Obama leads 2012 Foes

If Barack Obama had to stand for reelection today he'd win by as much as he did last year, if not more.

He leads Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Sarah Palin by anywhere from 7-15 points in hypothetical 2012 contests.

Huckabee comes the closest, trailing Obama 48-41. In the six months PPP has run this poll he has been the most competitive Republican every time. Obama's lead has increased from 47-44 over the former Arkansas Governor a month ago.

Mitt Romney does next best, down 48-39. In some ways he looks like a stronger general candidate than a primary one though. He has the best favorability of the GOP quartet with Democrats and independents, but only 50% of Republicans have a positive opinion of him compared to 70% for Mike Huckabee and 69% for Sarah Palin. Will he be able to connect well enough with the GOP base to snag the nomination?

It's safe to say that the country is not ready for another Bush. Only 22% of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of Jeb, with 45% saying it was unfavorable. Even Palin's numbers are better with Democrats and independents than his. He trails Obama 50-37 in a potential contest. It'll be interesting to see if the Bush brand is permanently damaged or if the family can make a comeback in the future, but it seems safe to say that won't be likely in the next few years.

And finally Sarah Palin polls the worst against Obama, and her numbers have been getting progressively worse over the last couple months. Her favorability peaked in our polling at 47/45 in the middle of July, then dropped to 40/49 in August, and now 37/55 in September. Hard to say why she's seeing so much droppage during a period when she's been mostly out of the public eye but it all adds up to her trailing Obama 53-38.

Looking at these numbers it's safe to say that rumors of Barack Obama's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Which is not to say that 2010 won't be a tough election year for Democrats. But that's because Republican voters are more fired up than Democrats and more likely to turn out in a non-Presidential year, not because the electorate as a whole has decided it thinks Republicans would do a better job of running the country.

Bush Curse?

On our national poll this week Barack Obama’s approval rating was the same 52% as last month. The party breakdown was D+5, as opposed to last month’s D+6. So all in all, a very similar universe to the August survey.

Despite that there was an 11 point average drop in the net favorability of Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Sarah Palin on the poll.

That’s pretty weird. But I think I have an idea why. Previously we had asked first about New Gingrich on the poll, then the other three Republicans. But this time Jeb Bush was first up on our poll.

Did respondents being reminded of the Bush brand cause them to rate all the other Republican candidates less favorably? It’s entirely possible. If we include Bush in a poll again I might rotate the response options- this just never occurred to me ahead of time.

Maybe Democrats need to morph Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie’s faces into George W. Bush next month- although it feels to me like it’s time to stop riding the anti-Bush train the truth is that it might be good to remind voters that even if they’re not totally thrilled with the leadership now they like it a lot more than they did a year ago.

The GOP has a Romney-CURSE.

The McCain/Palin ticket was up ++8 pts. days prior to September 18th, 2008.
So the RomneyTeam attacked Gov. Palin and her children to throw Election2008.

"Frum was indeed a critic of Palin, calling her nomination a "huge mistake" during an October 13 Early Show appearance."

David Frum: "Two of our most plausible candidates for president in 2012 are leading Mormons: Mitt Romney and Utah governor Jon Huntsman."

David Frum: "I have a lot of regard for Mitt Romney as a man and politician.
Let me say for the record: If Romney emerges as the Republican nominee, I will support him without qualm."

Late in October, The American Spectator's The Prowler revealed:
"Former Mitt Romney presidential campaign staffers, some of whom are currently working for Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin's bid for the White House,
have been involved in spreading anti-Palin spin to reporters, seeking to diminish her standing after the election.
'Sarah Palin is a lightweight, she won't be the first, not even the third, person people will think of when it comes to 2012,'
says one former Romney aide, now working for McCain-Palin.
'The only serious candidate ready to challenge to lead the Republican Party is Mitt Romney.
He's in charge on November 5th.'"
The Prowler added: "Some former Romney aides were behind the recent leaks to media, including CNN, that Governor Sarah Palin was a 'diva' and was going off message intentionally."
The Romney supporters in the McCain campaign had access to internal polling which indicated well in advance of the November 4 election that McCain had no chance to win.
So they began working to position their man Mitt for a run in 2012. Just two days after the election,The Palmetto Scoop reported:
"One of the first stories to hit the national airwaves was the claim of a major internal strife between close McCain aides and the folks handling his running mate Sarah Palin."
"I’m told by very good sources that this was indeed the case and that a rift had developed, but it was between Palin’s people and the staffers brought on from the failed presidential campaign of former Gov. Mitt Romney, not McCain aides."
"The sources said nearly 80 percent of Romney’s former staff was absorbed by McCain and these individuals were responsible for what amounts to a premeditated, last-minute sabotage of Palin."
These aides loyal to Romney inside the McCain campaign, said The Scoop, reportedly saw that Palin would be a serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 or 2016, which made her a threat to another presidential quest by Romney.
Erick Erickson, who organized Operation Leper, said:
"Here’s what I think: I think there are some staffers on the McCain campaign who seriously screwed up the roll out of Sarah Palin, to which Governor Palin herself objected.
These staffers are now out trying to finish her off thinking, as typical D.C. types do, that if they don’t do it to her, she’ll do it to them. They just never understood who Palin is or what she is about."
"Likewise, I do think there are some staffers and others who expect Mitt Romney to run again in 2012,
they decided McCain could not win, and decided to undermine Sarah Palin and her chances hoping it would ingratiate themselves with Mitt Romney."

"Who's the Palin Leaker from the McCain Campaign? (Mark Wallace, Romney pimp)
National Review Online The publication of a Vanity Fair profile of Sarah Palin
appears to have opened old wounds in the McCain campaign.
... the source of the “Diva” leak was Nicolle Wallace’s husband."

Who benefits most from Sanford meltdown? Californian (that's right) Mitt Romney

"Peeking Out From the McCain Wreckage: Mitt Romney"

"Someone's got to say it: IS MITT ROMNEY RESPONSIBLE FOR OBAMA'S VICTORY?"

"Vanity: Team Romney Sabotaged Palin and Continuing to Do So?"

"Romney Supporters Trashing Palin"

"Romney advisors sniping at Palin?"

Unfortunately for us, Obama hasn’t taken us to the bottom yet. Several months ago they were saying how Obama’s policies were a lot more unfavorable than he himself. Those numbers are starting to reconcile, but the worst of his policies it yet to come. Further, any domestic terror attacks, which are now more a threat than ever, will be an instant 15 point hit on his numbers due to his rightfully perceived ineptitude on matters of national security.

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