The SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated "discouraged workers" defined away during the Clinton Administration added to the existing BLS estimates of level U-6 unemployment.
Posted on 07/13/2009 7:02:56 AM PDT by reaganaut1
In the "US Economics Analyst", Goldman Sachs economist Ed McKelvey predicts the unemployment rate, which averaged 9.2% in the 2nd quarter of 2009 (2009Q2), will increase as follows:
2009Q3 9.7
2009Q4 10.0
2010Q1 10.2
2010Q2 10.3
2010Q3 10.4
2010Q4 10.5
I'd be interested to know what informed Freepers project. If these predictions are correct, the 2010 midterms ought to be ugly for the Dems.
The real number today is over 16 percent unemployed...
U6
The only reason why those numbers might be close is that we’ll get to a point where those unemployed at the beginning of the crash will no longer be counted. And, of course, we don’t count people who are forced into part-time hours with the same company, or who are forced to take paid vacation, or for that matter, people who were self-employed whose businesses have failed.
I look for Michigan to top 18% by the end of this year. This is after 9+ years of recession here, so you know that all of the “fluff” is long since gone.
I might be the worse econ grad that Wabash College ever produced, but I can see the numbers, and I know the theory (even if my calculus stinks). You can’t put trillions of dollars in new (borrowed) fiscal expenditures into the economy, as well as 7+ trillion from the Fed, and not have some effect. That effect will be inflation, and like 1878, the interest rates will have to rise to take that extra money out of the economy.
Therefore, I predict that the economy will worsen for 6 months, then get “better” for 6 months as it gets back to this point. After that, we are likely to see inflation and corresponding high interest rates, and if those happen “quickly” then the economy will slump again in the last quarter of ‘10.
The problem with unemployment figures is that they don’t seem to cover those whose unemployment benefits have run out. Thus, isn’t the present unemployment figure actually closer to 12%?
Have sympathy for anyone who loses a job. This is a bad time for that. Went through rough patch when I was 55, not fun.
That said, I hope the tough winter lingers for the folks who brought us this. They fully intend to destroy the U.S. and it is up to us to repel the assault.
Regards,
TF
“and like 1878...”
oops... 1978....
Pretty scary data, but I have read their logic and believe it is a pretty accurate assessment of the situation.
There CAN be NO RECOVERY until Obozo is out of office.
Petronski predicts 10.5% unemployment rate by 2009 end
We’ll be at 10.5 by the end of the Q1 2010.
Besides, we’re already at over 18% REAL unemployment figured as it was in the 1930’s.
Obama’s plan is working.
Trophy wife??????? oh my!!!! That is a real stretch, ewwwweeeeeeeweeeeeee.
There will be no such unemployment levels at Goldman-Sachs, though. They’ll be going full-bore, working the carbon credit scam.
I don’t know jack, really, but it seems optimistic to me...
...”Dems are holding off on spending the stimulus money until it will help them politically”
Exactly. Screw the American people, the liberals have an election coming!
Exactly!
That is not true. The unemployment rate is not based on the same data as initial jobless claims (which does come from unemployment insurance filings).
Sound like I am not looking at this correctly.
How do they know when to remove a person from the unemployed list if they no longer qualify for benefits?
You have a very good point. I know as many people who are unemployed and beyond their benefits as I do who are unemployed and receiving benefits (circle of friends, relatives and acquaintenances). A lot of those in the first group are working periodically or part time at a minimum wage job, but have not found any work. Not only do they no longer show up in the unemployment figures, but big government's interest in helping them with re-education or in any other capacity simply disappears.
I cannot remember any other time in my life when so many people were unemployed or extremely underemployed.
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