Posted on 07/13/2009 7:02:56 AM PDT by reaganaut1
In the "US Economics Analyst", Goldman Sachs economist Ed McKelvey predicts the unemployment rate, which averaged 9.2% in the 2nd quarter of 2009 (2009Q2), will increase as follows:
2009Q3 9.7
2009Q4 10.0
2010Q1 10.2
2010Q2 10.3
2010Q3 10.4
2010Q4 10.5
I'd be interested to know what informed Freepers project. If these predictions are correct, the 2010 midterms ought to be ugly for the Dems.
Yes they do. They don't cover people who are no longer looking for work, but that's a more amorphous group.
I wouldn’t believe anything they say.
11% U3 unemployment by December 2009. This fall is gonna get really ugly as the shell games and the three card monte the fed and the treasury has been playing is going to blow up.
.
The unemployment rate isn’t based on the actual list of people receiving jobless benefits, it’s based on a survey of households (hence, it’s given as a rate rather than an actual number like initial jobless claims). It counts everyone who is not employed and has actively looked for work in the last month as unemployed, and calculates the rate based on that.
Way to go Jamie!!!!
That’s a pretty good graph to have on hand to show what a complete flop Obanomics is.
Does not sound like very accurate data to me.
What would you believe that the “real” unemployment number is?
Admitting it is dependent on how you define “unemployment”. Sounds like BJC stating that “It depends on how you define “is””.
Regards,
TF
Keep in mind that the official numbers understate actual unemployment, which includes people who are no longer actively seeking work due to inability to find a job. As recovery begins, these long term unemployed will start looking for work again, thereby keeping the official unemployment number relatively high even as total employment rises.
This will set the Democrats up for claims that the recovery is 'jobless,' a charge they effectively made against Reagan and Republicans in 1982. The long term unemployed tend to vote Democratic, but if discouraged, many will not turn out in 2010 and 2012 or will defect to Republicans as a protest.
Worries about employment and lagging income growth will persist and be major liabilities for the Democrats and Obama even after a recovery is fully underway. The recovery will be anemic because it will be compounded by tax increases, higher regulatory costs, increases in federal spending and deficits, and rising inflation. In 2012, the Republicans may well be able to ride these issues to retake the White House and Congress and effect major changes in national policy.
I would guess it’s as accurate as anything you can get. I mean, who counts as unemployed? The guy who lost his job at age 55, looked for a few months with no luck, and then decided to retire early (albeit at a slightly lower lifestyle than previously planned)? The guy who sits on the sidewalk and hasn’t looked for work in three years? The guy who used to work at Lehman and now has a “temporary” job driving a black cab around NYC?
Obviously you can’t just count everyone in the country who’s not working, so it’s an inexact science.
Have you ever looked at the BLS website. Like working through a wilderness to find the data you want.
It is analyzed, sliced and diced, and rehashed and comes out a “real” numbers. I have serious doubts.
Garbage in Garbage out.
Please explain. How do they gather data on those whose unemployment insurance has ended, and those who are not looking for work? There should be a tabulation of (1) unemployed; (2) those who have lost unemployment insurance; (3) those who no longer seek work. Where does that exist?
You ' got it'.
ping
12pct is now a given — 14pct is quite possible before all is done... honestly, we should now expect to see bho and team to start trying to move the goal posts on economic data — look for “a new and improved” measure of employment from bho b4 the end of the year
The unemployment rate is not based on a tabulation, it’s based on a survey. They don’t have exact numbers, but if they survey enough people they can get a pretty accurate estimate.
Way too conservative.
12 percent is a virtual guarantee, possibly before the end of the year. It will top out at at least 15% next year, with possibilities of getting near 18%.
You can’t monetize your debt, spend a trillion more dollars of borrowed money and raise taxes and think your economy is going to grow. Commercial real estate bust hasn’t even started yet, nor the second wave of residentials.
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