...Yay!
Posted on 09/15/2009 2:28:09 PM PDT by Shellybenoit
Well, its over,we got the word today Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announce it, the Recession is "very likely over at this point." Great News Right? Well maybe not. Before you take out the champagne and invite your friends over for a party understand that there is much more to the story.
Bernanke went on to say that we will have an under-performing economy well into next year
"From a technical perspective the recession is very likely over," Bernanke said, cautioning that unemployment is likely to remain high. "It's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time, as many people will still find that their job security and employment status is not what they wish it was. So that's a challenge for us and all policymakers going forward."
The Fact is that some economists are predicting the notorious "L-shaped recovery", in which the economy technically recovers but remains stagnant for years. Others dread the "double-dip recession", where the economy falls, pauses, then falls even further.
(Excerpt) Read more at yidwithlid.blogspot.com ...
Sure, the recession is over. It’s only going to look like a recession, it really won’t be one. Honest.
...Yay!
Headline:
“Recession is Over. Depression Imminent”.
I laughed out loud when I heard this criminal say this today.They think we dont get it.They may be in for one hell of a surprise.
Predictions I have read in the past two weeks:
Unemployment to hit 10% or higher and to remain high for the next 2 to 4 years (at least).
Commercial real estate may collapse.
We have either high, Carteresque inflation coming in the next two years or we will have deflation which most economists say would be worse than inflation. Either way the effect will be to wipe out wealth.
Taxes will rise as the Bush tax cuts expire plus congress is going to be forced to jack up revenues to try and cope with enormous deficits and they have only taxes and “fees” to rely on to get that done. As a result buying power will decrease, capital will dry up and businesses will stagnate or contract.
We will become even more dependant on foreign oil. Energy prices will rise thus undermining the economy as disposable income is consumed and sent overseas to our enemies.
Iran will acquire nuclear weapons. If they don’t it will be because the regime has been toppled from within or a military strike has crippled their nuclear plants. The more likely of these is the military strike and if that happens $300 a barrel oil is a near certainty in the short run. Ready for $6 a gallon gas?
These are just a few of the scenarios that many “experts” are saying are most likely in the near future. But not to worry. The recession is over. And the least competent, most corrupt, most ideologically driven government in my lifetime is in charge.
The recession is not over.
Bernanke: "Recession Is Over" (Depression Has Just Begun)
Tuesday, September 15. 2009
Posted by Karl Denninger in Federal Reserve at 13:43
Then explain this for credit card charge-offs for the last month:
* Discover Financial Services Reports Aug Master Trust; Net Charge offs 9.16% v 8.43% m/m
* JPMorgan Chase and Co Reports Aug Master Trust; Net charge offs 10.07% v 7.92% m/m
* Bank of America Corp Reports Aug Master Trust; Net Charge offs 14.54% v 13.82% m/m
* Citigroup Inc Reports Aug Master Trust; Net Charge offs 12.1% v 10.03% m/m
* American Express Co Reports Aug Master Trust: Net write offs on managed basis 9.0% v 9.2% m/m (v 9.9% in June)
So out of these, only Amex reported a (tiny) improvement. Everyone else is worse - a lot worse.
As for Bair? Here's what she said:
FDIC's Bair: US financial industry is not much more stable presently,
I'd say its not much more stable when you've got a charge-off rate on revolving credit beyond 10% - and climbing!
Anyone care to dispute "the consumer has no more credit availability" with me again?
Again, I come back to the same point: Credit is contracting as a consequence of borrowing ABILITY, not (so much) desire. All the "liquidity pumping" in the world does NOTHING if there are no willing and able borrowers.
The entire premise of both government and our central bank is that "credit is too tight." In point of fact what we continue to see proof of month after month is that credit has been and still is too loose as borrowers are unable to pay back the money lent, which in turn leads to more and more onerous terms for those who still have money out.
That's deflationary as hell and the longer the game of "pretend" is played the more deflationary it is and the more damage is done to the underlying structure of the economy, as the money blown to "prop up the fable" simply disappears into a puff of smoke but the debt is left behind and continues to be a drag on economic activity.
Bernanke's gambit has failed - we must recognize the mathematical facts, force the bad debt out and clear the system.
Now comes the most thrilling part of this roller coaster ride... super deflation no matter how hard the Feds try to juice it. That’s assuming they have the room to do so. The Chinese are really going to get screwed on this one.
The inflation has started and the depression is just right around the corner.
It’s all Bush’s fault.
/sarcasm
ABC News was celebrating this one today. I will file this under the same file as “green shoots”.
I like that...Policymakers...
A guy comes on tv and tells us we're in a recession...What do we do??? We quit spending money out of fear that there soon won't be any...Shuts down a lot of jobs...
And then the guy again comes on tv and tells us the recession is over...So now the Commerce Dept. is doing it's thing to find out if we are in fact spending money now that the recession is over...And of course, the record will show that we are...I think that's called manipulation...
Problem is, during this recession, the job base didn't just go idle, it got up and left...
We likely never will recover...
I read that they are throwing $250 billion a quarter down a black hole just to keep the system from collapsing presently. When they stop feeding the black hole, the system will collapse.
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