Posted on 10/08/2009 1:15:34 PM PDT by arthurus
Remember the 1990s tech bubble? When it burst, the experts were telling you - you should have been into Blue Chips. After you shifted your money - BANG - the market collapsed with ENRON, WORLDCOM and the others then Sarbanes-Oxley was enacted and the experts declared that you should have diversified and had some money into the "fourth asset class" - real estate.
Many cashed out whatever was left in mutual funds and bought "investment condos" thinking they were going to "flip and buy" which was a strategy that lasted for a bit then they got caught up in the real estate crash. They got wiped out and some cannot fathom how all that upward spiraling equity evaporated into ghost equity
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
Another term for ponzi scheme and manic buying.
Investing for the long term has essentially gone away. It is still done but "day traders" don't trade on matters of actual performance and can tank a company.
The problem is investing in gold has not paid off in 20 years. Essentially no return from 1984-2004.
It shouldn't be viewed as an investment - solely as a defensive hedge.
Yeah, but it’s 2009. It seems that there are periods where the dow is best. And there are periods where gold is best.
The Dow was flat from 1970 - 1980.
Gold went up 20x from 1970 - 1980.
The Dow went up 10x from 1980-2000.
Gold went down 3x from 1980-2000.
The Dow has been flat from 2000-2009.
Gold has gone up 4x from 2000-2009.
If the period we’re in right now is like the 70’s, with Obama = Carter, stagflation, etc., I’d say we have a couple more years of Gold going up, with a dramatic spike up at the end, before it starts going down. When and if Gold hits $5000 and Dow is at 5000, that’s a good time to sell Gold and buy the Dow, unless there’s a real calamity.
The ratio of the Dow to Gold was roughly 1:1 in 1980, today it’s roughly 10:1.
Spam, rice, and beans. I have always wondered why the most useless metal is so valuable. It can’t be eaten and it is not a fuel. It is however the best metal for conducting electricity and corrosion protection, beyond that it is as useful as ... as... Barack Hussein Obama.
When we are reduced to a barter economy, gunpowder, brass, and ammunition will be the new currency.
Spam, rice, and beans. I have always wondered why the most useless metal is so valuable. It can’t be eaten and it is not a fuel. It is however the best metal for conducting electricity and corrosion protection, beyond that it is as useful as ... as... Barack Hussein Obama.
When we are reduced to a barter economy, gunpowder, brass, and ammunition will be the new currency.
>> Gold is a barometer of fear. The price spikes during conflicts. And now, it is spiking because of fears what the Dems might do to the dollar. It shouldn’t be viewed as an investment - solely as a defensive hedge.
If my FR HTML skillz allowed me to reproduce what you said in 24pt font, red, flashing... I would do it.
Gold is NOT an “investment”.
You can cherry pick any intervals you want and reach whatever preferred conclusion you want, I suppose. The notion is that stocks represent ownership of money making ventures, not static reservoirs of wealth. In times of trouble tangible assets like gold coins or jewels can be comforting.
>> It is however the best metal for conducting electricity
Gold isn’t even that! Silver is a better conductor.
(Gold is pretty darn good though.)
I’m buying tobacco seeds.
If its TEOTWAWKI, I know how to make moonshine.
IMHO, its time to invest in farmland as well as food, ammo, etc.
WTF are you talking about? I bought gold at $400 and silver at $6 a decade or so ago.
Stock Analyst telling everyone to get in stocks but not one of them were saying to get out before the big drop. Strange talent how they can see up but not down markets. sarcm
Sure, I can cherry pick any intervals I want. You’re using your interval, based on your experience. 1983 was a good time to buy the Dow. The Dow to Gold ratio was about 3:1 in 1983. It’s about 9:1 or 10:1 now.
There is a good time to buy and a good time to sell the Dow and Gold. It’s easiest to determine what those good times are by looking back at the charts. It’s more difficult to tell when it’s actually happening.
I’d say Gold’s still got a ways to go on the upside, but that’s just a guess. Obama = Carter, Palin = Reagan, it’s 1977. When Gold is in the process of doubling in 3 months, it probably doesn’t mean that we’re in a new era, that Gold will always skyrocket in price, it probably means that it’s a good time to sell, even if you get out before the top, because Gold did sit below its Jan 1980 highs for over 20 years.
I bought tobacco seeds in April when the tax kicked in. I’ve started making sugar wine to develop my fermentation skills.
I’m assuming there will be big new alcohol taxes that I’m not too interested in paying.
Gold is useful in the interim period up to a total SHTF scenario. Growing your own tobacco and making your own alcohol is good if you just don’t want to pay taxes.
I own gold for the same reason I own fire extinguishers and guns.
In the Army I made wine from raisins, Welchs Grape Juice, and sugar from the Mess Hall. Hangover that made you wish you were dead.
Once upon a time I made beer from malt syrup. I made good beer for about 10 cents/bottle.
The Dow has done about as well as keeping your silver quarters in 1964.
The last year they put 90% silver in quarters was 1964. The Dow high was 891 in 1964. It’s currently 9786. A 1964 silver quarter was worth $.25 in 1964. A 1964 silver quarter is worth $3.21 today (with silver at $17.77 an ounce).
A nation rises and falls with the value of its currency. The means of currency is a reflection of the integrity of a nation - the U.S. has lost its because its economy is one based on debt, not actual value. Our government owes trillions in foreign debt. we probably don't have much gold. The American people don't get that and continue to believe that we will pull out of this minor recession.
Rome's darker days always began when it currency became funny money, when the percentage of gold of the coins started to decrease, causing inflation due to the excessive production of worthless coin within the system.
eventually, the dollar will have to be devalued. Maybe 1 new dollar for 3 old ones. Who knows.
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