said for Paul, because if he gets the nod, the party will turn its attentions elsewhere), he’s seemingly done a good job as Sec of State of KY, he’s won twice (including in ‘07 when he had a toxic candidate at the top of the ticket which could’ve taken him down). I believe Bunning has endorsed him, so he seems like an acceptable choice without the RP baggage.
On the same note, I can't presume Rand Paul will be as flaky as his dad in office. I'm sure they have very similar political beliefs (I probably agree with my dad on 90% of the issues, but there is that 10% where we part ways), but Rand Paul is a different person and his governing style and personality isn't likely to be a carbon copy of dear old dad's wild eye rants.
What DOES alarm me is that Rand Paul has a good chance of losing to a RAT in a November general election but he's become the "front runner" in a big upset now (on paper, Greyson should win overwhemingly in the primary as a popular, two-term statewide official). Looks like Greyson has to seriously retool his campaign and run on a stronger message if he's trailing Rand Paul in fundraising.
If Paul is being coy on social issues and the WOT because he's weak on those issues (e.g., maybe his "libertarian" fan base is demanding the Patriot Act be completely repealed and he has to go along with them), Greyson needs to take advantage of that and make the case to primary voters that he is the stronger conservative.
As of right now I don't have a dog in this fight.
If Rand Paul were the nominee, I’d support him. As for the social issues, it’s very likely that Paul takes a state’s rights position/Feds stay out position, which is consistant with Libertarian philosophy, though it might not be satisfactory to those who are motivated by them.
I don’t know what to think about Rand Paul’s chances in the general election. Normally, I’d be pessimestic. But 2010 will likely be a good Republican year in this part of the country, and both DemocRATS have made avoidable gaffes.