Not good. Slow summer, fewer vacationers. Construction jobs are gone. Retail is a disaster. Malls are empty with 25% vacancy. Manufacturers are cutting back.But the DOW is up! I've noticed in the past weeks that there have been a lot of "DOW 4000" doom-sayers on CNBC et al. Tonight I saw them being castigated by the host for being so wrong. But why is the DOW up? I'm just sure it's being propped up with TARP money, or something. The bear's on the show were being very defensive, and the bull's were saying, "Hey, up is up! The market's up!" The unreality is palpable.
I think that there's a huge amount of money on the sidelines itching for the opportunity to get back in. Lots of traders are sitting around doing nothing and they want back in the game. Some of the less disciplined are believing the "green shoots" crap. Some execs are actually raising their companies' market caps so that they have enough cash to pay the execs' salaries and bonuses before they bail.
This is a sucker's rally.